2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shots: Advice and Tips for Finding Value

by Mike Allen - 5/2/2024

The Kentucky Derby is the oldest running sporting event in the United States. If you haven’t caught one of the headlines yet, the first Derby was way back in the year 1875. That makes this year’s running number 150!

Held at Churchill Downs in the charming city of Louisville, the Kentucky Derby is something we can all get together for. Who doesn’t have a couple of minutes on the first Saturday evening in May?

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The race is set to begin around 6:40 Eastern Time, so don’t cut things too close or you might miss it. Last year’s winner, Mage, crossed the finish line on the home stretch at 2:01.57.

We have only seen a sub-2-minute time twice in 149 previous Kentucky Derbies. In 2001, Monarchos fell short of the all-time record but still registered a 1:59.97. The record holder is a horse you have likely heard of. Secretariat clocked a 1:59.40 in 1973.

Secretariat's quarter-mile splits got faster with each turn. He was on one that day. However, he was not at all a longshot to win and paid out at only 3-2. That is a lot better than his odds at The Preakness or Belmont Stakes, but still not the excitement and riches one would come to expect when betting on and winning a horse race as prestigious as the Kentucky Derby.

If you're reading this article, you are in search of a long shot winner with betting odds of maybe 20-1 or better. So, I will spare you the spiel on which of the few betting favorites we think have the best probability to win.

Historical Long Shot Kentucky Derby Winners

Think about how long this race has been running, how much money is involved from the owners to the venue to television rights, and so on. Solely being selected to run in the Kentucky Derby is an incredible honor and signifies a horse and its team are elite.

With a field of 20 horses, this means one can get a massive payout on one of the fastest horses in the world to do what they do best.

Today, let's focus on which Kentucky Derby horses who are long shots we think have the best chance to win. Before we do that, though, let us remind you just two years ago, Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby with 85-1 odds! Three years prior to that, in 2019, Country House took first place at 65-1.

Here is a list of the top 10 long shot winners of the Kentucky Derby.

1. Donerail (1913): 91-1

2. Rich Strike (2022): 80-1

3. Country House (2019): 65-1

4. Mine That Bird (2009): 50-1

5. Giacomo (2005): 50-1

6. Gallahadion (1940): 35-1

7. Apollo (1882): 32-1

8. Charismatic (1999): 31-1

9. Proud Clarion (1967): 30-1

10. Exterminator (1918): 29-1

As you can see, the gap has closed quickly over the past couple of decades, with four long shot winners with betting odds of at least 20-1.

2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Picks

Mystik Dan: 20-1

Mystik Dan is a horse that has the potential to run better at Churchill Downs on Saturday than any other if the rains come. The wet track favors the fast, and Mystik Dan is a burner.

When you have betting odds of 20-1, you can't sit here and think of consistency or moderately high ceilings. If we were betting on him to finish inside the top 5 or 10, then sure, that is when we let logic take over.

At 20-1, we are betting on something strange happening. It isn't supposed to rain on Saturday. We only have maybe a 20% chance all day. However, it's scheduled to pour on Friday. Of course, they cover the track, but these methods are not perfect.

If we can get heavy rain early in the weekend and potentially some showers closer to the starting time, the odds of Mystik Dan winning will be quite valuable at 20-1.

Honor Marie: 20-1

Just like the previously mentioned Mystic Dan needs the rain as a speed horse, Honor Marie would rather have the track as dry as possible.

This horse seems to be everyone's darling this week. And instead of being a maverick, I will listen to the masses. If you couldn't tell, I am not a horse racing expert who follows the sport religiously year-round.

I did, however, do a lot of homework, and this horse just kept popping up on the radar. I had to throw him in there as one of our long shots with a chance to win the Kentucky Derby.

Endlessly: 30-1

This horse has never raced on dirt before, and it appears that his owner took this opportunity to run the Kentucky Derby because it is the most prestigious horse race in history.

Endlessly does, however, have five wins in six starts as a pro, if you will. Most pundits and horse racing experts have him listed as one of the most talented of the 20 in the field.

Raw talent, an 83% winning percentage with a good amount of competition experience, and betting odds of 30-1, are good enough for me to include Endessly in our longshots to win the Kentucky Derby.

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