2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping: What you Should Know Before Betting Run for the Roses

by Joey House - 5/1/2024

In most team sports, the penultimate competition comes after a long and grueling season. In individual sports such as golf and racing, the most prestigious event can occur any time throughout the season. The PGA Tour season spans from January to early September and has its Majors sprinkled throughout that time frame. However, the highlight of the year is always The Masters, the only Major to be held on the same weekend (2nd in April) and location (Augusta, Georgia) every year. Nascar's season runs from February to November, but starts every year with the Daytona 500, commonly called "The Great American Race" or "Super Bowl of Stock Car racing".

Horse racing is a little different, because there is no "season" per se. And throughout the country, there is racing every single day on different tracks. One of the highlights of the sport, however, is the pursuit of the "Triple Crown". The Kentucky Derby, the first jewel in the Triple Crown, is thought by many to be the most prestigious of the trio of races and is by far the most publicized event in racing. While the other legs of the Triple Crown are important, no race is analyzed as much as the "Run for the Roses."

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Wagering Options

The first decision that you must make in your Kentucky Derby handicapping strategy is your starting bankroll and how aggressive you want to be. The average horse race sees the favorite win approximately 35% of the time, with the second favorite visiting the winners' circle between 18-21%. So, just betting Win/Place/Show (W/P/S) isn't likely to give you a great return on your money but should provide a little more consistency in your winning percentage. While the Derby isn't much different in winning percentages of the favorites (40 wins in 116 races since 1908), what is different is the odds involved. For example, last year's post-time favorite, Angel of Empire, went off at 4-1. You won't often see a 4-1 favorite in a normal race. Therefore, betting simple W/P/S in the Kentucky Derby can be more profitable than most races.

However, because of the enhanced odds, the exotic wagering becomes so much more attractive. In 2022, when the 80-1 uber-long shot Rich Strike finished first and post-time favorite Epicenter finished second at 4-1, the exotic payouts were staggering. A $2 exacta wager paid $4,101.20. The $1 trifecta paid $14,870.70, and a $1 superfecta brought back $321,500.21.

Wagering Strategy

I was fortunate enough to check off a bucket list item when I attended the 2003 Kentucky Derby. As a novice handicapper, I used a system where I would key one horse and mix in a few others. As long as my key horse finished in the money, and two other horses out of my pool finished ITM as well, I have a winning ticket. I have to invest $36 per race, with each wager being $1. Being the novice I was, I used the favorite Empire Maker as my key horse but was lucky enough to include Funny Cide at 12-1 and Peace Rules at 6-1. My small $36 investment returned $332.40. While I've had wins much bigger than that over the past 21 years, there's something special about not only attending your first "Run for the Roses" but hitting a winning exotic wager while you're at the track.

I shared that story, not only because it brings a smile to my face every time I think about it, but also to illustrate that you do not necessarily need huge long shots for a profitable payday. I incorporated the two favorite horses with a mild long shot and hit paydirt.

Challenges handicapping the Derby

Perhaps the most challenging aspects that handicappers run across when breaking down the Derby are the unknowns. The "Run for the Roses" is at least a 1/16 of a mile longer than any of the contestants' previous races. This emphasizes pedigree handicapping and gives you some insight into a horse's potential over longer distances and their abilities to handle different types of race conditions.

Another aspect that makes the Kentucky Derby vastly different than other races is the size of the field, as the 3-year-old thoroughbreds will have never raced in a field that had up to 19 other contestants. This factor places a premium on the skill level of the jockey. Some riders are conservative and perhaps a bit timid. Others are aggressive, fearless, and don't mind a congested route.

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 6:10 PM
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