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2023 Los Angeles Chargers Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2023

Los Angeles Chargers predictions Austin Ekeler

I think the Idea of The Chargers has always been better than the Reality.

Whenever someone talks about the Chargers, the first word that comes to mind is “talent”. Any media bobblehead talking about Los Angeles will, within the first 30 seconds of discussing them, mention their “talent”.

It was the same thing we heard over and over again during the Philip Rivers Era. Each year the Chargers were a trendy Super Bowl pick because of their “talent”.

Those Chargers never won so much as a conference title, much less a Super Bowl.

And looking at Year 4 of the Justin Herbert Era, I don’t see any reason why this modern group of “talented” Chargers is going to be the one to break through and take the franchise to its first Super Bowl in 30 years.

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 2023 OFFENSE

The Joe Lombardi Experiment lasted all of one season for the Chargers. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore brings a creative playbook and an intriguing track record to the West Coast. He will be tasked with guiding an attack that has finished in the Top 11 in total offense six straight years.

All the focus is on Herbert and the passing attack. I think that Moore’s first job is to fix the running game.

Los Angeles finished No. 30 in rushing yards and No. 30 in yards per rush last season. They were one of only four teams to average below 4.0 yards per rush.

The offensive line is weak and a liability. A healthy Rashawn Slater will be a massive boon to a group that simply couldn’t push opponents off the ball.

Keenan Allen ain’t gettin’ any younger and missed seven games last year. Mike Williams couldn’t step up in Allen’s absence and missed four games of his own while playing at less than 100 percent in several others.

Rookie Quentin Johnson will be an X-factor.

Austin Ekeler is unhappy with his contract and is still playing for below market rate. His 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons lead the NFL.

Moore was masterful in his time in Dallas, producing two No. 1 total offenses in four years. He has a much weaker line but a much better quarterback. How he adjusts will be telling.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 2023 DEFENSE

Brandon Staley came to Los Angeles with a defensive background. So, it is curious that his stop units have finished no better than No. 20 in total defense or points allowed each of his two seasons.

Joey Bosa is seemingly always hurt. He has made 10 or fewer starts in three of his last five years. When he plays, he is great. But he appeared in only five games last season and only seven in 2018. He’s injury prone.

Khalil Mack is no longer a demigod. He hasn’t topped 10 sacks in any of his past four seasons.

New inside linebacker Eric Kendricks is looking for a fresh start, and Ken Murray had his fifth-year option declined. They will support a run defense that gets little help from a below-average line.

There is promise in the secondary with Asante Samuel and Derwin James. J.C. Jackson was a total bust last season after inking a five-year, $82.5 million deal. Getting him back at full strength after missing 10 games last year with a tendon injury is crucial.

As bad as the Chargers offense was running the ball, the Chargers defense was even worse stopping the run.

Los Angeles was No. 28 in the league in rushing yards allowed and dead last in yards per attempt, allowing a ridiculous 5.4 yards per rush.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 2023 SCHEDULE

Los Angeles has two Monday night games, two Sunday night games, and one game apiece on a Thursday and on a Saturday. You can tell they are a media darling because of their primetime placement.

Don’t forget about those four trips to the Eastern and Central time zones for early kickoffs.

This schedule features a lot of short weeks and a lot of letdown situations. I haven’t seen anything from this group (or Staley) that makes me think they are strong enough mentally to handle a slate like that.

Sun, Sep 10     4:25 PM            vs. Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 17     1:00 PM            @ Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 24     1:00 PM            @ Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 1         4:05 PM            vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Mon, Oct 16    8:15 PM            vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 22      4:25 PM            @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Oct 29      8:20 PM            vs. Chicago Bears

Mon, Nov 6      8:15 PM            @ New York Jets

Sun, Nov 12     4:05 PM            vs. Detroit Lions

Sun, Nov 19     1:00 PM            @ Green Bay Packers

Sun, Nov 26     8:20 PM            vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Dec 3        1:00 PM            @ New England Patriots

Sun, Dec 10     4:25 PM            vs. Denver Broncos

Thu, Dec 14     8:15 PM            @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sat, Dec 23       8:00 PM            vs. Buffalo Bills

Sun, Dec 31     4:25 PM            @ Denver Broncos

Sun, Jan 7         7:00 PM            vs. Kansas City Chiefs

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

We have to accept that maybe the Chargers just aren’t as good as people want them to be.

Los Angeles has an imperfect roster with some obvious holes. Their skill position guys are capable of high-level play, and Herbert is the truth. But they have glaring weaknesses across the offensive and defensive lines, and that, along with a shaky head coach, will be the culprits for their erratic play.

Basically, this team can’t run the ball and they can’t stop the run. They are soft.

The Chargers won six games by one score last year and beat their Pythagorean Wins Expectation by 1.6 games. That puts them in line for a regression this season. As does their more difficult strength of schedule.

When I look at this team, I don’t see a group that is ready to step forward and pose a legit threat to the Chiefs. In fact, I think Denver has surpassed the Chargers this offseason, and I have Los Angeles pegged for third place and missing the playoffs.

Until I see the Chargers “talent” translate into something substantial, I’m not buying this group. I’ll take them to go ‘under’ 9.5 wins.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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