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Journalism Odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/25/2025

Journalism Kentucky Derby

From Malibu's sun-soaked beaches to Silicon Valley's innovative spirit to Hollywood's glamour, California is a land of diversity and dynamism. It produces world-class wine, blockbuster films, and tenacious horses that charge onto the Kentucky Derby stage with unrivaled speed and grit, ready to compete at Churchill Downs. Since 2000, when Fusaichi Pegasus won the "Run for the Roses," seven other California-trained horses won the first leg of the Triple Crown. Journalism aims to be the next Kentucky Derby winner from "The Golden State."

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Breeding: Regarding grading, Journalism is good but not great, earning a B+ from Equineline. He is sired from Curlin out of the Uncle Mo-bred mare Mopotism. Curlin had a distinguished career as a 3 and 4-year-old, finishing 3rd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, winning the Preakness two weeks later, and placing 2nd in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont. He then won seven of the next nine races he entered, including the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and the 2008 Dubai World Cup (G1). Over 50% of the horses foaled by Curlin have gone on to be winning thoroughbreds, with career earnings of $161,039,054. Journalism broodmare's sire, Uncle Mo, was a solid performer, winning the first four races in his career before finishing third in the 2011 Wood Memorial. However, he didn't run in the Derby that year as he was scratched on race day due to a gastrointestinal infection. Uncle Mo's progeny have won $39,429,332. Journalism has six other siblings, all of who have raced.

Trainer: Journalism's trainer is Michael W. McCarthy, currently ranked 19th among North American trainers with a 19% win rate, 45% in-the-money (ITM) rate, and $1.9 million in earnings. This will be the second Kentucky Derby the 54-year-old trainer from Youngstown, Ohio, has had a runner after 2024's Endlessly came in 9th. However, he does have a Triple Crown win under his belt, as his 11-1 long-shot Rombauer won the 2021 Preakness.

Jockey: 36-year-old Italian Umberto Rispoli has been on the mount for all of Journalism's stake wins. This will be Rispoli's third consecutive crack at the Run for the Roses, riding Brooklyn Strong to 14th in 2021 and then aboard McCarthy's 9th-placed Endlessly. He has won 21% of his 188 starts this year, with earnings above $2.8 million. Over his career, he's visited the winner's circle in 18% of his races for over $46.2 million.

Prior experience: Journalism debuted on October 27th, finishing third in a 6-furlong Maiden Special Weight race at Santa Anita Park. He ended his one-race losing streak 20 days later in a one-mile MSW at Delmar Race Track. He won the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December, the 2025 San Felipe (G2) in March of this year, and entered the Grade 1 2025 Santa Anita Derby, riding the wave of three consecutive victories. In a small 5-horse field that included a couple of probable Kentucky Derby opponents, Journalism stalked the leader along the rail, bumped at the seven-sixteenths pole, then moved into the clear and impressively ran down Baeza.

Odds, Analysis, and Predictions: Journalism is an early but not prohibitive favorite heading into the week of the Derby. He checks off several of the boxes desired of Derby contenders: undefeated as a 3-year-old, defeating probable Derby contenders already, and making his bones on the challenging West Coast racing circuit. His 102 Beyer Speed Rating in his triumph in the Santa Anita Derby is the highest among all the probable Kentucky Derby runners. Not only does he possess pure speed, but he also has tactical speed and the ability to change gears quickly, which is critical in a race with such a large field like the Derby. The biggest question about Journalism is whether he used up all of his reserves in the San Felipe and Santa Anita. Both races were against stiff competition that he will likely face on May 3rd. This horse has a lot to like but not enough to warrant his status as the early favorite. I'll put him in some of my exotics, but I won't be reading the story that Journalism won the first leg of the 2025 Triple Crown.

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