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Horses that Can Win the Preakness Stakes in 2024

by Spencer Toth - 5/16/2024

Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes is the second race in the Triple Crown. And while it may be smaller than the Kentucky Derby, there is still plenty of money to be made. The race takes place on the third Saturday in May, with this year’s edition going down on May 18. There are only 8 competitors remaining after betting favorite Muth was forced to withdraw with a fever, leaving a wide-open field for the remaining competitors. Some horses have emerged as the new frontrunners, so let’s take a look at the horses that can win Preakness Stakes in the 2024 edition of the race.

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Mystik Dan: Post Position, 5 (5-2)

The Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is the frontrunner for the Preakness Stakes, offering a 5/2 price on his victory. Mystik Dan won the Derby by mere inches, as a three-way photo finish was needed to determine the winner. He was able to navigate the sloppy track conditions well. Rain is on the forecast for Saturday, making Mystik Dan a serious threat to win the second Triple Crown race of the year. Trainer Kenneth McPeek took home the 2020 Preakness Stakes victory and will be looking to add another major win to his already illustrious resume. McPeek has trained dozens of proven winners, and it looks as though he has another strong horse with Mystik Dan.

However, this price is simply too low. Mystik Dan’s Kentucky Derby win was impressive, and there is absolutely nothing that can be taken away from his remarkable win. But, Kentucky Derby winners are not necessarily a shoe-in for a Preakness Stakes win, even with the reduced field of competitors. The sloppy track conditions will play into Mystik Dan’s hand, but we are here to make money, and in the long run, taking 5/2 bets on horses like this is not a profitable endeavor. The outright favorite has won just four of the last 18 Preakness Stakes, as this race is incredibly wide open. Mystik Dan certainly fits into the category of ‘Horses Who Can Win Preakness Stakes,’ but that doesn’t make him an automatically good bet. Better options are available with longer odds, and we will look there for value.

Pick: Pass

Imagination: Post Position 8, (6-1)

Imagination is one of the front runners to win the Preakness Stakes now that Muth has withdrawn. Trainer Bob Baffert will be devastated Muth is no longer competing, but that opens the door to his other horse, Imagination. Baffert has trained countless winners, including a pair of Triple Crown winners earlier in his career. At the Preakness Stakes, his horses have won an incredible 8 races, including last year’s win with National Treasure.

Imagination has finished in the top two of each of his last 6 races but hasn’t been facing the stiffest competition. He’s posted speeds in the mid 90’s this year. And while that may be good enough to win at the Preakness Stakes, he has benefitted from favorable track conditions. The expected sloppy track at this year’s event will ensure Imagination will have to battle through adversity to do Baffert justice. Imagination will almost certainly jump out to an early lead, and it is whether or not he can maintain his speed throughout the lengthy race. He lost to Stronghold at the Santa Anita Derby last month, posting a 92 speed in the tight race. While the cards may be stacked against him, with Imagination getting all of Baffert’s attention, he is certainly worth a shot at 6-1 odds. We’ve already gone over Mystik Dan’s faults, and Imagination is the next best option with a much bigger upside. Stamina may not be the most important factor in this specific race, but that will undoubtedly have been Baffert’s focus. Jockey Frankie Dettori is in the latter stages of his career, but his experience could be what gets Imagination over the line this weekend.

Pick: Imagination 6-1

Catching Freedom: Post Position 3, 6-1

The other horse coming in with 6-1 odds is Catching Freedom. There is no doubt the Kentucky Derby result is not what this team was looking for, but Catching Freedom still has a legitimate shot at winning the Preakness Stakes. Catching Freedom won the 2023 Louisiana Derby and will look to get back to winning ways this weekend. His 95 speed rating is among the best at this race. And if he can navigate the sloppy conditions, a victory could be on the cards. Jockey Flavian Prat is among the best and has already won the Preakness Stakes with Rombauer in 2021. He has the confidence to succeed at this year’s event.

On paper, Catching Freedom is a must bet at 6-1 odds. He is one of the faster straight-line horses, but his poor Kentucky Derby showing has me looking in other directions. If he faces early adversity once again, he will struggle to make a late comeback at this race. He found himself with ground to make up earlier this month. And while I expect him to show, it won’t be with a victory. Catching Freedom is a great pick to do well at Preakness Stakes, but an outright victory is too much to ask. When he inevitably finds himself trailing, even with a late push, he will fall just short.

Pick: Catching Freedom to Place: 1-1 or better

Longshot:

Tuscan Gold: Post Position 8, (8-1)

This isn’t quite as long as most Preakness Stakes longshots would be, but the value on Tuscan Gold at 8-1 odds cannot be overlooked. Tuscan Gold sat out the Kentucky Derby, and he will be extremely fresh for this event. Preakness Stakes horses who voluntarily sat out the Kentucky Derby have traditionally done well at this event. The small hype surrounding Tuscan Gold will explode into a full on bandwagon with his victory. He has only three races under his metaphorical belt, by far the fewest in the field. He finished third to Catching Freedom at last year’s Louisiana Derby, losing by less than two lengths. There is more than enough upside to take a shot with this rested, and explosive, horse, making him the best ‘medium shot’ bet at this year’s event.

Pick: Tuscan Gold 8-1

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