2007 MAC Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/26/2007
Unless you are a fan of one of the teams that make up the Mid-American Conference, chances are pretty good that you aren't that familiar with the MAC. The two things people might be familiar with are only partly positive. Ben Roethlisberger became a major star out of Miami of Ohio, which is very positive, but Toledo is embroiled in a point shaving investigation over suspicious activities that took place between 2003-2006. That's not so positive.
The stars of the conference last year were the Central Michigan Chippewas, who won the conference and the Motor City Bowl en-route to a 10-4 record. They were also a bettor's best friend, going 12-2 ATS. The Chippewas beat Ohio, the 9-5 winner of the East Division, to take the conference crown.
Last season the conference had two divisions with six teams each. Though the two divisions remain, they become unbalanced this year with the addition of Temple to the East. The lowly Owls have been independent after leaving the Big East. They won't scare anyone - they were just 1-11 last season, and 4-42 in the last four.
Teams on the rise:
Western Michigan. The Broncos were a distant second in the West last year, and they will look to take the step up to the top this year. The defense was amazing last season, and most of the core players return to the unit.
Toledo. The Rockets likely won't win their division, but they should be two or three wins better than their 5-7 mark of last year. It could be a rough first few weeks because of a challenging schedule, but if they survive that it will get significantly easier from there.
Team on the decline:
Central Michigan. The personnel is still solid, but coaching issues cause concerns about whether the Chippewas can maintain the pace of last year. Coach Brian Kelly bolted to Cincinnati before the team's bowl game. Interim coach Jeff Quinn has now joined Kelly's staff. Butch Jones is the new coach. He came from West Virginia where he was receivers coach, but he was tight end coach at Central Michigan previously, so he knows the program. Still, growing pains can be expected when a coach is making his debut. They could easily repeat the division win, but I will want to see proof before I commit to them.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
Temple. This program should be ashamed of themselves. They are truly pathetic, and they do little to make it better. They had one win last year, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they failed to match or exceed that total this year.
Money player (player to bet on):
Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan. The Chippewas have questions, but sophomore QB stud LeFevour should not be one of them. He was amazing as a freshman - 3,000 yards, 64 percent completions, 26 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. A good start to the season by the pivot could ease the transition to a new system for the team.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
Dan Nicholson, QB, Northern Illinois. Not only is Nicholson a first time starter, but he also has to figure out how he and his team are going to make up for the glaring loss of the tiny but mighty Garrett Wolfe to the NFL. It probably won't be a smooth transition, especially early on.
Important betting trends:
Only three of the 12 teams in the conference last year went over the total in more games than they went under.
Buffalo was undervalued by bettors - they were just 2-10, but a very solid 7-4-1 ATS.
Potential conference champions:
Western Michigan. The defense will be almost as good as last year, and QB Tim Hiller returns from a year of injury redshirt. It will be a tough battle, but I favor talent, and the Broncos are unquestionably the most talented team in the conference.
Key Games:
Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Nov. 6. If Western Michigan wants to ascend to the top of the pile they have to show they can beat Central Michigan.
Buffalo at Temple, Sept. 8. With two teams this terrible, it will be fascinating to see which one can manage not to lose.
Projected order of finish:
East - Ohio, Akron, Kent State, Miami, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Temple.
West - Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Ball State, Eastern Michigan.