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2025 Kentucky Derby Futures Odds and Expert Analysis

by Jeremy Block - 4/4/2025

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

So, you’re already eyeing the Kentucky Derby months in advance? Nice move. Betting on the Derby early means you can snag some solid odds on horses before the hype gets real. And if you pick right, you might be grinning while everyone else is scrambling to catch up.

Of course, picking the winner isn’t as simple as throwing a dart at a board. There’s a lot to consider -- form, training, track conditions, and a bit of luck. But if you know where to look, you can get ahead of the game and pick a contender that’s anxious to make a run for the roses.

Let’s take a look at some of my top Kentucky Derby picks and who looks most likely to cross the finish line first.

Heading into the Kentucky Derby, we’ve got some key races to watch, and they could shake up the field. This Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, despite having just five entrants, is crucial. The top finishers will only get 75 points instead of the usual 100, which could be a game-changer for Kentucky Derby favorites: Journalism and Citizen Bull. Adding to that, with trainer Bob Baffert back in the mix, this race is a big one to track. Then we’ve got the Bluegrass Stakes, with a few horses on the bounce-back after recent losses. It’s all adding up to a tight race for those final Derby spots.

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River Thames

Look, this may be a shock -- River Thames isn’t talked about much. However, this horse is trained by none other than Todd Pletcher and remains unbeaten after picking up two huge wins in his first outings. Add in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and there’s plenty of reason to believe there’s more to come with the Kentucky Derby right around the corner. 

Keep in mind, Thames also ran on a three-week turnaround last race, which should only make him sharper next time out. Don’t be surprised if you see this name climbing the rankings as we inch closer to the big race.

Citizen Bull

Alright, this might not be a big shocker, but I've got Citizen Bull second on my list. Trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, Citizen Bull has been absolutely solid, with four wins in five starts -- pretty impressive, right? 

His victories include a dominant performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he led wire-to-wire, clocking 1:43.07 for 1 1/16 miles and posting a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Makes you rethink putting your money anywhere else, huh? With a resume like that in such a short time, it's no surprise he's a top contender for the Kentucky Derby.

Tappan Street

Sliding into my third spot, I’ve got Tappan Street. Now, before you jump out of your seat, hear me out. This three-year-old colt, trained by Brad Cox, has been turning heads. After a strong second-place finish at the Holy Bull Stakes in February, earning 10 Derby qualifying points, Tappan Street is sitting pretty with a solid 2-1 record in his last three starts. 

With Cox's proven expertise and Tappan Street's upward trajectory, don't be surprised if this sleeper pick makes a serious run for the roses.

Rodriguez

Despite Rodriguez’s odds not looking great as a guaranteed lock, I still like the Bob Baffert-trained horse to make a serious run this May and shock the horse racing world. Don’t forget, Rodriguez is the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. And since stepping onto the pro circuit, he’s shown impressive stamina. That’s backed up by a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, proving he’s got the raw speed to compete. 

Yes, he fell short to Citizen Bull in his last race, but I fully expect Baffert’s camp to have Rodriguez locked in and ready after learning the hard way against top-tier competition.

Journalism

Journalism has been the talk of the town alongside Citizen Bull heading into this big race, and I’m right there with the majority -- Journalism is a serious contender to walk away with the crown. Adding to that, this horse just picked up a victory at the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, despite a setback due to an illness that interfered with his training schedule. That’s history now. 

Being highly-favored, and back on track and in training, the odds are strong that Journalism will be right up there when it matters most. Even though speed and stamina have been concerns, I still expect this experienced horse to be ready for the big race and battle until the last stride.

Patch Adams

All right, we’ve talked about the three horses I like the most -- now let’s get into a potential goldmine with my darkhorse for this year’s Kentucky Derby. I’m all in on Patch Adams somewhere down the line to shock bettors this year. Like it or not, Patch Adams has clocked in with some speed, grabbing a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. 

And sure, finishing fourth in the Southwest Stakes doesn’t sound too reassuring, but there’s more to the story. Brad Cox is training this horse. And if there’s anyone who knows how to get a horse primed at the right time, it’s him. I fully expect Patch Adams to turn it up a notch and solidify himself as a real Derby contender. 

If he does, it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard – so, get ahead of the curve. This long shot could surprise some of the heavily favored horses when it matters most.

Odds to win:

River Thames (+2500)

Citizen Bull (+800)

Tappan Street (+1200)

Rodriguez (+3400)

Journalism (+525)

Patch Adams (+3500)

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