Kobalt Tools 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 03/06/2008
Carl Edwards will attempt to win his third Sprint Cup race in a row while Joe Gibbs Racing, Tony Stewart and Home Depot will commemorate 10 years together as primary sponsor of the black-and-orange No. 20 car this weekend for the Atlanta-based company as NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stops at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 500.
At AMS this weekend chances are good that fans will have another day of racing in the rain. But if rain holds off for any length of time they are likely to see some of the most exciting racing that NASCAR has to offer. Since the inception of restrictor plates in 1988 the "Fastest" sobriquet has been applied to Atlanta's 1.54-mile track. With 24-degree banks on the turns and five-degree flat straightaways, AMS is built for speed.
Gamblers should note that at AMS victories by "marquee" drivers are the norm rather than the exception. There have been 97 Cup races and 61 have been won by future or past Cup champions. Last year Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports won both races at AMS but, as we learned last weekend at Las Vegas, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Who will win the Kobalt Tools 500?
Sprint Cup teams have yet to race the Car of Today (CoT) on tracks where they have not been tested. Last fall teams had two days of testing on the 1.5-mile oval so the drivers have a good idea what they'll face on Sunday.
One thing that is plainly obvious to fans of NASCAR is that drivers of the CoT are still having difficulty handling the new design and engineering. Rousch Fenway Racing seems to have done the best job of making adjustments from last year's dismal showing in CoT races to this year; last week RFR drivers also finished third (Biffle) and seventh (Ragan).
In fact, Carl Edwards' second win in a row hammers home the fact that RFR knows not only how to handle the CoT, but how to manage the race by gradually gaining ground during the race and fine-tuning adjustments as the track changes. Teammates Edwards and Matt Kenseth traded positions for first during the race until Jeff Gordon knocked Kenseth out of the race after restart coming of caution with five laps to go in the race.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is quickly becoming the most productive driver in the HMS stable. He's back in the Top 10 in Sprint Cup standings thanks to his second place finish at LSVM last weekend. Junior has always said he loves racing at Atlanta and his results back him up; in 17 Cup starts at AMS Junior has recorded one win, one pole, seven top five and nine top 10 finishes. Certainly, Junior is driving his HMS car better than Mears, Gordon and Johnson and considering that the last time HMS failed to have at least one driver in the top 10 at AMS was in November 1999.
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (15/2)
Kobalt Tools 500 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Kobalt Tools 500 but here are a few matchups I really like to cash on Sunday. After fate's cruel, wheel-spinning, crash-inducing, re-start knocked our pick Kenseth from second to 20th place to round out a thoroughly disappointing 0-2 Sunday on my matchup picks and 0-1 on my long shot I am reminded that that the season is still young with plenty of races left. Over the wall I am 3-5 with my NASCAR picks to the tune of -4.30 units. Certainly things can't get any worse at AMS.
Long Odds Value Pick
Juan Pablo Montoya finished in the top 20 last weekend but what is much more impressive is that he rallied from almost 2-laps back at the mid-point of the UAW 400 and finished 19th on the lead lap in a back-up car. Considering that two of Montoya's top-five finishes last year were at Atlanta and Texas and that Montoya had the fastest recorded time at Phoenix International Raceway in testing this Tuesday at 131.459 mph AMS is as good a place as any for JPM to win. This week look for Montoya driving the No. 42 Big Red Dodge for the first time this season.
Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya (50/1)
Square Tire Pick
Kyle Busch (+1.25)/Jeff Gordon (-1.55)
Jeff Gordon is a name that even casual fans of the sport will recognize while the younger Busch might be less familiar to those who seek victory lap winners. I think this has as much to do with Gordon being this large a favorite over Sprint Cup points leader Kyle Busch (thanks to penalties by NASCAR against Edwards after LVMS race). Indeed Busch has had a great year to date posting two fourth place finishes at Daytona and California and an 11th place at LVMS. Gordon, meanwhile, has two DNFs in three races and after last weekend's crash into the wall I love Kyle Busch to finish Atlanta ahead of Gordon.
Pick! Busch (+1.25)
*Kobalt Tools 500 Odds- Sun, Mar 9th (2:16 pm EST)
Atlanta Motor Speedway, GA
All drivers have action. Singles Only. Max $600
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Carl Edwards 11/2
Casey Mears 40/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/2
Dale Jarrett 125/1
Dario Franchitti 100/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 150/1
David Ragan 125/1
David Reutimann 80/1
Denny Hamlin 18/1
Elliott Sadler 65/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Jeff Burton 28/1
Jeff Gordon 13/2
Jeremy Mayfield 150/1
Jimmie Johnson 11/2
Joe Nemechek 150/1
John Andretti 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Kasey Kahne 16/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kevin Harvick 28/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Martin Truex Jr. 22/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Skinner 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 150/1
Reed Sorenson 50/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 80/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Tony Stewart 17/2
Travis Kvapil 125/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 40/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog