Goody's Cool Orange 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 03/28/2008
Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have won a combined eight of the last 10 races at Martinsville will try to win the Grandfather Clock and get back in victory lane for this first time this year on Sunday, at 2 p.m. the Goody's Cool Orange 500.
It has been 60 years since NASCAR first started turning left, and while historic tracks have come and go Martinsville remains the only original track left from the 1948 circuit. Martinsville features the best that short-track racing has to offer. This is where iconic figures like Dale Earnhardt, Lee and Kyle Petty, Cale Yarborough and Darrell Waltrip made their bones.
Racing fans have harkened Martinsville to historic sports venues like the old Boston Garden, Tiger Stadium or Fenway Park. It is old, decrepit, and dear in the hearts of the sports' die-hards. If you like watching bumper-bumping, side-by-side, nail-biting action where you have to wait until the last lap to find out who wins this is your type of race. One thing is for sure that anything is possible on a short track.
Who will win the Goody's Cool Orange 500?
At Bristol Motor Speedway two weeks ago Stewart had all but won the Food City 500. He led for 267 laps until Kevin Harvick took out our pick with two laps to go in the race. Stewart finished in 14th place and, for the third consecutive year, led the most laps at Bristol but failed to win.
Picking any HMS driver to win this year has been an exercise in futility, but odds suggest that at some point HMS will figure out what exactly has been ailing the once dominant NASCAR team and bring them back into prominence. What better place for HMS than at the perfect paperclip, Martinsville Motor Speedway.
Everyone is looking at HMS' Gordon or Johnson to win at Martinsville this year to get their season back on track. The duo of Gordon and Johnson won the past six of seven races, and Johnson has won the past four races at Martinsville with Tony Stewart being the only driver to win since 2004.
While I agree Martinsville is HMS's race to lose. I like another HMS driver to win this race. That's right; I think Earnhardt, Jr has a great shot on Sunday. In the past Junior has raced very well at Martinsville and has a string of seven top five races in the past 16. He's done well due to his short track pedigree, but in the past has been denied by HMS. However, now with team Hendrick on his side he'll be able to overcome that obstacle. You could say that winning at Martinsville is in his blood.
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (9/1)
Goody's Cool Orange 500 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Goody's Cool Orange 500 but here are a few picks I like to cash on Sunday. Two weeks ago my lone match-up cashed as Kevin Harvick not only beat out Kurt Busch outright, but he almost won the race but finished second to Jeff Burton in a green-white-checkered finish as a $1.30 dog. Over the wall I am 5-5 with my NASCAR match-ups to the tune of -1.75 units. This makes two straight weeks that our Square Tire Picks have not only cashed but finished the race in the top two spots.
Long Odds Value Pick
In the last race our long odds pick, Jamie McMurray (50/1), finished dead last in the Food City 500. This week at Martinsville we are going to look at a driver with a realistic shot of winning the race while offering good odds short money. I like the way Rousch Fenway Racing's Greg Biffle raced at Bristol two weeks ago as he finished the race in fourth place. As a result he is a mere 30 points behind Kyle Busch in the cup standings and should have another solid outing on Sunday.
Pick! Greg Biffle (20/1)
Square Tire Pick
Carl Edwards (+1.30)/Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-1.60)
Carl Edwards has had an up-and-down year after five races on the circuit, but he has also notched two wins to Junior's zero. Last two races he had engine failure and finished 42nd while two weeks ago he finished 16th at Bristol and is now 16th place in the standings. Junior, who replaced current point's leader Kyle Busch, is currently in fifth place in the standings and has been a model of consistency, and has been the best driver at HMS whose stable includes two-time defending Sprint Cup Champion Johnson, all he has to do this season is to win for his new team. While Edwards has had some early success this year his troubles at Martinsville are notorious. His average finish is 20.6 while on a short track his average finish is 18.6. Edwards, in the No. 99 car, has never recorded a win, a top-five or top 10 finish at the perfect paperclip. Take into account that Edwards' regular crew chief Bob Osborne is serving a six-race suspension all signs point to another poor showing at Martinsville for Carl Edwards.
Pick! Earnhardt, Jr (-1.60)
*Sprint Cup Series - Goody's Cool Orange 500 Odds
Sun, Mar 30th (2.00pm EST) Martinsville Motor Speedway
Aric Almirola 150/1
Bill Elliott 200/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Casey Mears 50/1
Clint Bowyer 16/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
Dario Franchitti 150/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
David Reutimann 150/1
Denny Hamlin 9/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 5/1
Jeremy Mayfield 200/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Joe Nemechek 150/1
John Andretti 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Ken Schrader 200/1
Kevin Harvick 11/1
Kurt Busch 16/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael McDowell 150/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Skinner 150/1
Patrick Carpentier 150/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 16/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Tony Raines 200/1
Tony Stewart 7/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog