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2024-25 Houston Rockets Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/4/2024

Houston Rockets predictions Dillon Brooks

The Houston Rockets had their best season since the days of James Harden last year, going an even 41-41. They appear to be exiting their rebuild with a solid core of potential superstars. The Rockets are expected to challenge for the playoffs this season. However, is that too much to ask from a still developing team?

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Houston Rockets Offseason Recap

The Rockets had what was likely the quietest offseason in the NBA. They released a few bench players into free agency and picked up a few depth players to replace them. Their top 12 players in terms of both minutes and points remain in Houston, and they didn’t acquire anyone who will be playing meaningful minutes in Houston. 

While the Rockets didn’t intend to make any impactful changes to their roster, the NBA gods had other plans. Houston struck gold by shooting all the way up to third overall in the NBA draft lottery last season. Their strong roster capable of finishing 41-41 received a huge boost for not only the present, but the future for this rebuilding franchise too. Houston used the third overall pick to select Reed Sheppard from the University of Kentucky. 

The decision to take Sheppard over the other draft prospects says a lot about where this franchise is in their rebuild. Sheppard has a much lower ceiling than many of the other early draft picks, but he also has a much lower floor. He is very good at performing a specific role and will instantly contribute to the Rockets offense. His athleticism is underrated. And if he is left open, he will usually punish defenders. However, he lacks the tools needed to be a real superstar. Sheppard can’t really create his own scoring chances and lacks the dribbling movies to break down defenders in isolation. 

Houston Rockets Season Expectations

It’s probably a little early to start expecting the Rockets to compete for a title, but the front office will be hopeful they can at least make the postseason. Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks have been tasked with leading this uber-young team on a nightly basis. The undrafted VanVleet knows what it takes to make a name for yourself in this league and is the perfect role model for the 20- and 21-year-olds on the roster. VanVleet also sank 3.1 triples per game with a 38.7% success rate last season, both of which were team highs. 

One of the players VanVleet and the hot-tempered Brooks have been tasked with developing is Alperen Sengun. The 21-year-old Sengun finished third in ‘Most Improved Player’ voting last year, catapulting himself up the NBA power rankings in his third season. He posted a 21/9/5 statline last season, all three of which were career bests. Sengun looks like an aspiring Nikola Jokic, as his ability to keep his head up for teammates is like few other big men in the league. He played only 63 games last season and will be hoping he can remain on the court for more of the season this year. 

The Rockets have a strong roster full of young players but find themselves in an extremely competitive Western Conference. If they are looking to make the playoffs this year, they would have to take the place of a team like the Clippers, Suns, or Pelicans. That feels like a tall task with their current roster. However, after picking up 19 additional wins compared to two years ago, they are certainly up for the task. 

Houston Rockets Schedule Breakdown

The Rockets have the chance to get off to a hot start, as they open up the season with home games against the Hornets and Grizzlies before a pair of road games against the Spurs. Thanks to their central location in the United States, Houston is usually able to avoid any long road trips over the course of a season. This year is no exception, as the Rockets have one only four-game road trip, and the rest are three or fewer games. 

Houston Rockets Odds

The Houston Rockets sailed past their 31.5 win total last season with their 41 victories. The oddsmakers will not make the same mistake again, as they have bumped their total all the way up to 43.5 wins. That gives the Rockets +100 odds to make the postseason and +130 odds to participate in the play-in tournament. Despite these reasonable odds to participate in postseason play, the Rockets have the 20th best title odds at +10000. The Rockets certainly don’t have the personnel to make a deep playoff run, but their young team should allow them to remain competitive throughout the season. 

In the NBA Cup, the Rockets have +5000 odds to win the trophy and +450 odds to win the West Group A. Houston is in a very manageable group with the Timberwolves, Kings, Clippers, and Trail Blazers. The Rockets avoided arguably the best three teams in the conference and will be optimistic they can escape the group stage. 

2024-25 Houston Rockets Season Predictions and Best Bets

Heading into last season, I was extremely high on the Rockets, calling for bets on 35+ wins at +170 odds and 40+ wins at +570 odds. While I was correct then, I won’t be taking aggressive lines with the Rockets this season. After they blew past their total last year, the bookies have overrated with this line, making the Under the best play. A total of 43.5 wins puts the Rockets in the same category as the Warriors (43.5), Lakers (43.5), and Pelicans (46.5). While the Rockets are no longer a bottom feeder, it is still hard to see them competing with those three over the course of a season. All three of those teams finished with 5 or more wins than Houston last year, and the lack of changes for the Rockets has me leaning to the Under. Their core will get better as they age, so I’ll give the Rockets one more win than last year for a 42-40 record, but nothing more than that. 

Pick: Houston Rockets Under 43.5 Wins 

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