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2023 Louisiana Derby Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks

by Dave Schwab - 3/21/2023

Louisiana Derby odds and predictions Flavien Prat

On Saturday’s race card at Fair Ground Race Course, the $1 million Louisiana Derby is one of the major graded prep races for the Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs. There are 12 contenders entered in the field for 1 3/16 miles on dirt around this horse track.

I came up with five horses to keep a close eye in the Louisiana Derby with morning line odds at Fair Grounds and my percentage to win.

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Instant Coffee (2-1)

Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, he is breaking out of the No. 2 gate for the Louisiana Derby. His three-year debut was a victory at Fair Grounds in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 21. As a son of Tapit, he covered 1 1/16 miles on dirt in 1:45.12 in front of Two Phils and Confidence Game.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky, and he has raced for Gold Square, LLC. He went 1 1/16 miles on dirt in his last three competitive events at Keeneland, Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds.

Winning Percentage: 55%

Sun Thunder (5-1)

Sired by Into Mischief, the Kentucky-bred colt placed second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 18. He finished fourth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 21 at Oaklawn Park prior to that. Sun Thunder is trained by Kenneth McPeek, and he is starting in this race at No. 4 with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.

He covered at least one mile on dirt in this previous three races at Oaklawn Park and Fair Grounds. However, Sun Thunder is overpriced in his 5-1 odds on the morning line at the Louisiana Derby.

Winning Percentage: 5%

Kingsbarns (6-1)

After not competing as a two-year old, Kingsbarns went two-to-two with pair of first place finishes in a one-mile Allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 14 and 1 miles and 40 yards in a Maiden Special Weight race at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 12. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Flavien Prat at the No. 6 gate in the Louisiana Derby.

Kingsbarns is upgrading the distance and grade for this race. However, his pedigree of Uncle Mo going back to Indian Charlie sets up well in the backstretch.

Winning Percentage: 20%

Tapit’s Conquest (10-1)

This Kentucky-bred colt is also trained by Brad Cox, and he raced at Saratoga, Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. He finished second at Fairs Grounds in a 1 1/16 miles Allowance race on Jan. 21 before placing fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 18 at this same horse track. At least I could say that Tapit’s Conquest has home track advantage at Fair Grounds.

He is starting the Louisiana Derby at No. 9, with jockey Manuel Franco getting the ride. As the son of Tapit, he has the potential to finish in the money in this race.

Winning Percentage: 15%

Shopper’s Revenge (12-1)

Starting at the No. 1 gate, with Ricardo Santana as his jockey, Shopper’s Revenge is long odds on the morning line for the Louisiana Derby. He is trained by Steve Asmussen and he has a rating of 5.89 for Horse Racing Nation. As a three-year old colt, Shopper’s Revenge finished second in a 1 1/16-mile Allowance race at Oaklawn on Feb. 18 after the winner Airtime. He won a 1 1//16 Maiden Special Weight at this track on Jan. 14 of this year.

Sired by Tapit, he is a live longshot to make some noise in the backstretch of this race, but he will probably finish second or third if breaks fall his way.

Winning Percentage: 5%

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