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2024-25 Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/16/2024

Kentucky Wildcats basketball predictions Lamont Butler

The Kentucky Wildcats fell way short of their goal last season after a first-round exit in March. After finishing the regular season 23-9 with big time wins over Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn down the stretch Kentucky was a huge let down when it came down to tournament play. They were eliminated by Texas A&M in their first game of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. With that loss, they entered the big dance as the 3-Seed in the South Region with a first-round matchup against 14-Seed Oakland. The Wildcats would go on to drop their first-round matchup 80-76 as the Golden Grizzlies pulled off an incredible upset. Upsets were a bit of a theme for the Wildcats last season, as they lost to Oakland and Texas A&M in the tournaments, but they also lost to Texas A&M, UNC Wilmington and LSU during the regular season.

Despite the disappointing results, the Wildcats were still a solid team. They finished second in the conference in scoring, as they averaged 89 PPG. That mark ranked second nationally as well, while they led the nation in 3P%, shooting 40.9% from beyond the arc. Their 49.5% FG% was sixth in the nation, and their 17.5 APG were second in the conference. On defense, it was a different story. Kentucky ranked 12th in the conference, allowing 79.7 PPG, ranking 345th nationally. They allowed over 12 offensive RPG, which was the third worst mark in the conference, but they did lead the conference in BPG, averaging over six blocks per contest. Antonio Reeves led the team in scoring, averaging 20.2 PPG while shooting 44.7% from deep. Rob Dillingham was a great compliment to Reeves, as he averaged 15.2 PPG. Reed Sheppard and Tre Mitchell were the other two Wildcats to average double-digit PPG, with Sheppard leading the team with a 52.1% 3P%.

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Kentucky Wildcats Key Additions/Losses

Reeves, Dillingham, and Sheppard are all in the NBA, while Mitchell graduated, but the biggest loss of the offseason for the Kentucky Wildcats was John Calipari, as the longtime Wildcat jumped ship and took over as the head coach for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Leaving with Calipari was Zvonimir Ivisic, D.J. Wagner (9.9 PPG), and Adou Thiero (7.2 PPG). Depth pieces Ugonna Onyenso (Kansas State), Jordan Burks (Georgetown), and Joey Hart (Ball State) all found new homes.

To replace Calipari, Kentucky brought in former BYU coach and Kentucky Wildcat forward Mark Pope. Pope did his job in the transfer portal, bringing nine new players, giving Kentucky the fifth best transfer class as they reshape the roster. Their highest rated transfer is Jaxson Robinson, who will be suiting up for his fourth different team. Robinson is following Pope from BYU, where he averaged 14.2 PPG and shot over 90% from the free-throw line. Joining Robinson on this new look Kentucky team is center Amari Williams who averaged 12.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG at Drexel, forwards Ansley Almonor (16.4 PPG with FDU), Brandon Garrison (7.5 PPG with Oklahoma State), and Andrew Carr (13.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG with Wake Forest), as well as guards Kerr Kriisa (11 PPG with WVU), Lamont Butler (9.3 PPG with SDSU), Otega Oweh (11.4 PPG with Oklahoma), and Koby Brea (11.1 PPG with Dayton).

Kentucky Wildcats X-Factors

The New Regime- The Kentucky Wildcats have not won a National Championship since 2012 and have not reached the Final Four since 2015. Mark Pope is returning to Lexington with high hopes of bringing Kentucky back to relevance in this new Transfer Portal Era of college sports. He did more than enough this offseason replacing and rebuilding this roster. Robinson and Carr will be quite the scoring duo for Kentucky, while Butler is one of the best defensive guards in the nation. Mark Pope doesn’t appear to need any time. He went out and got a lot of talent and has Kentucky in a spot to compete a tough conference.

Kentucky Wildcats Notable Games

Home- #21 Florida, #13 Texas A&M, #2 Alabama, #16 Arkansas, #12 Tennessee, #11 Auburn

Away/Neutral- #7 Duke, #6 Gonzaga, #12 Tennessee, #24 Ole Miss, #19 Texas, #2 Alabama

Kentucky Wildcats Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +4000

Final Four: +950

Conference Winner: +2700

Wooden Award: Jaxson Robinson- +8000

Wooden Award: Andrew Carr- +18000

AP Top 25- 23rd

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 14th

KenPom- 42nd

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Predictions

Despite all the offseason additions, there is too much change for me to believe in this Wildcats team. Pope did what he could this offseason, but the Southeastern Conference is too tough, and I don’t see Kentucky having the tools to make a run in March. It also doesn’t help that a good chunk of the transfers brought in will only have a year in Lexington as graduate transfers. They have big games early in the season against Duke and Gonzaga that should be telling at what the potential of this team is, but I think this will be a down year for Pope and the Wildcats as they are a middle of the pack team in the Southeastern Conference. I would stay away from any and all team futures for this squad as you will be highly disappointed.

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