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Handicapping the 2024 Kentucky Derby Trainers

by Joey House - 4/30/2024

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby trainers Todd Pletcher

As the iconic Kentucky Derby rapidly approaches, 16 trainers are all dreaming of the same thing: finishing first in the historic 150th edition of the "Run for the Roses" and securing their place in horse racing history. This year's race is special for many reasons, one of which is the large number of first-time trainers competing against some of the most accomplished horsemen in the game today. No fewer than seven of these Kentucky Derby rookies will have entries competing this Saturday.

One name that is conspicuously missing is the trainer of the last two Triple Crown winners, Californian Bob Baffert. The 6-time Derby winner was suspended for two years by Churchill Downs racing officials for 2021 Medina Spirit's failed drug test after his win, which caused the runner-up Mandaloun to be named winner of the Kentucky Derby. The suspension was extended another year last July by the stewards in Kentucky. Baffert-trained Muth, winner of the Arkansas Derby, petitioned the Kentucky racing officials for an exemption from the suspension, but that was denied a few weeks ago.

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In my analysis of the trainers, I have put them in post-position order with their horse and the early odds.

  1. Danny Gargan (Dornoch 20-1): Danny Gargan, a Louisville native, made his Kentucky Derby debut five years ago with Tax, who finished 14th in the 2019 "Run For the Roses". Gargan has 10 graded stakes wins, although none higher than Grade 2. Dornoch beat rival contender Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) as well.
  2. Chad Brown (Sierra Leone 3-1): A four-time winner of the prestige Eclipse Award for Most Outstanding Trainer, Chad Brown has yet to add a Kentucky Derby win to his success-laden resume. He has had seven entries in six runnings, with two finishes in the money (ITM), with his best race coming in 2018, when the Brown-trained colt Good Magic finished second to the eventual Triple Crown champion Justify. Sierra Leone, the winner of his last two stake races, gives Brown an excellent chance of nabbing his first Derby win.
  3. Kenneth G. McPeek (Mysitk Dan 20-1): Kenny McPeek burst on the scene with Tejano Run's second-place finish in 1995 to Thunder Gulch. Sadly, that was his best finish, with the next seven entries spanning 23 years never finishing higher than 5th. McPeek has won both the second and third leg of the Triple Crown, and he just needs a Derby victory to complete the cycle. Mystik Dan won the 2024 Southwest Stakes (G3) and solidified his Derby berth with a 3rd-place finish in the 2024 Arkansas Derby (G1)
  4. Brad H. Cox (Catching Freedom 8-1): While 2-time Eclipse winner Brad Cox technically has a Kentucky Derby win on his resume, he didn't win it but had the victory awarded to Mandaloun in 2021 after Medina Spirit failed a post-race drug screen. Cox is currently second in North America among trainers with 2024 winnings north of $7.9 million. His entries have a 62% ITM rate in 255 starts this season. He's had the post-time favorite twice in the nine entries over three Derbys, with each favorite finishing in third. Catching Freedom gives Cox a very solid opportunity to capture the Derby title the old-fashioned way, crossing the finish line first.
  5. Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. (Catalytic 30-1): Saffie Joseph Jr, who hails from the Caribbean island of Barbados, is entering his third Kentucky Derby. In each of his previous two races, his horses finished 8th in the Covid 2020 year and 16th in 2022. Catalytic earned enough points to qualify for the "Run for the Roses" with his 2nd-place finish to Fierceness in the 2024 Florida Derby (G1).
  6. D. Wayne Lukas (Just Steel 20-1): For trainers who are feeling disheartened by poor performances at the Kentucky Derby, they need to look no further than D. Wayne Lukas for inspiration. It took the Hall-of-Fame trainer 10 entries over seven races before he finally won the first of 4 Derbys with Winning Colors in 1988. From 1981 to 2000, Lukas had 38 entries, 4 victories, one second-place, and five third-place finishes while entering 19 consecutive Kentucky Derbies. He makes his first appearance in six years at Churchill Downs with the seasoned Just Steel, who has two wins and six runner-up finishes on his 11-race jacket.
  7. Whit Beckman (Honor Marie 20-1): Another Louisville native, Beckman is a first-time trainer with a lengthy study under Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Eoin Harty. His maiden entry, Honor Marie, won the 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and placed in the 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2).
  8. Brad H. Cox (Just A Touch 10-1): This is Cox's second entry of three horses. Just A Touch, who was sired by the most recent Triple Crown winner the great Justify, won his first time out and then finished second in both the 2024 Gotham (G3) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
  9. Brad H. Cox (Encino 20-1): The final entry of Cox's bid to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, Encino earned his way into the field with a win in the 2024 Lexington Stakes (G3).
