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2024-25 Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/31/2024

Iowa State Cyclones basketball predictions Keshon Gilbert

Iowa State basketball is in the midst of one of the greatest stretches in program history. They are coming off a 24-win regular season and a 13-5 Big 12 record. They struggled a bit early on when they lost to Virginia Tech and #12 Texas A&M in back-to-back games, but then they hit their stride and finished their nonconference schedule with an 11-2 record. They opened up Big 12 play with a loss to #11 Oklahoma on the road, but they quickly rebounded and took down #2 Houston. They would finish the conference schedule going 3-3 against ranked conference teams. The Cyclones ended the regular season with a loss to the Kansas State Wildcats, who they would turn around and face in the first round of the conference tournament. Iowa State rebounded from that loss in the best way, destroying Kansas State by 19, lighting a fire under the Cyclones. They would win their next game against Baylor and would dominate Houston in the conference championship game. They would go 3-0 with a +61-point differential in the Big 12 Tournament. Their conference tournament win earned the Cyclones the 2-Seed in the East Region and a first-round matchup against 15-Seed South Dakota State. They continued their winning ways, knocking off the Jackrabbits and the 7-Seed Washington State Cougars to reach the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, that fire would dim and was put out as they fell to 3-Seed Illinois.

Iowa State was largely successful thanks to their suffocating defense. The Cyclones allowed just 61.5 PPG, which was the second lowest mark in the Big 12 and the fourth lowest in the nation. They held opponents to a mere 40.2% FG% and just a 31.5% 3P%. Their offense was average, as they scored 75.3 PPG, which ranked seventh in the 14-team conference. They shot 46.3% as a team, 35.8% from deep, but they really struggled at the charity stripe as they cashed in on just 70.2% of their free-throws. Keshon Gilbert led the team with 13.7 PPG while averaging 4.4 RPG and 4.2 APG. Tamin Lipsey was right behind Gilbert, as he averaged 12.4 PPG and had a 39.1% 3P%. Curtis Jones (11 PPG) and Milan Momcilovic (10.9 PPG) were the other two Cyclones to average double-digit points.

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Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Iowa State is starting out in the Top 5 of the AP Poll because of everything they have coming back. They are returning all four double-digit scorers from last season and with that, all but one starter returns. The lone departing starter is Tre King, who ran out of eligibility. Key bench players Robert Jones and Hason Ward also graduated and are no longer with the team. In addition to those three, depth pieces Jelani Hamilton (Georgia State), Jackson Paveletzke (Ohio), Omaha Billiew (Wake Forest) transferred out of the program.

The Cyclones were active in the transfer portal, bringing in four players. Most notable of the group is center Dishon Jackson, who is coming over from Charlotte after averaging 11.4 PPG and 6.1 RPG. Jackson should be slotted in the starting lineup and should compliment Momcilovic in the post. In addition to Jackson, is Nate Heise (13.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG with Northern Iowa), Joshua Jefferson (10.2 PPG and 6.5 RPG with Saint Mary’s), Brandton Chatfield (9.4 PPG and 60.1% FG% with Seattle). Iowa State also signed four-star shooting guard Nojus Indrusaitis (95th nationally).

Iowa State Cyclones Basketball X-Factors

The Returning Four- Gilbert, Lipsey, Jones, and Momcilovic are all back and ready to run it back together this season. Not only did this group find themselves atop the team in scoring, Gilbert, Lipsey, and Jones combined for 6.1 SPG and led a Cyclones defense that was one of the best groups in the country. With the returning production bringing back all of those minutes and numbers, the Cyclones should have one of the best and most consistent starting five’s in the country and they added some solid scorers to come off the bench.

Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Notable Games

Home- #18 Marquette, #8 Baylor, #1 Kansas, #20 Cincinnati, #10 Arizona

Away/Neutral- #11 Auburn, Iowa, #10 Arizona, #1 Kansas, #4 Houston

Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +1600

Final Four: +330

Conference Winner: +470

Wooden Award: Tamin Lipsey- +6000

Wooden Award: Milan Momcilovic- +15000

AP Top 25- 5th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 7th

KenPom- 7th

Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Predictions

Iowa State lacks apparent stardom, but the returning minutes from their top four players last season is incredibly value. The Cyclones don’t have to worry about fitting new players in, outside of their new center in Jackson, and most of these guys know each other’s game and have gelled. They now have two proven scorers to come off the bench in Heise and Jefferson, with Heise joining Demarion Watson as dangerous three-point threats. They play in a tough conference, but proved they were capable of beating the other titans in the Big 12 (going 3-1 against the likes of Houston and Kansas). With the consistency and proven excellence of this squad, +470 to win the Big 12 seems like a great pick.

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