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Horses that Can Win the Kentucky Derby in 2024

by Spencer Toth - 5/1/2024

2013 Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby draws the most eyes compared to the dozens of horse races taking place daily, and this year will be no exception. A Kentucky Derby victory would etch the winner’s name into the history books, with millions of dollars on the line in this event. Some horses have emerged as the favorites, thanks to prep race victories and strong previous showings, and there are only a handful with legitimate hopes to win this illustrious prize. Here’s a look at the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby, and whether or not there is any value in their current betting line.

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Fierceness: Post Position 17, +150 

Fierceness is the clear favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, and it’s hard to argue with this line. Jockey John Velazquez has already won the Kentucky Derby on 3 separate occasions (2011, 2017, 2020) and will be looking to further grow his immaculate reputation with an elusive fourth win. Velazquez is the consensus best jockey in the business, and it’s not surprising to see his horse at the top of the betting list. Velazquez has the bravery needed to control these beasts and is excellent at maintaining pace throughout the race. This will be especially important with the 1.25-mile length of the Kentucky Derby.

Fierceness already won the Florida Derby, which has been the prep race that has produced the most Kentucky Derby champions. The 15 previous Florida Derby winners is by far the most compared to the other prep races, with Always Dreaming in 2017 being the most recent horse to win both events. Fierceness has looked good through the first weeks of the season, with Velazquez heaping praise on his recent performances. The jockey was quoted saying ‘this is one of the easiest horses I’ve ever ridden,’ citing that Fierceness is extremely receptive to his commands and pushes into an extra gear when necessary. Their connection over the last few years has grown even stronger, and arguments could be made that Fierceness deserves to be an even bigger betting favorite. It’s often difficult to find a plus-money price on the best horse, with the most accomplished jockey, making Fierceness an excellent horse to back at this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Pick: Fierceness +150

Sierra Leone: Post Position 2, +200

The biggest threat to a Fierceness victory is Sierra Leone. Trainer Chad Brown has brought up several competitive horses in recent years, but he has yet to win the elusive Kentucky Derby. While he may be winless, he has finished 2nd and 3rd in the last 6 years and has another strong contender for another podium finish. Sierra Leone won the Blue Glass Stakes prep race to get ready for the big event, which has produced several notable Kentucky Derby champions over the years. While no Blue Grass winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby since 2007, the prep race is still a great indicator that Sierra Leone has what it takes to compete with the world’s best horses. Sierra Leone is a powerful young horse, and trainer Chad Brown has proven he can produce top competitors. The biggest question mark is the jockey.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has competed in 6 previous Kentucky Derbies but has yet to place (Finish Top 3) at the event. This is certainly his best opportunity to finally break that threshold, but that doesn’t mean Sierra Leone is necessarily a good investment to win at these odds. Tyler Gaffalione is a rising star jockey, and he will likely eventually win the Kentucky Derby. However, he is still far less polished than his competitors. And while he will eventually take the next step, it is unlikely to be this year. Winning the Kentucky Derby will be the goal for Sierra Leone, but they may have to settle for Tyler Gaffalione first podium finish instead.

Pick: Pass

Catching Freedom: Post Position 4, +700

The odds have jumped mightily for the third favorite, as a juicy +700 payout is on offer for Catching Freedom. Catching Freedom was unable to win any of the major prep races but will be confident he can build on his 2023 win at the Louisiana Derby. His 95 HRN Speed figure from that race was ahead of the rest of the field, and adding a Kentucky Derby victory to his resume would elevate him further up the current power rankings. Jockey Flavien Prat already has the 2019 Kentucky Derby on his mantle and would love nothing more than to add his name to the exclusive list of multiple Derby winners. In Prat’s 6 Kentucky Derby’s, he’s placed in 5 of them, with his massive +6400 2019 victory sticking out as the prized result. It wasn’t without controversy, as he won via disqualification, but his consistent top finishes are hard to overlook.

Catching Freedom is one of the more experienced horses at this event, with his Louisiana Derby victory under his figurative belt. The training staff will be confident their horse has what it takes to compete with the best, and it’s honestly hard to argue with the value with these odds. Catching Freedom still has an excellent +700 payout attached to his victory and will be a great look at the minimum place at the event. Flavien Prat may have to take some risks if he is to push for the outright win. And, at these odds, this is an excellent horse to back.

Pick: Catching Freedom +700

Longshot:

Track Phantom: Post Position 12, +1900

There are no shortage of longshots to back at the Kentucky Derby, and Track Phantom is the clear best choice from the underdogs. Jockey Florent Geroux already has a Kentucky Derby victory to his name, having proven he has what it takes to navigate the lengthy course. Track Phantom has the straight-line speed to take home the crown but will need to manage his stamina across the long race. Geroux is the perfect jockey for a horse like Track Phantom, as his experience, combined with gutsy style, makes him an extremely live underdog. This will be his 8th Kentucky Derby in his career, with a pair of Places already to his name. Track Phantom finished 4th in the Louisiana Derby behind winner Catching Freedom in 2023 and finished strong down the stretch that afternoon. Any +1900 wager will always have its drawbacks, but Track Phantom is exactly the type of horse capable of pulling off the mammoth upset.

Pick: Track Phantom +1900

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