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Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies and Expert Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 4/30/2024

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

The world of Horse Racing is one that never disappoints, with races taking place on a daily basis throughout the year. However, one event draws more eyes than the rest, and that is the Kentucky Derby. Navigating the world of Horse Racing can be complicated, as there are a variety of betting markets available for the big event. The Kentucky Derby takes place on the first Saturday of May every year, and for most horses this will be the longest race they have ever run. The 1.25-mile track gives plenty of time for comebacks, and all the available betting markets must be carefully examined before placing your bet. Here are 5 tips and tricks to maximize your chances at a profitable Saturday.

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Stick to the Favorites:

The Kentucky Derby is almost always won by one of the top 3 horses, as the longer races gives the favorites a better chance to overcome a slow start. The Kentucky Derby winner has come in with +700 odds or shorter to win in 8 of the last 10 races, with four of the winners having +200 or shorter odds. The big payouts on the underdogs can be tempting, but a solid payout on one of the favorites is usually the way to go. The 2021 and 2019 winners came in with +1100 and +2900 odds, respectively, but they were only declared the champion thanks to a drug issue, and a controversial disqualification. It’s very unlikely that an underdog will get a clean victory, and relying on last second swings is an unreliable method of wagering.

Understand the Betting Options:

Everyone knows how to bet on the winner of the Kentucky Derby, but there is still plenty of money to be made in the other markets. A ‘Place Bet’ is a bet on your prospective horse to Place, which means they finish in the top two. This market will have much shorter odds than the winner market, but it can still offer a solid payout on most of the top horses. Aside from a big disqualification, the favorites will almost always finish near the top, and the plus money payout on the entire field gives you plenty of options when making this bet. To take a step further, a bet on a horse ‘To Show’ means they will finish inside the top 3. It doesn’t matter if the horse you back finishes in first, second, or third. If you bet on them to Show, your wager will be declared a winner. The ‘To Show’ market is where the favorites often start requiring juice to be laid on a bet, taking away the best part about Horse Race betting, the big payouts.

The difference between a win, place, or show bet may seem minute, but the vastly different odds and payouts can be a big difference-maker in the long run. Before placing a bet on the Kentucky Derby, you must carefully evaluate all the betting options on your prospective horse, or risk leaving money on the table with a softer line.

Don’t Underestimate Stamina:

The Kentucky Derby will be the longest race most, if not all, of these horses have ever run, making stamina just as important as straight-line speed. These horses haven’t had their stamina publicly tested, but luckily enough stamina is a gene passed down from the parents. All the big names in the Kentucky Derby have had their mothers, or more likely fathers, run in the race. By looking at which horses were able to survive the grueling mile and a quarter race, you can vastly improve your chances when selecting which offspring to back on Saturday.

Avoid the Complicated Props:

The sportsbooks will look to tempt you with big payouts on the exact order of the top horses, but beware of this trap. It is one thing to select whether or not a horse will finish inside the top 2 or 3, but selecting the exact finishing order and position is a far tougher task. It may seem like a good idea to predict the favorite to win and bolster your payout with another horse to finish second, but that greatly diminishes the likelihood of a winning wager. Instead, you can place multiple bets on a ‘Show’ or ‘Place’ finish for multiple horses and happily take your profits while avoiding the trap of a massive exact order payout.

Remember the Jockeys:

While the horses will steal the spotlight, they are nothing without a competent jockey on their back. Unlike the horses, who can only compete in the Kentucky Derby once when they are three years old, jockeys may have plenty of experience in this race. It is one thing to have a strong horse. However, if the hands guiding the animal aren’t secure, it is extremely unlikely the horse will win. Jockey John Velazquez already has three Kentucky Derby victories under his belt and was robbed of a fourth in 2021 thanks to a disqualification. While doing adequate research on the horses is crucial, it is even more critical that the jockeys are not ignored for this big race.

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