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2025 Houston Astros Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/26/2025

Houston Astros predictions Yordan Alvarez

The Houston Astros won the AL West last season, as they finished the regular season with a 88-73 record, finishing the year with a 3.5 game lead over the second place Seattle Mariners. The Astros actually finished three games worse than their expected record of 91-70, as they went just 24-37 in either one-run games or extra innings. Despite winning their division, their postseason was short lived as they were swept by the Detroit Tigers, losing both games as Houston was limited to just three runs total in the series.

Yordan Alvarez has continued to be the best bat in the Astros lineup, as the slugger finished with a 5.4 WAR after hitting 35 homeruns and posting a .959 OPS. He also led his team with 86 RBIs and a .308 AVG. Kyle Tucker finished second on the team with a 4.7 WAR despite being limited to 78 games due to injury. Tucker still hit 23 homeruns and had a .993 OPS in his shortened season. Jeremy Pena and Alex Bregman were tied for third on the team, as each player recorded a 4.1 WAR. Both players recorded 70 or more RBIs and scored more than 70 runs. Jose Altuve finished with a team best 22 stolen bases while hitting 20 homeruns and 65 RBIs. Pena was the only other Astros player to reach the 20-stolen base mark. The Astros finished 11th in runs scored, 10th in homeruns, and eighth in OPS.

Their pitching staff was also as reliable as ever. They finished sixth in the league with a Team ERA of 3.74 while ranking in the top half of the league in WHIP and third in strikeouts. The starting rotation was consistent all season, with four pitchers recording 145 innings or more and at least 28 starts. Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco led the team with a 4.5 WAR, as Valdez had a 2.91 ERA across 176.1 innings finishing with a 15-7 record. Blanco recorded a 2.80 ERA across 167.1 innings, posting a 13-6 record. Hunter Brown also had a solid season, posting a 3.49 ERA across 170 innings and leading the team with 19 quality starts. The bullpen was solid despite Josh Hader posting a 3.80 ERA. Bryan Abreu recorded 38 holds across 78.1 innings and finished with an 11.8 K/9 ratio and a 3.10 ERA. Tayler Scott was just as good, as he posted a 2.23 ERA over 68.2 innings of work.

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Houston Astros Key Additions/Losses

After their postseason disappointment, the Astros lost a slew of veterans to free agency. Pitchers Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Hector Neris, Kendall Graveman, and Caleb Ferguson hit the market, as well as outfielder Jason Heyward. However, there was no more notable loss than Bregman, who is now a member of the Boston Red Sox. The Astros also traded Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly to the Cubs in separate deals.

The team would acquire Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and youngster Cam Smith in return for Tucker, but that is far from replacing all they lost. They did make a splash by signing slugger Christian Walker, which now gives Houston two of the best power hitters in the league in Walker and Alvarez. Houston also took fliers on infielders Brendan Rodgers, Luis Guillorme, and Zack Short as well as reliever Miguel Castro.

Houston Astros Prospect Outlook

Losing Tucker and Bregman is big, and they don’t have a lot of exciting prospects to replace this aging Astros roster. Houston has the worst farm-system in the MLB with just one prospect listed in the MLB’s Top 100 Prospect list. Smith, coming in the return for Tucker, is now the top-rated prospect in the Houston farm system, and he is ranked 59th in the league. However, outside of Smith, the internal system is incredibly weak, and it may look even weaker next season if the Astros package Smith and some of their other prospects as they are in win now mode thanks to their aging roster.

Houston Astros X-Factors

Starting Rotation- The Astros rotation will feature Valdez, Brown, Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, and Wesneski. Outside of Valdez and Brown, the rest of the rotation is widely unproven. Blanco had a great season after a shaky couple of seasons to start his career, while Arrighetti is coming off his rookie year where he had a 4.53 ERA. Wesneski made just seven starts last season and has a 4.25 ERA across his first two full MLB seasons. The bottom three could easily be replaced by Lance McCullers, Christian Javier, or Luis Garcia, but all three are coming off major arm injuries and can not be relied on until later in the season. The lineup is still going to produce. However, now the rotation has some major depth concerns, and their inability to produce or stay healthy will have major implications on just how far the Astros will go this season.

Depth- As a whole, depth is an issue for Houston. Not only in the rotation, but the bottom half of their lineup and beyond, especially in the outfield. Altuve is likely headed to left field thanks to his declining defensive metrics at second base, and he will be joined by Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers in the outfield. However, an injury to any of these three will have some major ramifications. McCormick and Meyers are unreliable at the plate, and their backups Ben Gamel and Taylor Trammell aren’t any better with their bats. Any injury to a position player, especially a long term one, can ruin the season. The Astros have no depth.

Houston Astros Expectations

On paper, their roster still showcases names like Valdez atop the rotation and a dangerous 1-2 punch of Alvarez and Walker, which has led to the Astros once again being favored to take home the AL West crown. However, the Seattle Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball, and the Texas Rangers may finally be healthy enough to return to postseason form. Houston’s winning window is closing with the majority of their core in another uniform or ageing, so you can expect the Astros to empty the farm in order to add some key pieces before the deadline and mitigate any depth issues that may hold them back. They still have the pieces in place to be dangerous in a playoff series, but this is not the same beast that once roamed in southeast Texas.

Houston Astros Notable Odds:

Win Total: 86.5

World Series Champions- +2100

Pennant Winners- +850

Division Winners- +170

AL MVP- Yordan Alvarez +750

AL MVP- Jose Altuve +8500

AL Cy Young- Hunter Brown +2000

AL Cy Young- Framber Valdez +2200

2025 Houston Astros Predictions

Yordan Alvarez is the only player pick I would go with here. Alvarez may have the best bat in the league when he is healthy, and as a full-time DH all he has to do is focus on producing at the plate. He now has solid protection with Walker behind him in the lineup and another table setter in Paredes right before him, which should only improve his numbers. If the Astros are to put themselves in prime playoff position, it will likely be to Alvarez’s success at the plate. At +750, he is definitely worth a look at winning the AL MVP, especially with Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. lacking protection in their respective lineups.

As for the win total, I am going to take the under here. The Rangers added some bats and are getting their rotation healthy, while the Mariners have five shutdown starting pitchers and are in a position to empty their farm as well to add to their lineup. The Astros will compete for a final wild card spot, as we saw two wild card spots in the American League go to 86-win teams. However, that is the ceiling, and Houston could very well have their winning window slammed shut this season.

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