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2024-25 Indiana Pacers Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/4/2024

Indiana Pacers predictions Tyrese Haliburton

The Indiana Pacers went all-in at the trade deadline last season, trading away their future for Pascal Siakam’s signature. The massive trade, combined with their young core, allowed the Pacers to win a playoff series for the first time since 2014. Can Indiana take the next step towards their first championship since 1973, or will they turn back into a play-in tournament caliber team we have gotten used to seeing?

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Indiana Pacers Offseason Recap

The Pacers had a relatively quiet offseason, failing to acquire any big names in free agency. Their most notable loss was Jalen Smith, who started 14 games for the Pacers last season. The Pacers managed to keep the meaningful portion of their roster intact and will look to build on their promising season last year. 

The Pacers traded for Siakam with just a few months left on his contract but re-signed the Cameroon native over the summer. Siakam’s 4-year, $189 million contract makes him the 25th highest paid player by AAV, which is a pretty fair price tag for a player of his age and caliber. 

Indiana Pacers Season Expectations

The expectation for the Pacers heading into the year is to at least replicate their Eastern Conference Finals appearance from last season. Indiana won their first playoff series in a decade against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. They then followed that up with another victory against the New York Knicks, beating the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in Game 7. The Celtics proved to be too tough of a task, as the Pacers were swept one round before the NBA Finals. 

The Pacers are a promising team with a majority of their roster still in their 20’s. Thirty-year-old Siakam and 28-year-old Myles Turner are the two veterans on the squad, with Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, and Benedict Mathurin all aged 25 or younger. As a result of their age, the Pacers frequently push the pace of play and find themselves competing in absolute shootouts on a regular basis. 

The Pacers offense is not to be doubted, but the lack of a strong defense will always cap how far this team can go. There were 150 or more points scored by a team 10 times last season. Remarkably, the Pacers were the ones who scored 150+ in four of those 10 games, but they also allowed 150+ four separate times last season. The Pacers young core will always push the pace. However, it doesn’t matter how many points they score if they give up transition baskets the other way. 

The leader of this offense and this team as a whole is Tyrese Haliburton. He led the league with 10.9 Assists per game last season while turning the ball over only 2.3 times. His ability to spread the floor with not only his ball movement, but constant threat of a jump shot, makes him an incredibly tough matchup. He saw both his PPG and Assist totals drop in the postseason, but that was likely due to the increased level of competition rather than poor play from Haliburton. 

The Pacers will expect to at the very least secure a top 6 seed in the Eastern Conference to avoid a play-in tournament appearance. It’s troubling that the Pacers didn’t bring in any defensive reinforcements over the summer, which makes it hard to bet on them to make a deep playoff run in a competitive Eastern Conference. They will be able to run over the weak teams, but teams that are elite on both ends of the court rather than just one side will easily overcome Indiana. 

Indiana Pacers Schedule Breakdown

The Pacers have a tough start to the year, as they face off against the Knicks, 76ers, Magic, and Celtics after they open up the year against the Pistons. These four games against what will be their competitors at the season’s end could go a long way in shaping the playoff bracket. Their toughest stretch of schedule is in December, where they play 9 of their first 11 games on the road. It allows them to play 11 of their final 15 games at home, which could be the hot streak headed into the playoffs they need. 

Indiana Pacers Odds

Indiana’s win total is set at 47.5 wins, which would be the most collected since the 2013-14 season. There is no doubt the Pacers have the roster needed to be one of the league’s best teams, but it’s hard to see them put it all together over the course of a season. Their defense is still a real issue, and teams have now had a full offseason to examine and pick apart their stunning offense. They are -750 to reach the postseason and have the 16th best odds to win the championship at +5000. 

In the NBA Cup, the Pacers are +200 to finish on top of their group with the Bucks, Heat, Pistons, and Raptors. The upside on a team like the Pacers in the tournament format provides a unique betting opportunity. It’s hard to see the Pacers beat a team like the Celtics in a 7-game series, but they could certainly get hot from behind the arc in a single game. 

2024-25 Indiana Pacers Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Pacers had a great year last year, finishing 6th place with a 47-35 record. Their win total of 47.5 wins implies they will match or improve their record, which I just don’t see happening. The Pacers took the league by surprise with their high-flying offense last year. This year teams will be better prepared to handle the Pacers and their up-tempo style. The Under 47.5 wins is a good pick to make, but there is an even better bet with plus money odds. 

The Pacers are +120 odds to participate in the play-in tournament, which is the top pick to make this offseason. Indiana only avoided the play-in tournament last year via tiebreaker and will not have the same fortune this season. The Celtics, Bucks, Knicks, and 76ers will all likely finish ahead of the Pacers. That leaves the Heat, Cavaliers, Magic, and Indiana competing for the final two automatic playoff berths. When the Pacers finish with a record of 44-38, they will need to win one more game to book their place in the postseason. 

There is some upside in the NBA Cup and NBA championship markets, but the lack of Pacers defense will ultimately cost them any chance at tangible glory. 

Top Pick: Indiana Pacers to Participate in the Play-in Tournament +120

Pick: Indiana Pacers Under 47.5 Wins -110

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