Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Handicapping the Super Bowl Quarterbacks and Best Bets for Props

by Mike Allen - 2/6/2025

Handicapping the Super Bowl quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl LIX is now just days away. The betting is beginning to pick up, and it’s only getting faster the closer we get to game time. The betting line for the game has held steady at (-1.5) for the Kansas City Chiefs. I heard rumblings about it maybe moving up to 2.5 or even 3 in favor of KC, but no.

Maybe by kickoff on Sunday night, we may see it touch two points. In the case that you’re backing the Chiefs, don’t you dare take them to cover the spread. This game has 1-point win written all over it.

If you like Philly, then why not wait until you can get the (+2)? I don't see the betting odds trending in the Eagles' direction.

Today, I want us to focus on the two opposing starting quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is the much better passer between the two. However, we can’t forget that he threw for 122 fewer yards just two years ago when these two met in the Super Bowl.

These two teams are much different now, with KC limited at running back, along with a weaker offensive line. Philly obviously has a much stronger backfield on offense and one of the best o-lines we’ve seen in the past few decades.

When handicapping quarterbacks for the Super Bowl, we can follow along with the narrative or use the public’s “prowess” against them to try and hit a plus-money bet.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts: -123

I've done quite a bit of research, and this is the Mahomes prop bet I'm hearing about more than any other. Playoff Mahomes runs the ball much more than the regular season version.

I heard about it so much that I’m surprised we haven’t seen it jump up to 6.5 or at least juice up to the (-140) range. It may still, though, so don’t waste any time with this one. The Eagles have one of, if not the, stingiest secondaries in the league. Mahomes has 18 rushes in his two playoff games. I don’t see why he doesn’t get to 6 in Super Bowl LIX.

Pick: Mahomes Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts: -123

Mahomes Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes: +147

This will likely be the best defense the Chiefs have faced in a Super Bowl, and Mahomes has 43 touchdown passes in 20 games. I love the value here with the big plus money. Sometimes, good things come to those who wait. The previous prop is too juicy, but the squeeze could very well be worth it for the Chiefs to struggle in the red zone.

Pick: Mahomes Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes: +147

Jalen Hurts, Quarterback Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts Over 27.5 Pass Attempts: -115

The Kansas City Chiefs loaded the box against Philly two years ago. Therefore, with a 2,000-yard rusher in the backfield, why wouldn’t they do it now? If you don’t believe me, just ask the oddsmakers. Saquon Barkley’s rushing yard over/under total is set at just 118.5, which is much lower than his season average.

Chiefs haters nationwide would love nothing more than to see Philly just hand the ball off to Barkley and let him destroy KC. Most experts favor the under with Barkley, and I imagine the public, who gets their bets in closer to kickoff, will be betting his over.

We already mentioned that Hurts threw it 38 times in the big game two years ago. I love the value here for him to likely get to 30+ pass attempts.

Pick: Hurts Over 27.5 Pass Attempts: -115

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -110

You may not realize it, but even with Barkley rushing for more than 2,000 yards in the regular season and another 442 in three postseason games, Hurts matched his total of 18 rushing scores. On top of that, the QB only really played a total of 17 games because of his very early exit against the Commanders in Week 16.

You can easily do the math and see why Jalen Hurts is the most popular anytime scorer prop bet on the market for Super Bowl LIX. The tush push, as you know, is always the Eagles’ go-to in short-yardage situations.

Here's another thing about Philly this year. They have very much been a straightforward team on offense. The Eagles haven't run many different plays, especially in the running game. You might see more read options from Hurts and Barkley. However, I see them more, for the most part, sticking to what got them to the big game in the first place. Get this bet in sooner than later, as the price will likely increase as we get closer to kickoff.

Pick: Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -110

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Super Bowl Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers