2024 Kentucky Derby Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 5/3/2024

The highlight of the horse race calendar is here, and all eyes will be on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby race. There are 20 horses competing in this year’s main event, and there is no shortage of betting opportunities for the big race.

There are four horses that I’ve had my eyes on, as they are clearly mispriced compared to the rest of the field. Here are your best bets for the Kentucky Derby with a recommendation of how to spread a $100 wager on the race.

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Fierceness (5-2)

Fierceness is the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, and this 5-2 price still leaves plenty of money to be made. Fierceness is a strong, reliable horse, with an experienced jockey on his back. John Velazquez already has 3 Kentucky Derbies to his name, and he will look to join elite company as the third jockey to win four different Kentucky Derbies. Velazquez and Fierceness have been in each other's company since birth, and he was always going to be the man to saddle up for the biggest race of the 3-year-old horse's career. Fresh off his Florida Derby victory, Fierceness has proven himself capable of rising to the occasion on the biggest stages. The 1.25-mile race will give him plenty of chances to make up lost ground, as Fierceness’s long strides and powerful running makes Velazquez a perfect fit. His 13-and-a-half-length victory at the Florida Derby was the biggest win on record, and the favorite is only coming in with this juicy price tag thanks to his undesirable Post 17 Position.

Percent to win: 70%

Catching Freedom (8-1)

Catching Freedom was unable to win any of the major prep races for this event. However, fresh off his 2023 Louisiana Derby victory, he still has the power needed to win this lengthy race. His 95 HRN rating will have bettors confident he can pull off the upset. Jockey Flavien Prat has been reliable at the Kentucky Derby, as he is able to keep his horses on pace and not run out of stamina down the stretch. He has shown in five of his six previous derbies, and already has a win under his belt after cashing a +6500 ticket in 2019. Catching Freedom has risen to the occasion multiple times before. And while he hasn’t eclipsed the 100 speed rating, he hasn’t needed to. When he is faced with stiff competition, he is able to go stride-for-stride, and it would not be surprising to see him pull off the upset at the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Percent to win: 15%

Track Phantom (20-1)

Track Phantom has gone under the radar at the upcoming Kentucky Derby, but he is more than capable of cashing these 20-1 odds. There is no doubting Track Phantom’s straight-line speed, but he is expected to fade down the stretch of the upcoming Derby. He has had stamina problems in the past, but this is the type of horse you want to back when looking for a Kentucky Derby longshot. There is no better fit than Florent Geroux to saddle up at this event, as the seasoned jockey is capable of controlling his speed and ensuring he has gas left down the home stretch. Geroux has already placed at two previous derbies, both of which were with horses given little to no chance of securing a positive result. This will be the longest run of Track Phantom’s professional career, and he has the straight-line speed to keep up with the race’s favorites. Steve Asmussen is an extremely experienced trainer who will do whatever it takes to win. With the PETA allegations in the rearview mirror, Asmussen is confident Track Phantom has what it takes to pull off the big upset as long as he can control his speed in the early portion of the race.

Percent to win: 10%

Stronghold (20-1)

Stronghold will be right beside favorite Fierceness in gate 18 and will know the pace it takes to win from the opening gun. First-time Kentucky Derby jockey Antonio Fresu will have his work cut out for him, but Stronghold is another extremely live underdog. The top speeds for Stronghold aren’t the fastest, with a 92 and 93 rating in his last two events, but he has the stamina to make this interesting down the stretch. Stronghold has been able to place in his last six races, consistently finishing with a 90+ speed. As long as the early deficit doesn’t grow too large, Stronghold has the capabilities to storm back for a comeback win at the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Stronghold will almost certainly finish among the Kentucky Derby contenders and is the perfect horse to navigate this long race. His stamina is like few other horses at the race, and trainer Phil D’Amato has shown he is eager to make a name for himself in the horse racing world. He’s won several other smaller races across his 11-year career, with Stronghold being the first horse under at the Kentucky Derby.

Percent to win: 5%

Kentucky Derby Recommended $100 Wager:

$50 Fierceness to Win

$25 Catching Freedom to Place

$25 Track Phantom to Show

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