2024 Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario Handicapping and Analysis

by Joey House - 4/30/2024

One of the most critical aspects of successful horse handicapping is understanding the concept of pace. The pace of a race refers to how fast the horses are running in the early stages of a race. It's a crucial factor that can make or break a bettor's chances of winning. Knowing what pace is and how it affects the outcome of a race is essential for making informed betting decisions. The adage "Pace makes the race" is a tried and true principle that handicappers should know if they want to increase their chances of success.

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There are four main styles of running patterns of horses for handicappers to deal with. A front-runner, or pacesetter, takes the lead early and stays at the front of the pack. They attempt to use their speed to tire their competitors out and hold on for the win. Secretariat and American Pharoah were dominant front-runners. Stalkers are horses that position themselves just behind the pacesetters to conserve their energy. They assess the pace of the race and attempt to make their move to take the lead when the time is right. California Chrome and Curlin used the stalking style with great success. Closers are horses that use a different tactic to conserve their energy. They fall to the back of the pack, saving ground by getting close to the rail and using a strong kick to move past tiring and fading horses in the final stretch. Zenyatta and Tiznow were renowned closers. The final running style is that of a mid-pack runner. As the name would imply, they assume a position between the stalkers and closers, adjusting their pace on how the race unfolds. Their versatility allows them to adapt to a wide range of scenarios. Rachel Alexandra and Ghostzapper used this tactic to perfection.

The strategy of pace in the Kentucky Derby has changed due to the new selection process used to determine the field of horses for the "Run for the Roses" in 2013. Before that, entries were secured through stakes earnings accumulated from both sprint and distance races. That allowed more sprinters into the field since horses did not have to run two-turn races to qualify. Now, every major points prep race is at least one mile long, which makes it challenging for a sprinter to crack the field.

Now that we know the different styles of running, we can attempt to construct a map of how the race may run out and look for areas to exploit.

The early favorite, Fierceness, is the prototypical pacesetter and is expected to do so again on Saturday. While the last two Kentucky Derbies have had brisk beginnings (the opening quarter-mile of:21.78 in 2022 was the fastest in Kentucky Derby history, allowing 80-1 long shot Rich Strike to rally from 18th place), this year's speed seems to be lacking. If Fierceness is able to dictate his own pace, he should be able to become the first winner from the 17th post-position.

There are a few other pacesetters who have performed their best on the lead and could accompany Fiereceness to the front of the pack. Dornoch has set the pace in all three of his victories, including the Remsen (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2). Track Phantom is a speed merchant who will likely battle or take the lead early before living the adage "Speed kills". TO Password, one of the Japanese entries, is a wild card but figures to be an early front-runner as well.

Stronghold is perhaps the most dangerous stalker in the field. He employed a stalking strategy in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), closing from 2 1/2 lengths back to win. Just a Touch is another potential threat from the stalking position, as he showed in the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) when he gave Sierra Leone all he could handle before finally falling in defeat. Just Steel never strayed more than two lengths from the pace in his second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

Midpack runners, the last two races notwithstanding, have enjoyed a great deal of success in the Derby. Catching Freedom's best chance of victory is to hover in the middle, make a move on the far turn, and then hold on late. His jockey, the talented Flavian Prat, will most likely look to save ground early and never be too far off the front.

If a speed duel does surprisingly develop early on in the race, there are a bevy of talented closers in this year's "Run for the Roses" who will benefit greatly and have something to say about the winner. Honor Marie and Catching Freedom are both late closers who would relish the chance to pick off fading speed horses. But the class of this group is most definitely Sierra Leone, who has used powerful finishes to propel him to three victories already.

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