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Kentucky Derby Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 5/2/2024

Kentucky Derby betting tips

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest Horse Racing event of the year, and there are countless betting trends that have emerged in recent years. By carefully examining these trends, you can better prepare yourself for the big event before placing any wagers. Trends don’t always tell the story of how the race will play out, but being aware of what has happened in the past can help you win your bets in the present.

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Prep Races Success is a Crucial Factor:

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest race of the year, but it is not the first. Prior to the Derby, there have been six major prep races over the last five weeks. Over the last 40 years, 28 of the Kentucky Derby winners have won a prep race, making the six previous winners important horses to keep your eyes on at the Kentucky Derby. Five of the six prep race winners will be competing in the Kentucky Derby, with the two favorites (Fierceness +150 and Sierra Leone +200) having both won their respective prep races last month. A 70% success rate for a betting trend is an immaculate return, as the prep races have been a fantastic way to get a solid look at the upcoming crop of 3-year old horses before the big race. Stronghold, Resilience, and Encino are the other three prep race winners, all coming in with +1900 odds to win the Kentucky Derby. If this trend is to continue into 2024, the winner will probably be one of the two heavy favorites, but the other prep race winners cannot be ignored.

Favorites have been Consistent

The underdog stories at the Kentucky Derby can steal the headlines, but it’s important to remember just how profitable the favorite has been in recent years. The outright favorite won the Kentucky Derby 6 years in a row between 2013 and 2019, clinching a profit over the last 12 years for the favorites. Unlike other sports, the betting favorite can still offer a +100 to +300 payout in horse racing. A 50% hit rate for the outright favorite is immaculate. Missing out on a 50-1 Mine That Bird win in 2009, or a 65-1 Country Horse win in 2019, can make the favorites feel like a less than profitable wager. But the reality is there have been hundreds of Kentucky Derby longshots who were unable to win the race in that time frame. Even if you correctly sniped those two winners by betting on every horse at 20-1 or longer, you would still be in the red over the last decade. The favorites have been profitable and can still be a sharp wager when the circumstances are ideal.

Line Volatility:

The nature of the Kentucky Derby results in heavy line movement as race day approaches. In other sports, the oddsmakers will elect whether or not to shift the lines based on their confidence in the current line, combined with the money splits on each side. However, the Kentucky Derby bookmakers have no say in the line. Horse racing is a parimutuel sport, meaning the odds are solely calculated based on the percentage of total money bet on each horse. If the odds are shifting up or down, it is because more or less money is coming in on that specific horse. In recent years, late line movement hasn’t necessarily been a good indicator of who may end up winning. As the race draws closer, the mass money coming in from the public starts to shift the odds available. It’s critical to remember that if lines are dropping prior to the race, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s now time to pile in money at the worsening price.

Trainers Cannot be Ignored:

On race day, all eyes will be on the horses and their jockeys. While the jockey is crucial to a horse’s success, the Kentucky Derby trainers cannot be forgotten. Legendary Bob Baffert is still banned from his drug scandal in 2021, but his impact is still vital to keep an eye on. Baffert was forced to give away his horses, and the field for the new top trainer is wide open. The new top tier trainer is no other than Bob Cox. Cox already has a Triple Crown win to his name, after winning in 2021 thanks to disqualification in the Kentucky Derby. Cox has three horses racing at the event, with Catching Freedom coming in as the frontrunner. However, the impact of a legendary trainer like him must be taken into account, and a 10-1 horse like Just A Touch has inherent value.

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