Grande Odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/29/2025

In sports, iconic curses, such as the Boston Red Sox's "Curse of the Bambino," which lingered for 86 years, or the Chicago Cubs' "Curse of the Billy Goat," which delayed a World Series win for 108 years, create enduring tales of challenge, heartache, and victory. In horse racing, a daunting obstacle emerged when Apollo claimed the 8th Kentucky Derby in 1882 without racing as a two-year-old, starting the "Curse of Apollo," a barrier breached only once since Justify's 2018 Derby win, which kicked off his Triple Crown run. While the Red Sox broke their curse with three championships since 2003, the Cubs have struggled since their 2016 World Series victory. Now, Grande, talented but unraced as a 2-year-old, steps into the 151st Kentucky Derby to show Justify's success was no anomaly and to put an end, once and for all, to the "Curse of Apollo."

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Breeding: Grande, a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, inherits exceptional stamina from a sire who won the Preakness (G1), placed second in the Belmont (G1), and third in the Kentucky Derby, and later triumphed in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Dubai World Cup (G1), and two Jockey Club Gold Cups (G1), passing on his classic endurance to progeny like Belmont winner Palace Malice, Preakness winner Exaggerator, and Grade 1 1 1/4-mile dirt winners Vino Rosso, Malathaat, and Nest, with Curlin also siring this year's Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism. Grande's dam, Journey Home, a War Front daughter out of A.P. Indy mare Soul Search, won the one-mile Jimmy Durante (G3) on turf and produced seven-furlong stakes winner Ticker Tape Home, while War Front, a versatile sire of Grade 1 winners across distances and surfaces including Preakness winner War of Will, adds speed, and Soul Search, who placed in the Spinster (G1) and Personal Ensign (G1), reinforces stamina from A.P. Indy, a Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic winner. Despite an Equineline Pedigree grade of D, Grande's pedigree—blending Curlin's and A.P. Indy's endurance with War Front's speed—suits the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, with his racing record indicating he's a stayer, unlike Curlin's occasional sprinters like Cody's Wish or Elite Power.

Trainer: Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. These victories tie him with three other trainers for the fourth-most Derby wins in history, and he aims to break that tie with Grande. Pletcher ranks fifth in earnings this year, having surpassed $4.6 million. He boasts an extensive Kentucky Derby history, with 64 horses entered, the most in the event's history, and he holds the record for the most Eclipse Trainer of the Year Awards, with eight.

Jockey: John R. Velazquez has been one of the most consistent jockeys in North America for a quarter of a century. He has been among the top 10 in yearly earnings since 2000, leading in 2004 and 2005. With a current ranking of 17th, 2025 is considered an off-year for the two-time Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Jockey. The 54-year-old jockey from Puerto Rico has over 6,600 wins in North America. He has the best Derby history of the 2025 field, with three wins (2011- Animal Kingdom, 2017- Always Dreaming, 2020- Authentic) and two second-place finishes in his 26 starts in the "Run for the Roses." Velazquez was the mount for Grande's two victories but could not ride him at the Wood Memorial (G2) due to a scheduling conflict. He takes the reins at Churchill, giving Grande a significant advantage over the field.

Prior experience: Despite not racing as a 2-year-old, Grande made a grand entrance. He won his first time in a one-mile Maiden Special Weight at Gulf Park and then again six weeks later, stretching out to 1 1/8 miles Allowance. Sent off as the 4-1 third choice in the Wood Memorial behind favorite Captain Cook and eventual winner Rodriguez, Grande broke cleanly but struggled to find a strong position into the clubhouse turn. Just 1.5 lengths behind pace-setter Rodriguez early, he was forced wide and had to ease back, trailing by nearly 7 lengths on the backstretch. As Rodriguez slowed the pace, Grande steadily closed to within a length of the leader on the far turn. However, his three-to-four-wide rally through the turn drained his energy, and he faded late as Rodriguez pulled away to win.

Odds, Analysis, and Predictions: 20-to-1. Equinline's rating notwithstanding, Grande's breeding puts him in good standing for the distance he'll encounter at Churchill Downs, and stamina shouldn't be an issue as he is stretched to 1 1/4 for the first time in his short career. What will scare the pundits and bettors is the lack of experience in the aforementioned short career. He has yet to crack 100 on the Beyer scale but, again, has only had three tries at it. However, Grande has improved his speed each time out, and getting the legendary Velazquez back makes Grande an intriguing and possibly quite profitable order in the 151st Kentucky Derby.

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Start:	April 29, 2025 @ 10:10 PM
Expert:	August Young
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