2023 Indianapolis Colts Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 7/27/2023

Indianapolis Colts predictions Anthony Richardson

You often hear the term “window” when people talk about teams in the NFL. “Window” has become to the NFL what “bubble” is to college basketball.

If you want a perfect example of how NFL “windows” open and close in the NFL, just look at the Indianapolis Colts.

Over the last 15 years, the Colts watched the championship windows of the Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck eras slam shut prematurely due to injuries to their star quarterbacks.

But when the Colts went 11-5 in the 2020 season, it looked like the foundation of a championship contender was set. And heading into 2021, the Colts looked like a team on the rise and a squad ready to muscle its way ahead of Kansas City and Buffalo. Their “window” was opening.

Two years, three quarterbacks, and three head coaches later, the Colts’ championship window in the AFC is as open as a solitary confinement cell in a Turkish prison.

Now Indianapolis is starting over. Again. New head coach Shane Steichen, erstwhile coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles offense, has a shiny new rookie quarterback that Colts faithful are hoping is the next franchise quarterback.

They are hoping he can pry that window to competitiveness back open.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2023 OFFENSE

First round draft pick Anthony Richardson is a high-risk, high-reward attempt for Steichen and the Colts. The Florida signal-caller was underwhelming (to say the least) in two years as a starter. Indy is banking on his raw athleticism to provide the foundation of a career similar to Cam Newton’s or Jalen Hurts’.

I’m not sold on Richardson, and I think he has huge bust potential.

The Colts brought in Gardner Minshew, who is familiar with Steichen’s system from his time in Philly. Yet it is unclear if they plan to start Minshew and wait for Richardson to mature or if the youngster will be thrown into the fire from Day 1.

The Colts will lean on one of the best offensive lines in football. Last year the line was an injury-riddled mess. When healthy, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith form the backbone of a line that was No. 2 in the league in rushing as recently as 2021.

The big problem for the Colts is that their skill position players stink. Matt Ryan deserved a lot of criticism for his horrendous play last year. He didn’t really have anyone to throw to, though, as Indy’s skill players were the worst in football.

Jonathan Taylor’s injury last season was the most predictable breakdown in football after his 372-touch campaign in 2021. If he returns healthy, he will give the Colts a legit bell-cow back. The drop-off behind him is steep.

Beyond that, there is nothing. Michael Pittman is a bad No. 2, and right now he’s the team’s go-to receiver. Alec Pierce has physical potential but hasn’t proven anything. And Isaiah McKenzie is trying to get out of Stefon Diggs’ shadow. The tight ends are all replacement-level parts.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2023 DEFENSE

Gus Bradley and his checkered performance history will again call the defense in Indianapolis. Bradley has guided six Top 10 defenses in 10 years as a coordinator. Yet his teams have finished ranked No. 23, No. 26, and No. 28 in scoring defense over the last three years.

“Just like with the offense, depth is a major issue on the defensive side of the ball.”

DeForest Buckner is the rock upon which this defense is built. He and defensive tackle Grover Stewart give the Colts two stalwarts along the defensive line. Big seasons from young pass rushers Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam are a must if this defense wants to finish in the Top 20.

The secondary is a disaster. They got rid of lockdown corner Stephon Gilmore, and his replacement, Isaiah Rodgers, is suspended for the season for gambling. Kenny Moore and Julian Blackmon are decent. Both are coming off injuries.

That means that two rookies, JuJu Brents and Darius Rush, could end up starting or seeing serious time in a secondary that will likely get shredded.

Shaq Leonard desperately needs to return after a 2022 lost to injury. He is a three-time All-Pro player and team leader. His uncertain contract situation – he could be cut after this season and void the final three years of his extension – will have an impact on his play, for good or ill.

Just like with the offense, depth is a major issue on the defensive side of the ball.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2023 SCHEDULE

The Colts will have the opportunity for a decent start. They have winnable games against Jacksonville (twice), Houston, the Rams and Tennessee all coming within the first six weeks.

If Minshew is under center, then Indy will have an opportunity to stock some wins and build some confidence.

Indianapolis benefits from crossing over with the NFC South, the weakest division in the NFC. That is balanced out by having to face the best division in football, the AFC North.

Week 1: 9/10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 P.M.

Week 2: 9/17 at Houston Texans, 1 P.M.

Week 3: 9/24 at Baltimore Ravens, 1 P.M.

Week 4: 10/1 vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 P.M.

Week 5: 10/8 vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 P.M.

Week 6: 10/15 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 P.M.

Week 7: 10/22 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 P.M.

Week 8: 10/29 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 P.M.

Week 9: 11/5 at Carolina Panthers, 4 P.M.

Week 10: 11/12 at New England Patriots (Germany), 9:30 A.M.

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: 11/26 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 P.M.

Week 13: 12/3 at Tennessee Titans, 1 P.M.

Week 14: 12/10 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 P.M.

Week 15: TBD, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, TBD

Week 16: 12/24 at Atlanta Falcons, 1 P.M.

Week 17: 12/31 vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 1 P.M.

Week 18: TBD, vs. Houston Texans, TBD, TBD

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

This is going to be one of the worst teams in football, and the Colts will be battling with the Cardinals for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.

I am a big fan of Gardner Minshew’s. The guy can play. If the Colts start Minshew, then I think they will cobble together some offense, despite their feeble receiving options, and at least be entertaining.

If the Colts start Richardson then they are in for a long, ugly season.

Regardless of who is under center, the defense isn’t nearly strong enough to carry the load, and I think that this team is going to be involved in a lot of shootouts.

In fact, I think there will be some early season betting value on the ‘over’ with this team (if Minshew starts). The defense is bad. They have an offensive-minded head coach. And the numbers will be depressed because this team was so pathetic (17.0 PPG) offensively last year.

As for a season win total projection, I’m taking the ‘under’.

The Colts haven’t won fewer than five games in back-to-back seasons since 1997-98. However, that was a transition period from Lindy Infante and Jim Harbaugh to Jim Mora and Peyton Manning. This is another transition year, and things will get uglier before they get better.

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