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2024-25 Indiana Hoosiers Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/22/2024

Indiana Hoosiers basketball predictions Malik Reneau

Last season was not a kind one to Hoosier fans as they saw virtually no postseason play after a 19-14 season. Indiana started the season winning seven of their first eight games, but it was clear they would not be able to keep up with the stronger competition that awaited them in conference play. The Hoosiers went just 10-10 in Big Ten play, while going 0-6 against AP Top 25 opponents. Indiana barely beat Penn State in the first round of the conference tournament, taking the game 61-59. However, their season ended in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, losing by 17 to Nebraska.

Kel’el Ware (15.9 PPG) and Malik Reneau (15.4 PPG) were the top two scorers and rebounders for Indiana last season. Ware’s 9.9 RPG ranked 21st in the nation while also ranking 22nd in the nation with a 58.6% FG%. Reneau was just as efficient as a scorer, shooting 55.8%. Mackenzie Mgbako was a solid compliment to those two, as he was third on the team in scoring as he averaged 12.2 PPG while shooting a team best 82.1% from the charity stripe. However, behind those three there was little to be excited about. As a team, Indiana averaged just 72.3 PPG which was 12th in the Big Ten, despite ranking third in the conference with a 47.6% FG%. Their 56 field goal attempts were the worst in the Big Ten. They were also last in the conference with a -8.6% FT% differential. On defense, the Hoosiers allowed 74.3 PPG while also allowing over 10 offensive RPG.

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Indiana Hoosiers Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Ware has moved on and is now a member of the Miami Heat, leaving big shoes to fill in the paint for Indiana. Role players CJ Gunn (DePaul), Kaleb Banks (Tulane), and Payton Sparks (Ball State) all left for lower tier schools. Though Ware is a significant loss, losing the other three role players hurt the depth outlook heading into the offseason.

Well, Indiana did more than fill the holes. They got better, much better. They immediately replaced Ware with Oumar Ballo who averaged a double-double last season for the Arizona Wildcats as the big man averaged 12.9 PPG and 10.1 RPG. He was one of just 17 players from last season to average a double-double. In addition to Ballo, Indiana brought in guards Myles Rice (14.8 PPG with Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (11.5 PPG at Stanford) while also bringing in centers Langdon Hatton (10.5/7.1 at Bellarmine) and Dallas James (South Carolina State). To round out their transfer class the Hoosiers brought in sharpshooting forward Luke Goode who is a career 39.2% 3-Point shooter in his three years with Illinois. All this talent gave Indiana the second-best transfer class of the offseason. To add on, they also signed four-star forward Bryson Tucker who was ranked 30th in the class and the 10th overall forward.

Indiana Hoosiers Basketball X-Factors

Nonconference Schedule- After going just 19-14 last season, Indiana heads into this season with some lofty expectations to return to relevancy. The beginning of their schedule could not be more kind to the Hoosiers. They have a tough non-conference game against South Carolina, but other than that they play a Louisville program which has been terrible lately and then a bunch of mid-majors. Though it is a cupcake start, this could be dangerous for the rest of the nation as Indiana has a bunch of trial games to find what works best for their newly put together team and allow for these guys to bond on the court; Or it will provide us bettors false hope as we overvalue what should be a great and potentially undefeated record by January.

Conference Schedule- Come January, Indiana will take on their first ranked opponent as they host #25 Rutgers, kicking off their continuous run of conference games. They only have one road game against an AP Top 25 team as they travel to Purdue at the end of January. Every other ranked team will travel to Indiana. Ohio State and Oregon could be potential trap games on the road, but due to their presumed success in nonconference play, the Hoosiers can afford to lose a few games in conference play.

Indiana Hoosiers Basketball Notable Games

Home- South Carolina, #25 Rutgers, #22 UCLA, #14 Purdue, Illinois

Away/Neutral- Louisville, Ohio State, #14 Purdue, Oregon

Indiana Hoosiers Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +6000

Final Four: +1500

Conference Winner: +750

Wooden Award: Oumar Ballo - +10000

Wooden Award: Mackenzie Mgbako - +15000

Wooden Award: Malik Reneau - +25000

AP Top 25- 17th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 11th

KenPom- 39th

Indiana Hoosiers Basketball Predictions

This Hoosiers team is dangerous and could easily end up winning the Big Ten conference. Losing a player like Ware who was so versatile and productive is never a good thing, but Indiana somehow managed to improve their starting five and their bench over the offseason. Mgbako and Reneau will run it back together while welcoming Rice, Carlyle, and Ballo as the other starters. Ballo has the potential to be better than Ware was in his time in Bloomington, and the bench has weapons like Goode, Hatton, and Trey Galloway. I think the Hoosiers are the best team in the Big Ten and definitely has Final Four potential.

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