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Handicapping Super Bowl Injuries for 2025

by Joey House - 2/6/2025

Handicapping Super Bowl injuries Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Handicapping injuries for big games like the Super Bowl has become a dual-edged sword with the increased detailed data. The difficulty has decreased in one sense, as everyone now has access to the same rich sources of information—real-time injury reports, practice statuses, and expert medical analyses—that were once the domain of a select few. This transparency means that the advantage once held by the boys with inside knowledge has largely vanished; the same injury data you're analyzing is available to every virtually other handicapper. However, this universal access also highlights the challenge of finding the key insights from this flood of information. With every bettor potentially working from the same dataset, the ability to interpret how each piece of injury information affects game strategy and player performance becomes the new frontier in gaining an edge in Super Bowl betting.

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How Injuries Shape Strategy and Odds

Injuries can significantly alter Super Bowl 59 in different ways. Directly, an injury impacts a player's performance, like a running back who has a tweaked hamstring and loses some of his breakaway speed. Strategically, coaches may have to adapt their game plans; an injured quarterback might force a shift towards a more run-heavy offense, limit his mobility or his ability to rollout, forcing a mobile QB into becoming a pocket QB, which throws small changes in everything from line blocking coverage to timing of receivers' routes. Losing a starting defensive back on defense may force a defensive coordinator to change their standard pass defense from man to zone coverage to isolate or hide a weaker defender.

The impact of injuries also manifests in how betting lines move. When news of an injury breaks, the betting market often reacts immediately, sometimes overreacting or underreacting to the news or not fully understanding the scope of significance of the injury. These line movements can provide opportunities for bettors with different assessments of the injury's impact. Suppose the public sentiment overly adjusts the line based on injury news. In that case, a savvy bettor might find value in betting against the trend, especially if they believe the market has misjudged the actual effect of the player's condition on the game. This analysis requires not just knowledge of the injury but also an understanding of how the market interprets and reacts to such information.

Philadelphia Eagles Injury Report

The first official injury report for Super Bowl 59 was released on Wednesday for the Philadelphia Eagles. Of the ten players listed, six were full participants in practice, while the following players saw limited practice time:

Jalen Carter (DT): Illness

Kenny Gainwell (RB): Concussion/knee

Brandon Graham (DT): Elbow

DeVonta Smith (WR): Hamstring

Two key Eagles not listed above are center Cam Jurgens and guard Landon Dickerson. Dickerson, Philly's starting left guard, was forced to start the NFC Championship game at center when Jurgens was benched with back illness. However, when Dickerson suffered a knee injury, Jurgens was forced into the game at halftime. Both are slated to start in their respective positions and have helped pave the for an Eagles' ground game that is second in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 186.6 yards/game.

Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report

Kansas City looked in good health, as only three players were listed in their first injury report released in the initial days following their AFC Championship win over Buffalo. Starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor was listed with a knee injury but was fully practice-eligible. Wide receiver Skyy Moore is slated to be activated off the injured reserve list from an abdomen injury and could help provide depth to a weakened wide receiving corps.

However, fans and bettors are keenly watching the last name on this shortlist. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes injured his ankle late in the season and, along with many of the Chiefs' starters, sat out the last game of the regular season against Denver. He returned for Kansas City's first playoff game seemingly fully healed, as he hasn't missed a snap and even rushed for two touchdowns for the first time in his NFL career against the Bills.

Strategizing Super Bowl 59 Bets: Utilizing Injury Reports

So far, pregame injuries have had little effect on line movement for Super Bowl 59. Even though Philadelphia's starting offensive line was in flux in the NFC Championship game, they still managed to rush for 230 yards and a record seven touchdowns. While these injuries may not be affecting wagering right now, being cognizant of and monitoring them could pay significant dividends from in-game betting. Likewise, with Mahomes's ankle injury, if his mobility seems to be reduced, that could be a sign that these lingering issues are flaring up.

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