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Honor Marie Odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/29/2024

Honor Marie odds to win the Kentucky Derby

One of the fundamental tenets of real estate is "location, location, location." The same axiom applies to horse racing, as certain post positions have had more success in the Kentucky Derby than others. The most successful post position at the "Run for the Roses" has been the 5th-post position, with 10 wins to its credit, the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017. One of the more interesting early morning long shots, the 20-1 Honor Marie, was selected for the 7th-post position. Not only has this starting spot produced seven winners, including the most recent Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018, but it has also yielded a total of 20 in-the-money (ITM) finishes, tied for the fourth-most finishes in Kentucky Derby history. All of this bodes well for the very live 20-1 long shot Honor Marie.

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Breeding: The breeding lineage of Honor Marie is of the highest quality, with his sire being the multiple Grade 1-stakes winner Honor Code out of the Dame Marie by Smart Strike. A favorable trend for handicapping big races is being sired by strong performers who know how to win, especially graded-stakes winners. The speed demon Honor Code checks that box emphatically with two G1 triumphs (2015 Metropolitan and 2015 Whitney) and two G2 victories (2013 Remsen and 2015 Gulfstream Park Handicap). Honor Code's final race was a third-place finish in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which was won by that year's Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah. Dame Marie had eight ITM finishes in her 17-race career, including four victories in allowances and a second-place finish in the 2014 Distaff Turf Mile (G2).

Trainer: Hometown boy Whit Beckman trained under Todd Pletcher, Eoin Harty, and Chad Brown before going out on his own in the fall of 2021. Beckman achieved his first graded-stakes victory as a head trainer when Honor Marie won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November. The lack of experience factor won't be nearly as detrimental to the Louisville native Beckman.

Jockey: Honor Marie's trainer Whit Beckham was planning on making a change in jockeys from Rafael Bejarano to Florent Geroux for the Louisiana Derby. However, complications arose, and Beckham was left to find another rider. He chose Ben Curtis, the Irish jockey who had moved across the pond in 2021 to further his riding career. After Honor Marie's strong second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, Beckham elected to keep Curtis in the mount.

Prior experience: Honor Marie became a first-time-out winner when he won a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on September 29 over six furlongs. He bumped up to an allowance class race over seven furlongs exactly one month later. He closed and battled for the lead before finishing in second on a sloppy track. That finish gave Beckman enough confidence to take another step up in class a month later, as Honor Marie ran in the 1 1/16-mile 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He trailed the pack for the first half of the race before being asked to close, which he did so splendidly. He won in fashion by two lengths and earned 10 Kentucky Derby points. Honor Marie's first race in his 3-year-old campaign came on February 17 in the talent-laden 2024 Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Track. On a sloppy track, Honor Marie was once again a deep closer but started his bid too late, finishing 5th. While this may seem disappointing, it's worth noting that the four finishers above him are all entered in the Kentucky Derby as well. A little more than a month later, Honor Marie tried his luck again in the 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2), also at the Fair Grounds. He laid back and saved ground for the first half of the race but shifted to the outside when he entered the upper stretch. He had a spirited battle with his deep-closing partner, and eventual winner, Catching Freedom as they picked off the horses ahead of them. Honor Marie picked up another 50 points for the Kentucky Derby, solidifying his position on the leaderboard.

Odds, Analysis, and Prediction: Honor Marie opened in the morning line at 20-1. While the first-time trainer and jockey may be a warning sign, a significant factor contributing to Honor Marie's elevated odds is his loss to four of his Kentucky Derby opponents at the Risen. While that is not without its worries, the sloppy track certainly didn't help his deep closing style. When running on fast surfaces, he's more than capable of being in the mix. Honor Marie's best performances have come from races that have had fast paces. The last two Kentucky Derbys have had quick paces as well. And if a speedy pace breaks out on Saturday, Honor Marie could end up the beneficiary, as well as the bettors who backed him.

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