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2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/1/2023

Jacksonville Jaguars predictions Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville is one of the most overvalued and overhyped teams in the NFL heading into the 2023 season.

At Caesars Sportsbook, the Jaguars currently have the fifth-highest Las Vegas season win total (10.0) in the AFC. I have also seen them in the Top 10 of nearly every preseason power ranking that I’ve read, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is being called a “sleeper MVP pick”.

Are you kidding me?

Just say it out loud: “Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the AFC and a Super Bowl contender.”

Does that sound even remotely true? Or is more likely that the Jaguars are just like fellow Sunshine State legend Ron DeSantis: overrated and destined to fail.

Jacksonville is getting a lot of mileage out of finishing one game over .500 last year and scoring one of the biggest fluke playoff wins I’ve ever seen. This squad was 4-8 heading into Week 14 and benefitted from playing in the worst division in football.

Ask yourself this: if the Jaguars had lost their Week 18 game against Tennessee – a game the Jags were down 13-7 at halftime, at home, to Joshua Dobbs – and missed the playoffs, how excited would everyone be about this squad heading into 2023?

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2023 OFFENSE

I know I’m in the minority here, but I am still not completely buying Lawrence.

He’s not there yet. I know that his overall numbers were solid last season – 66.3 percent completions, 4,113 yards, with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. I still question Lawrence’s decision making, and I have a hard time jumping on the bandwagon of a guy that threw four interceptions in the first half of a playoff game.

Lawrence has a nice compliment of skill position players. Christian Kirk broke out last year and somewhat justified his free agent contract. Zay Jones caught 82 balls, and Evan Engram had his best season as a pro.

Calvin Ridley is a major x-factor for this receiving corps.

He developed into a Pro Bowler in Atlanta. But mental health issues and poor decision-making related to gambling have kept him out of the league for two years. I’m expecting him to have plenty of rust. If he shakes it off and plays like he did in 2020, then the Jaguars passing attack can go throw-for-throw with anyone in the league.

Travis Etienne rebounded from a rookie year lost to injury with 1,100 rushing yards, and he is just scratching the surface of his potential. The Jaguars have a dearth of proven options behind him.

Cam Robinson’s six-game PED suspension means the Jaguars will open the year with two new starting tackles (including rookie Anton Harrison). Brandon Scherff needs to regain his Pro Bowl form, and Robinson needs to come back strong, or this line could become a liability in a hurry.

Doug Pederson has kind of a checkered career when it comes to developing quarterbacks. In nine years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, he’s guided four Top 10 scoring units. He has also had five teams finish No. 22 or lower in total yards. This isn’t some offensive guru we’re dealing with.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2023 DEFENSE

Besides Lawrence, one of the reasons for the preseason hype around the Jaguars is their young, up-and-coming defense.

Color me skeptical.

Jacksonville was No. 24 in the NFL in total defense last year. They benefitted from the league’s eighth-best defensive yards per point and were also No. 2 in teams of fewest starts lost to injury.

This unit allowed 28 points to Washington, 34 points to Indianapolis and 40 points to Detroit. The Jaguars also got hit for 57 points in two playoff games and were No. 29 in the league in third-down defense. Those aren’t the fingerprints of a dominating D.

And the Jaguars didn’t make any upgrades in the offseason. They didn’t sign a single impact free agent and didn’t draft a defensive player until the fourth round.

There are some decent individual talents on this side of the ball. Davon Hamilton, Josh Allen, Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco are all difference makers. Allen is the only one to ever make the Pro Bowl, though, and he hasn’t done that since 2019.

Foyesade Oluokun has led the NFL in tackles for two straight seasons. The former Atlanta sixth-round draft pick might be the most underrated player in the league.

The rest of the guys? Inexperienced. The average age of the defenders on Jacksonville’s projected 53-man roster makes this one of the youngest units in football. And they will head into training camp with a 90-man roster that features just four defenders with more than five years of NFL service time.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2023 SCHEDULE

One of the league’s easiest schedules is the best thing Jacksonville has going for it. The AFC South is a joke, and the Jaguars crossover with a mediocre NFC South. They also only play one true road game in their first six weeks and have a favorable Week 9 bye.

Jacksonville also has to play in London in back-to-back weeks. No team has ever done that. They don’t even get a bye week when they return from that two-week trek, facing Indianapolis in a clear letdown spot. To make matters worse, they have a short-week trip to New Orleans for a Thursday night game after that tilt with Indy.

That trip to the Superdome kicks off an eight-game stretch where I don’t have the Jaguars winning more than twice.

Week 1: 9/10 at Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM, FOX

Week 2: 9/17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1 PM, CBS

Week 3: 9/24 vs. Houston Texans, 1 PM, FOX

Week 4: 10/1 vs. Atlanta Falcons (London), 9:30 AM, ESPN+

Week 5: 10/8 at Buffalo Bills (London), 9:30 AM, NFL Network

Week 6: 10/15 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 PM, CBS

Week 7: 10/19 at New Orleans Saints (Thursday) , 8:15 PM, Amazon

Week 8: 10/29 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 PM. CBS

Week 9: Bye Week

Week 10: 11/12 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 PM, FOX

Week 11: 11/19 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 PM, CBS

Week 12: 11/26 at Houston Texans, 1 PM, CBS

Week 13: 12/4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 14: 12/10 at Cleveland Browns, 1 PM, CBS

Week 15: 12/17 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 PM, NBC

Week 16: 12/24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4 PM, CBS

Week 17: 12/31 vs. Carolina Panthers, 1 PM, CBS

Week 18: TBD at Tennessee Titans, TBD, TBD

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

From 2018-2021, the Jaguars went 15-50. This team has lost double-digit games in 10 of the last 12 years. And they have followed up their previous three playoff appearances this century (2005, 2007 and 2017) by going 8-8, 5-11 and 5-11, respectively.

The Jaguars haven’t had back-to-back winning years since 2004-05.

I bring it up all the time: roughly half of the teams that make the NFL Playoffs in any given season do not return the following year. That’s been a verifiable statistical trend over the past quarter century of professional football.

I think the Jaguars are a prime candidate to miss the postseason this year after dancing last year.

Pederson is the best coach Jacksonville has had since Jack Del Rio. He isn’t Bill Walsh, though. And Trevor Lawrence sure as hell isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana.

There is still an overwhelming amount of youth and inexperience on both sides of the ball for this team. These guys might also be a little cocky after reading all the glowing projections for this squad heading into training camp.

I’m selling.

Jacksonville is a lot closer to an eight-win team than they are a 10- or 11-win squad. The margin for error in the NFL is slim. The difference between 8-9 and 11-6 can just be a half-dozen plays.

I don’t think Jacksonville is going to come close to beating their inflated expectations. Take them to go ‘under’ 10.0 or 9.5 wins.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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