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Handicapping Super Bowl Injuries

by Mike Allen - 2/8/2024

Handicapping Super Bowl injuries Willie Gay Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl LVIII is now just a few days away. Everybody from your wife to the sharpest of shark bettors living in Las Vegas is busy handicapping the game. It's really not an easy one to handicap, if you ask me.

NFL games in general are very difficult to handicap because of a multitude of reasons, one of which being the injury report. You only have to watch about one quarter of pro football to understand that this collision sport causes some of the most devastating and horrific injuries on a consistent basis than any other in the world.

Many times, throughout the regular season and in the playoffs as well, handicappers have had to wait until almost game time to know whether a star player like a quarterback would be playing or not.

I get it. These coaches don't want the other team to be able to prepare for one guy. They want to make them prepare for two. That's just the nature of this beast we call NFL betting.

If there ever were a game, though, that injuries mattered the least, it would have to be the Super Bowl.

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It’s the Final Game of the Year

This is probably the first thing that comes to mind because we have been in the postseason for a few weeks now. Teams are playing like it’s do or die. It’s still more grave, though, in my opinion, for the big game.

It’s the Most Important Game of the Year

It should go without saying that the Super Bowl is the most important game of the year, but we have to touch on this. Just think about what is on the line here. How much money does this sport generate?

The league’s biggest superstars are playing in this game. Players are going to be in some pain for some time as they either enjoy the fruits of victory or their souls dive into the depths of depression.

Most of you have seen the movie “Any Given Sunday”. Yes, it was a dramatic film, but it wasn’t at all an exaggeration. If anything, the movie only scratched the surface. There is a dark side to what players are ingesting or injected with before during and after a professional football game.

The Teams are Coming Off of 2 Weeks of Rest

Let’s come out of that dark place into some positivity. These players are also playing as if they had a bye week. I can’t begin to imagine how much an extra 7 days off helps these athletes…physically.

I am not sure what all that time to think has to do with performance. I guess it’s up to the individual athlete. That isn’t something we can quantify. And even though we can see some injuries on paper right now, that doesn’t mean that the player could potentially play better in the big game with an injury because they are so sauced up.

However, we do have some injuries to key players for Super Bowl LVIII that we need to talk about.

Super Bowl LV III Key Injuries

San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel has been the X-factor for the San Francisco 49ers all season long. He loves to run people over. However, with a sprained AC joint, that is going to prove difficult but more so painful.

He has been playing through it, however. And with the two weeks off, I would expect Samuel to be at or near his best.

Dre Greenlaw (LB)

Dre Greenlaw is dealing with Achilles Tendonitis. That’s an important tendon down there, but he has been limited in practice keeping the inflammation down.

He is a professional, and I don’t think we can let his limited practice change our handicapping.

Ambry Thomas (CB)

The cornerback is dealing with a low ankle sprain. He may be slowed a bit in the game, but again, this is 2024. They have some incredible technologies and medicines available, especially in the biggest sporting event of the year.

Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Thuney (LG)

This is the injury that everybody is talking about. All of the analytics are telling Andy Reid he had better find a way to get Joe Thuney on the field for Super Bowl LVIII. He is one of the best pass protectors in the league, and his potential replacement consistently underperforms.

Imagine having a torn pec, though, and having to lock up with ferocious defensive tackles, some of the freakiest athletes on the field. There comes a point where it won’t be about playing through the pain. If he is still this doubtful to play, I don’t think we will see him out there and I don’t think he would be able to help his team win.

Charles Omenihu (DE)

This was devastating for Kansas City. Charles Omenihu tore his ACL in the AFC title game against the Ravens. He is certainly not playing and likely won’t suit up for a while.

Willie Gay (LB)

An integral part of the Kansas City defense, Willie Gay is a fast linebacker who flies around the field. They will need him on Sunday. The good news is that he got his 2 weeks off and hopefully for him and the Chiefs’ faithful, the neck spasms discontinue.

Isaiah Pacheco (RB)

He looked good in the AFC Championship but he is still dealing with a toe injury. It isn’t anything new, so I wouldn’t let it affect the handicapping.

Jerick McKinnon (RB)

Jerick McKinnon has been on the IR since mid-December when he broke his hip and suffered a sports hernia. Well, here it is early February and his team has cleared him to practice.

It's the hernia that takes longer to heal than the fractured pelvis. The head coach has said that the chances of his return are slim. If he were probable to play, then I could see it affecting our handicapping, but the Chiefs have Pacheco and he can't touch the ball enough.

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