Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024 Kentucky Derby Futures Odds and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 4/5/2024

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

The journey to the historic 150th Kentucky Derby began with a robust prep season that started in the fall of last year. One of the interesting ways to wager on the "Run for the Roses" is by betting on the futures market. The main draw of these wagers is the attractive odds on the horses. There are six different "pools" or windows to bet on the Derby futures, starting last Halloween to the final one that started on Thursday and runs through Saturday.

Pool 1: October 31st to November 2nd, 2023

The opening pool for the 2024 Kentucky Derby saw the smallest amount of wagers placed, with a total handle of $132,033. The opening favorite was the "All Other Colts/Geldings 2021 Foal Crop", which opened as the morning line favorite of 3-5 and closed at 4-5. The second favorite was Locked, sired by Gun Runner out of the Malibu Moon mare Luna Rosa. Propelled by a 1st-place finish in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), Locked closed at 14-1. Dornoch opened at 60-1 and closed at 19-1. Fierceness announced his arrival to the world, opening at 99-1 and closing at 29-1.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Pool 2: November 23rd to November 26th, 2023

The second pool saw a slight increase in action, with the pool's handle, totaling $163,037. Once again it was the "All Other Colts" group that closed as the favorite at 6-5 odds. Fierceness moved into the second favorite slot at 8-1 on the heels of winning the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), defeating Muth and Locked. The former favorite dropped to 3rd but stayed at the odds of 14-1.

Pool 3: January 19th to January 21st, 2024

The third pool started to see a major uptick in wagering action, as the total handle more than doubled to $334,472. For the third consecutive pool, "All Other 3-Year-Olds" were the favorites, but at more favorable 2-1 closing odds. Fierceness remained the only horse under double-digit odds at 8-1. Sierra Leone made his first appearance at the top of the leaderboard, coming in 13-1 and fourth place. Dornoch saw his price slightly drop, opening that pool at 20-1 and closing at 15-1. One of the biggest movers in this pool was Track Phantom, who opened at 60-1 and closed at 18-1 due to his back-to-back victories in the 2023 Gun Runner (LS) and 2024 Lecomte (G3).

Pool 4: February 16th to February 18th, 2024

The action in the post-Valentine's Day pool slightly increased to a total of $408,422. The perennial favorite "All Other 3-Year-Olds" saw its lead dramatically decrease, as it closed at 5.69-1. Sierra Leone saw his stock rise after winning the 2024 Risen Star (G2) and closed in second place at 6.14-1. Dornoch (9.38-1), Timberlake (15.4-1), and Fierceness (16.2-1) rounded out the top 5.

Pool 5: March 15th to March 17th, 2024

The handle or final odds for the second-to-last Future's Pool have yet to be calculated. However, there was a major shake-up in the odds leaderboard, as Sierra Leone opened the fifth pool as the morning line favorite at 5-1. One of the contributing factors to this move was the decision of Locked's trainer, Todd Pletcher, to end the 3-year-old's Derby dream due to a knee ligament issue. Timberlake got a nice bump to 8-1 after collecting a first-place finish in the 2024 Rebel Stakes (G2). Dornoch and Fierceness both opened at 12-1 and "All Other 3-Year Olds" dropped to the 5th-highest favorite at 15-1.

The final pool is open this weekend and promises to see quite a bit of change in the leaderboard. The opening lines have installed Fierceness, fresh off his victory in the 2024 Florida Derby (G1) as the overwhelming favorite at 4-5. Sierra Leone hasn't raced since the Risen Star but is still a solid second favorite at 10-1. One of the international horses, Forever Young, won the 2024 UAE Derby (G2) last weekend and comes in with the third-best odds at 12-1. Dornoch remains in the top 5 at 15-1 and Catching Freedom moves into fifth place at 17-1.

This is the final weekend for the major prep races and what a weekend it is. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby has an eight-horse field, with two of those entries trained by the Kentucky-suspended trainer Bob Baffert. The Blue Grass (G1) also is running this Saturday and will give Dornoch his final tune-up before the "Run for the Roses". Finally, the Wood Memorial (G2) goes off at Aqueduct with a 13-horse field.

When the dust settles from this weekend's action, we'll have a much clearer picture of the probable Kentucky Derby lineup. Barring some catastrophic training injury, Fierceness should be the early morning-line favorite for the 150th edition of "The Most Exciting 2 minutes in Sports". However, as we learned last year with the loss of heavy favorite Forte and other top-choice Practical Magic, catastrophic injuries are very possible, and thus, a close eye must be kept on the field.

CURRENT ODDS (courtesy of bet365)

Fierceness +450

Sierra Leone +600

Forever Young +800

Dornoch +900

Catching Freedom 10-1

Timberlake 16-1

Conquest Warrior 20-1

Deterministic 20-1

T O Password 20-1

Track Phantom 20-1

Domestic Product 25-1

Encino 25-1

Just Steel 25-1

Mystik Dan 25-1

Stronghold 25-1

Tuscan Gold 25-1

Honor Marie 33-1

Just A Touch 33-1

No More Time 33-1

Pandagate 33-1

Snead 33-1

Tuscan Sky 33-1

Uncle Heavy 33-1

Epic Ride 40-1

Hades 40-1

Common Defense 50-1

Speak Easy 50-1

The Wine Steward 50-1

Victory Avenue 50-1

West Saratoga 50-1

Informed Patriot 100-1

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers