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2024 Kentucky Oaks Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Joey House - 5/2/2024

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.

As the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks approach their 150th edition, they have become iconic events that are synonymous with American horse racing culture. Although sometimes overshadowed by the Derby, the Kentucky Oaks is a Grade 1 race that stands as the richest event for 3-year-old fillies in the United States, boasting an impressive $1.5 million purse. These races can captivate audiences year after year, highlighting their cultural significance and establishing them as cherished components of American history. Their endurance and continued success are a testament to their status as beloved traditions in American sports.

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History of the Oaks:

The Kentucky Oaks was first held on May 19, 1875, just two days after the inaugural running of the Kentucky Derby. It is the longest continuously run stakes race in the United States that is restricted to three-year-old fillies. The Oaks has been held exclusively at Churchill Downs and is traditionally run on the day before the Derby.

The Kentucky Oaks was modeled after the Oaks Stakes in England and was initially contested at a distance of 1 1/2 miles. The race was reduced to 1 1/4 miles in the late 19th century and then further reduced to 1 1/16 miles for most of the 20th century. However, its present distance of 1 1/8 miles has been in place since 1982.

Race Analysis

This is widely recognized as one of the most competitive fields in the illustrious history of the Kentucky Oaks. No fewer than six of the 14 entries, ranging from the morning line favorite Tarifa (7-2) to 15-1 longshot Where's My Ring, are legitimate contenders to win the "Lilies for the Fillies". We'll take a look at the top contenders and analyze their path to victory.

PP#3- Where's My Ring (15-1) Val Brinkerhoff (Tr)/Jose Lezcano (J)

Where's My Ring shipped from the California circuit her last time out and ran a masterful race, besting the field in the 2024 Gazelle (G3) by 4 lengths. She did, however, struggle against the California competition, some of which she'll face in the Oaks.

PP#5- Thorpedo Anna (5-1) Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.

In her four career races, she has three wins and a second-place. Won an allowance at Churchill as a 2-year-old. Her last time out was a four-length win in the Fantasy (G2).

PP#8- Tarifa (7-2) Brad Cox/Flavien Prat

The morning-line favorite, Tarifa is the daughter of Bernardini, a 5-time stakes winner himself. Tarifa has won four out of five, including her last three races. Included in that run were the 2024 Rachel Alexandra (G2) and 2024 Fair Ground Oaks (G2). A very strong contender.

PP#11- Ways and Means (5-1) Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione

Ways and Means had two troubled trips this year that impeded her path to victory and caused her to come in second her last two times out. She has the speed and class to compete but needs a clean start to do her best. Starting out wide may help her to do just that.

PP#13- Just F Y I (9-2) Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado

When you have a Triple Crown winner as a father, big things are expected of you. So far, Just F Y I has not disappointed, with a win at the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and a close second in the 2024 Ashland (G1).

PP#14- Leslie's Rose (4-1) Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.

Leslie's Rose was the one to beat her post-position neighbor, Just F Y I, in Ashland at the beginning of April. She has three wins and one third-place on her four-race resume.

As you can see, just from the favorites alone this promises to be a thrilling race. The outside posts (9 and up) have had the advantage in nine of the last 12 runnings of the Oaks. Interestingly enough, favorites have not fared well here, with only two winning in the last 12 years.

Recommended $100 Wager

If you have a $100 bankroll for this race, this is how I would break up the wagers. Just F Y I is my favorite to win and therefore will be the focal point of the vast majority of wagers.

$2 Exacta Key Box: 13 with 3,5,8,14 Total cost: $16

This puts Just F Y I in either 1st or 2nd place, with the four other horses finishing in one of those two spots.

$1 Trifecta Key Box: 13 and 14 with 3,5,8,13,14 Total cost: $72

This keys on both Just F Y I and Leslie's Road. So, as long as one of those horses finishes In the Money, along with the other horses in the selected pool, we hit our trifecta. This is my favorite wager to make, as it forces me to choose a favorite, but doesn't box me in if for some reason my favorite starts bad and rallies to finish ITM but not win.

$6 Exacta Box: 13,14 Total cost: $12

This has Just F Y I and Leslie's Road both finishing up top in first and second.

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