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2023 Las Vegas Raiders Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/1/2023

Las Vegas Raiders predictions Josh Jacobs

There’s nothing like being down to your last chance in Vegas.

Last job. Last opportunity. Last bet. Last $20.

That hyper-awareness; like a trapped animal. The blood-draining reality of the long odds staring you in the face. That feeling of heat radiating through your body. The paralyzing intensity of each single breath as time becomes incohesive.

This season may be the last chance for Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo.

These two men are both multimillionaires who will never know the desperation and panic of being down and out in Vegas. Even if they fail, they will bumble and stumble into undeserved millions more in some Peter Principal posting, with McDaniels slumping back to the assistant ranks and Garoppolo winding down his career as a backup.

However, the legacy of each man is on the line this year. That’s not something to be trifled with.

If McDaniels implodes (again), he likely won’t ever get another NFL head coaching job and will be a punchline. His estate will one of career failure.

The same can be said for the oft-injured Garoppolo. This may be the 32-year-old’s last chance to establish himself as a franchise quarterback. Hell, this might be his last opportunity to be a starter in this league.

How this unlikely pair fare this season will set the tone for a franchise that still seems directionless four years into their Vegas vacation.

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 2023 OFFENSE

For someone considered an offensive “guru”, McDaniels sure does struggle a lot without Tom Brady.

McDaniels has been an offensive coordinator six different seasons without Brady. His attacks have finished, on average, No. 19 in total offense and No. 19 in scoring. Not great!

It also took McDaniels just one season to ruin franchise stalwart Derek Carr and then run Carr out of town. Garoppolo was brought in to replace Carr. And as he is known to do, Garoppolo promptly got injured.

The word on the street is that Garoppolo will be healthy by training camp and ready to start the season as the Raiders QB1.

Garoppolo won’t be short on weapons. DaVante Adams is still as good as it gets. And Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow and a stacked tight end room provide enough ancillary options for this to be one of the league’s most diverse passing games.

Las Vegas has done a solid job of turning over its offensive line over the past three seasons. I wouldn’t consider it a strength. It’s also not a weakness.

The Raiders managed to trap running back Josh Jacobs with the franchise tag. He led the league in rushing last year. And since Las Vegas clearly has no intention of signing him long term, they will likely run him into the ground this season.

Be wary: Jacobs had 340 carries and 393 total touches last season. Historically, running backs that cross those thresholds one season have a habit of getting injured the following year. If Jacobs goes down, the Raiders don’t have a good Plan B.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 2023 DEFENSE

This is the area where things could go off the rails.

The Raiders have gone through one of the longest runs of defensive incompetence in league history. They haven’t finished higher than No. 20 in scoring defense since 2006 and haven’t finished in the top half of the league in points allowed since the 2002 Super Bowl team.

I don’t see them snapping either of those streaks with this group.

Let’s start with the positives. Maxx Crosby is an absolute beast. Fellow end Chandler Jones has Pro Bowl talent. And if Top 10 pick Tyree Wilson can quickly mature, the pass rush will be a major strength.

That’s it. That’s all the positive on this side of the ball.

The interior line and linebackers are weak. The secondary has no high-end talent and is full of journeymen and replacement-level participants. Depth is nonexistent.

But don’t worry. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is here to lead the way. Just ignore the fact that the four defenses and three teams that he has led have finished an average of No. 23 in total D.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 2023 SCHEDULE

Week 1: 9/10 at Denver Broncos, 4:25 PM, CBS

Week 2: 9/17 at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM, CBS

Week 3: 9/24 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 PM, NBC

Week 4: 10/1 at Los Angeles Chargers, 4 PM, CBS

Week 5: 10/9 vs. Green Bay Packers (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 6: 10/15 vs. New England Patriots, 4 PM, CBS

Week 7: 10/22 at Chicago Bears, 1 PM, FOX

Week 8: 10/30 at Detroit Lions (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 9: 11/5 vs. New York Giants, 4:25 PM, FOX

Week 10: 11/12 vs. New York Jets, 8:20 PM, NBC

Week 11: 11/19 at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM, CBS

Week 12: 11/26 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 PM, CBS

Week 13: Bye Week

Week 14: 12/10 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 4 PM, FOX

Week 15: 12/14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon

Week 16: 12/25 at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM, CBS

Week 17: 12/31 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM, CBS

Week 18: TBD vs. Denver Broncos, TBD, TBD

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

The Raiders were better than their record last year. They lost eight games by one score and had five losses by three points or less. They finished 2.1 wins below their Pythagorean Wins Expectation, and their defensive yards per point allowed also put them in a regression zone.

I think Las Vegas will be a little better at the betting window than they will be on the field. They are just 32-34 against the spread over the last four seasons, and it is always going to be tough to make a buck on the ‘hometown’ team.

They are going to be dangerous because of their offensive capabilities. Suggesting efficiency on that side of the ball supposes that Garoppolo will be healthy and effective. That’s a big supposition.

Vegas’ schedule doesn’t do them any favors, either. The AFC West is stacked, and they cross over with the uber-competitive AFC East. That’s 10 games against 10 really good teams. Tilts at Chicago and at Detroit won’t be easy. Neither will an early season game against the Steelers.

In fact, the Raiders play only two teams that I currently have slotted below them in my power rankings: Indianapolis and Green Bay.

I loved the ‘under’ on this team’s season win total at its open of 7.5. But news of Garoppolo’s injury this offseason helped drop the number to its current level of 6.5. That’s a solid number, and I wouldn’t bother with it.

But if I needed to make a play on this one number and was down to my last $20, I would throw it on the ‘under’ and root for The End for McDaniels and Garoppolo.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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