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Handicapping the Super Bowl Quarterbacks and Best Bets for Props

by Matt Zitt - 2/7/2024

Handicapping the Super Bowl quarterbacks Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers

We have a marquee matchup on our hands this Sunday for Super Bowl 58 as the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers. Patrick Mahomes has already established himself among one of the best that has ever chucked the pigskin, and Brock Purdy will try and get the 49ers over the Super Bowl hump after the team fell short in 2020 against the Chiefs. Both quarterbacks have had stellar 2023-24 seasons and have plenty of weapons on the offensive side of the ball to put up points in bunches. This should be another classic SB that could come down to one final play by one of these two QBs.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

So far, in Mahomes’ illustrious career, he has won almost 78% of his games. To put that in perspective, only one quarterback since 1950 has a better win percentage than Mahomes in at least 30 starts. That would be Otto Graham at 78.8% in 78 starts. Everyone knows the Chiefs quarterback is a proven winner straight up. When it comes to covering the spread, he drops down closer to 50% of the time. In his 108 career starts, including the playoffs, he is 60-50-3 against the spread, which computes to 55% of the time. When it comes to making money, a consistent $100 spread bettor would be up $670 backing the Chiefs in the Mahomes-era.

Bettors must like the spot they are in going off history. Mahomes is 3-0 SU against the 49ers in his career, 3-0 SU as a playoff underdog, and 4-0 SU at Allegiant Stadium. His stats at Allegiant Stadium are nothing to shy away from. He is 114-for-155 (74%) for 1,256 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception. Mahomes has played in four neutral-site games in his career, two SBs and two international games. He is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.8 points per game. Kansas City has scored at least 21 points in all four of those contests. He has also performed exceptionally well against the 49ers in his career. In three games, he has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions, thrown for 341 yards per game, and has 36 rushing yards with a touchdown.

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes OVER 260.5 passing yards (-115)

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

We go from the new GOAT in Mahomes to Mr. Irrelevant in Brock Purdy. His story is a fascinating adventure. NFL Scouts repeatedly said Purdy did not have what it takes to succeed on the NFL level. Pre-draft evaluations said he did not test well, lacked the strength and arm to be a starter. Boy, were they wrong. Mr. Irrelevant has led the 49ers back to the Super Bowl and could be the second-youngest quarterback to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. He has not just proved his doubters wrong; he was one of the most efficient QBs throughout the entire league.

Purdy finished the regular season with 31 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He completed 308-of-444 passes for 4,280 yards and a completion percentage of 69.4%. In the playoffs, he has averaged 259.5 yards per game and has thrown two touchdowns to one interception. Purdy is no stranger to using his legs if he must, scampering for 62 yards in two playoff games. In the regular season, he scored two rushing touchdowns. His stats under pressure are also impressive:

Purdy with a clean pocket – 125.4 passer rating (first), 10.4 yards per attempt (first), 76.7% completion rate (second)

Purdy under pressure – 90.2 passer rating (fifth), 8.2 yards per attempt (third), 55.8% completion rate (second)

Obviously, there is a little drop off under pressure, which should be expected from any QB, but those numbers are still elite. He also ranks second in the NFL in completed air yards per attempt, which measures the number of yards the ball traveled past the line of scrimmage before being completed. Purdy was also the NFL’s best deep ball passer, according to Pro Football Focus, with a 99.9 grade and 11 touchdowns to one pick.

Best Bet: Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115)

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