2024-25 Heisman Trophy Predictions with Betting Odds
![Heisman Trophy predictions Drew Allar Penn State Nittany Lions](http://www.docsports.com/images/lib/orig/heisman-trophy-predictions-drew-allar-penn-state-nittany-lions.jpeg)
Now that the start of the 2024 college football season is officially under triple digit days, it's time to start ramping up the hype. There was quite a bit of movement in the transfer portal, and four of the Top 10 favorites in terms of odds will be dressing in new uniforms this fall. It’s never too early to check out the futures and offer some 2024-25 Heisman Trophy predictions.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Heisman Handicapping Angles
At this time, I'd like to make a public service announcement. Can we please rename the Heisman Trophy to the Best Quarterback Award and stop the farce of letting other position players think they actually have a chance of winning? Of the 89 winners, 36 (40.4%) were QBs. However, in the 21st century, 19 of the 24 winners were signal callers. While I'm not calling for a drought of QBs like the one from 1971 to 1984, I find it hard to believe that in the 2000s, the best player in college football was a quarterback 79.2% of the time.
When looking at the top 25 players with the lowest odds to win the 2024 Heisman, only one is a non-QB: Colorado's Travis Hunter. It's disappointing that Heisman voters continue to be so obtuse (thank you, Andy Dufresne) in their evaluation of college talent. Thank you for allowing me to mount my virtual soapbox. We now return to our scheduled article.
However, from a handicapping perspective, we should thank these voters for their lack of foresight and vision. By being able to ignore approximately 96% of the potential players, we can considerably reduce our research.
Early Favorites
Here's a look at some of the front-runners and some in-depth analysis. Just so there is no confusion, every one of these players listed is a quarterback.
Carson Beck- Georgia +750
Beck is the prohibitive favorite entering the season for many reasons. First, he had a phenomenal season last year, throwing for 3,941 yards (3rd in the nation) at a 72.4% clip (4th in the nation). He's the returning leader of both of those categories. Second, he plays for a team that will almost undoubtedly be in the College Football Playoff. Third, playing in the SEC is similar to spotting an opponent 3 points in a pick-up game of basketball. It's not insurmountable (see Caleb Williams), but four out of the last five winners have hailed from the conference. Georgia is tested straight out of the gate in the Aflac Kickoff Game against Clemson. He'll also have major tests on September 28 in Alabama and October 19 in Texas. If you think the rest of the field is "a Loser baby" (fans of the 90s grunge scene will get that reference), this is the time to jump on the Beck bandwagon, because these odds are going to shrink significantly after the first weekend.
Dillon Gabriel- Oregon +1000
Gabriel will be playing for his third different team in his college career, having played at UCF for 3 years before moving on to Oklahoma for the past 2 seasons. He is an incredibly talented QB, racking up 14,865 yards, which is good enough for 8th-most in NCAA history. His latest transfer to Oregon is an interesting choice, as he'll be learning a new system as the Ducks enter the Big Ten this year. There will be a lot of hype around Gabriel, but the move to the Big Ten could be a difficult one for the Ducks. Their opponents' combined winning percentage from last season was 101-57, making this 63.9% foe winning percentage the 5th-hardest schedule in the nation. The average ranking of the defenses they faced last year was 90.3, compared to the 46.9 they'll face this season. Given the step up in competition, and learning a whole new system, you can fade Gabriel with confidence and focus your attention elsewhere.
Quinn Ewers- Texas +900
I'm not going to lie, I thought we would be talking about Arch Manning having the 2nd-lowest odds on the board. The fact that Ewers is still here tells you how talented this young man is. He completed 69.0% of his passes for 3,479 yards, good enough to be ranked 10th and 15th, respectively. Ewers was the first non-SEC QB to defeat Alabama at home since Louisana-Monroe did it back in 2007, Nick Saban's first year at the helm of the Crimson Tide. Their first schedule in the SEC has been blessed, as they get Georgia, Mississippi State, Florida, and Kentucky at home, only having to travel to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, while missing Alabama completely. While do have to make a trip to Ann Arbor to take on the reigning National Champion Michigan Wolverines, that squad will be a shadow of its championship squad. Their opponent's combined winning percentage is 84-69, for a 54.6% winning percentage and a ranking as the 49th-hardest schedule. Ewers's Heisman campaign revolves around the middle of October when they play Oklahoma on October 12 and Georgia the following weekend.
Long Shot
Drew Allar- Penn State +4000
Allar led the Nittany Lions to their second consecutive 10-win season, throwing for 25 TDs and just 2 interceptions in his first full season as the starting signal caller. Yet most of the Penn State fans and all the PSU haters look at last season as a failure. He completed only 59.9% of his passes, and the 6.8 yards/attempt was absurdly low. In Allar's defense, however, he was burdened with a receiving corps that would have been covered by some of the great high school programs in the nation. The offense was in complete disarray, with the now-departed offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and head coach James Franklin calling plays out of different playbooks. Before they lost in the Peach Bowl to Ole Miss, the first move Franklin made was to bring in Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who helped guide the Jayhawks to 446.1 yards per game, almost 50 yards better than Penn State's 399.1 ypg. Then they signed former 5-star wide receiver Julian Fleming from Big Ten rival Ohio State. With an offensive line that looks to be more consistent, new coaching, and an upgrade in the pass-catching department, expectations are sky-high for Allar and the Nittany Lions. He'll be able to stake his claim to the Heisman in a 5-week stretch when Penn State hosts UCLA, travels to USC and Wisconsin, and then comes home to Ohio State and Washington. If the Lions can go 4-1 in that time (or better) and he looks capable, Allar could be visiting the Downtown Athletic Club in December. Getting a QB at +4000 that will most likely be playing in the first 12-team College Football Playoff is a helluva bargain.
Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- 53rd-Year Anniversary - Football Picks Special
- 2024-25 Heisman Trophy Predictions with Betting Odds
- 2024 College Football National Championship Futures Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
- College Football Totals Picks Bowl Games: Over or Under Predictions for This Week
- College Bowl Game Free Picks for Games from Dec. 29-Jan. 1
- College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for Armed Forces Bowl featuring James Madison vs. Air Force
- College Football Totals Picks Bowl Games: Over or Under Predictions for This Week
- College Bowl Game Free Picks for Games from Dec. 19-Dec 26
- Expert Bowl Game Handicapping: Geographical Advantages
- Expert Bowl Game Handicapping: Player and Coaching Uncertainty