  10. Daisuke Takayanagi (TO Password 30-1): One of the two Japanese trainers, Takayanagi will be making his Kentucky Derby debut. TO Password is 2-for-2 in his career, including a win at the Fukuryu Stakes that propelled him through the Japan "Road to the Kentucky Derby".
  11. Yoshito Yahagi (Forever Young 10-1): The two entries from Japan are neighbors in the post. Forever Young is the second Yahgai-trained thoroughbred to qualify for the Derby. Last year, Continuar had earned a starting position but was scratched by Yahagi two days before the race due to a lack of fitness and poor training. Yahagi has trained the first two Breeders' Cup winners who came from Japan. Forever Young has impressed many with his dominant performances in Japan and the Middle East and looks to break the winless streak of Japanese trainers in the Kentucky Derby (0-4).
  12. Steven Asmussen (Track Phantom 20-1): In trends to follow for the Kentucky Derby, it's becoming a running joke (no pun intended) that you should insta-fade Steve Asmussen's entries. In 25 entries that have spanned 23 years and 16 Derbies, Asmussen's horses have been the bridesmaids five times (3 second-place and 2 third-place finishes) but never the bride. Luckily for Asmussen, winning the Derby is not a prerequisite for being elected into the Hall of Fame, which he entered in 2016. A great trainer with some of the most influential mounts in the past quarter of a century (Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, and Gun Runner to name a few), Asmussen looks to end his winless streak with Track Phantom, the winner of the 2023 Gun Runner (LS) and 2024 Lecomte (G3).
  13. Larry Demerrite (West Saratoga 50-1): One of the seven international trainers, Demerrite moved to the United States from the Bahamas 48 years ago. He will only be the second Black trainer to have a Derby entry since 1951, joining Hank Allen with Northern Wolf in 1989. Demeritte hasn't had many races on the big stage, with his most significant wins coming in a pair of Grade 3 stakes. If there was ever a "Rocky" theme in horse racing, West Saratoga would be it. Sold for $11,000 in 2022, if he could pull off the miracle upset he would stand to win $3.1 million.
  14. Michael McCarthy (Endlessly 30-1): McCarthy will make his Derby debut with a horse (Endlessly) that has never raced on dirt but has won his last two starts on Synthetic-Fast tracks in the 2024 El Camino Real Derby (LS) and 2024 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). McCarthy won the Preakness in 2021 with Rombauer, with a strategy that skipped the Kentucky Derby to focus on the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. It was debated between McCarthy and Endlessly's owners whether to repeat that strategy, before deciding to take the plunge at Churchill Downs.
  15. Chad Brown (Domestic Product 30-1): This is Brown's second entry into Saturday's "Run For the Roses". Domestic Product earned his entry into the Derby with a second-place finish in the 2024 Holy Bull (G3) and a win in the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
  16. Victor Barboza (Grand Mo the First 50-1): Victor Barboza has been a trainer for the past decade and will make his Derby Debut with Grand Mo the First. He had a successful 2023 season where he earned over $2 million in winnings. His success rate in 2024 is currently 41% (16 wins, 10 places, 15 shows). He also has never won a Grade 1 stakes race. Grand Mo the First, after winning his first two races, has come in third four consecutive times.
  17. Todd Pletcher (Fierceness 5-2): Already the record holder for most Derby starters with 64, Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher will look to become only the seventh trainer with three or more wins in the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher currently ranks 5th in North America with over $5.8 million in earnings in 2024 and a WPS% of 50% over 307 starts. He had last year's heavy favorite, Forte, who was scratched hours before the race. Fierceness has traveled a very similar path to Forte, by dominating in the Florida Derby (G1). In order to surpass last year's colt, Fierceness will have to accomplish something no other horse has been able to do in the Kentucky Derby: Win from the 17th post.
  18. Phillip D'Amato (Stronghold 20-1): The last of the rookie Kentucky Derby trainers, D'Amato has a strong contender with Stronghold, who has yet to finish outside the top 2 in his six career runs, including two straight wins in the 2024 Sunland Park Derby (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). D'Amato has 19 Grade 1 triumphs, including his biggest win-to-date with Obviously in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
  19. Bill Mott (Resilience 20-1): Mott is the second trainer in the Derby to have a Derby win coming through the disqualification route, when Country House, at odds of 65-1, was promoted to first place after Maximum Security had been found guilty of interference on the track. That would be the Hall of Famer's only win at the Derby in 12 tries. Resilience entered the field with a win at the 2024 Wood Memorial (G2).
  20. Danny Gargan (Society Man 50-1): Society Man is Gargan's second entry for Saturday, having garnered enough points with a second-place finish at the Wood Memorial.

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