PGA Picks: Hero World Challenge Predictions and Betting Odds

The FedEx Cup Fall concluded just over a week ago with the RSM Classic. The PGA Tour has one more event, albeit informal, left on the docket. There is a small field of golfers this week, only 20. However, the field at this week's Hero World Challenge isn't void of superstars.

Leading the way and sitting firmly atop the betting board this week is the No. 1 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler. The New Jersey native took home the trophy at last year’s event after finishing runner-up the previous two years.

You likely already know Scheffler’s odds are almost unplayable, but 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in his three Hero World Challenge starts is undeniable. Justin Thomas has played exceptionally well here at the Albany Course in Nassau and has more than double the experience on these links than the betting favorite. 

Ludvig Aberg will make his second start post-knee surgery. Last year's runner-up, Austria's Sepp Straka, is 33-1 to win the tournament. There's value to be had from top to bottom. Let's break down the Bahamas' Albany Course and select a few golfers who can take advantage of one of the more leisurely stops on Tour.

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Hero World Challenge Winner Betting Odds

Scottie Scheffler: +260

Justin Thomas: +900

Ludvig Aberg: +1100

Patrick Cantlay: +1200

Sahith Theegala: +1400

Sungjae Im: +1400

Russell Henley: +1400

Sam Burns: +1600

Tom Kim: +2200

Wyndham Clark: +2500

Akshay Bhatia: +2500

Aaron Rai: +2800

Sepp Straka: +3300

Albany Golf Course: Course Characteristics

The Albany Course is an Ernie Els-designed links-style golf course in the beautiful Bahamas. The layout is straightforward. It's a resort course where normal humans with a bit of dough can knock some balls before the boat leaves. That's what tee boxes are for, as these 18 holes could take quite a while for us amateurs.

The average length of a PGA Tour course is 7,200 yards, and the Albany Course easily busts that at 7,499. I'm not too worried about golfers off the tee, as approach appears to be the more significant statistic this week.

This is a coastal course, so we can expect some breezy conditions, particularly over the weekend. The most significant hazards outside the wind will be the 30-foot-high sand dunes.

Hero World Challenge Betting Picks

Scottie Scheffler: +260

Every since Scheffler went on his big run this year, his betting odds to win have shrunk to ridiculous proportions. Or have they?

His current betting line of (+260) carries an implied probability of 27.8%. Compare that with Scheffler's average finishing position of 1.67. Mathematically, it makes sense. Let me tell you a secret about betting on this guy. The sportsbooks don't want you to do it.

Justin Thomas: +900

Let's do the same calculation with Thomas here. He has a ton of excellent course history. Over his previous six starts, he has finished 11th, 12th, 5th, 5th, 5th, and 3rd for an average of 6.8. The implied probability of his betting odds is just 10%, so Thomas certainly carries value.

Thomas became a father for the first time just weeks ago, but he hasn't been off duty for as long as Scheffler. JT finished 5th at the ZOZO Championship in late October, after which his child was born. I'm not sure about golfers, but a fighter's performance skyrockets after they become a father. Becoming a mother is a different conversation, as fading a postpartum mother is nearly a flawless play… but I digress.

I love the 9-1 on Thomas here. He's been knocking on the clubhouse door for a while now.

Akshay Bhatia: +2500

Even though Akshay Bhatia isn't a big name, I was still quite surprised to see him this far down the betting board. The 22-year-old American didn't play in the FedEx Cup Fall but found success this month on the DP Tour.

If this guy can avoid being blown away by the 15 MPH gusts on Sunday, he has the talent to close it out. Listed at 6'1" and 130 pounds, Bhatia's technique has to be good, because he isn't muscling much. He still doesn't have my dad beat when he joined the Army at 6'4" 130, though.

Bhatia has the perfect style for this course, and he's already snatched two PGA Tour wins before his 23rd birthday. He has time for at least one more. At 25-1, I'll take a flyer on the kid from SoCal.

Hero World Challenge Prop Bet

Justin Thomas Top 5 Finish: +150

Remember the math we did above for Thomas's betting odds to win? Well, the results apply even better in this spot. He has yet to finish outside the top 5 in his previous four tries, and the field this year is lighter than usual.

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