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2024-25 Golden State Warriors Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/2/2024

Golden State Warriors predictions Stephen Curry

It is a new era of basketball for the Golden State Warriors as their trio of superstars enters the twilight of their careers. Steph Curry still has plenty to contribute for the Warriors. However. will the departure of Klay Thompson result in the Warriors falling even further out of playoff contention?

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Golden State Warriors Offseason Recap

For the first time in their respective careers, the Splash Brothers will not be suiting up together on an NBA court. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were both drafted by the Golden State Warriors in 2009 and 2011, respectively, and have played every single minute of their NBA careers together. Their partnership in the backcourt earned them the nickname. Thompson and Curry were phenomenal, winning four championships over their careers. However, Thompson was traded to the Dallas Mavericks in the offseason, leaving the backcourt vacant for the first time in a decade. 

Thompson was a crucial member of the Golden State Warriors championship runs, as his microwave scoring could flip the game on its head in an instant. Thompson broke numerous NBA records during his time with the Warriors. This includes his 37 points in a single quarter in 2015, a playoff record of 11 three pointers in Game 6 of the WCF in 2016, and his career high of 60 points in just 29 minutes of action in 2017. 

Chris Paul also departed from the Golden State Warriors this offseason. Paul was ineffective during his time with the Warriors, but his veteran presence in the locker room went a long way in shaping the future of this franchise. 

The Warriors weren’t without fresh arrivals, as they bolstered their offense after Thompson and Paul left. The biggest name coming to Golden State is Buddy Hield from the Kings. Hield is a truly lethal three-point shooter, scoring on exactly 40% of his triples across his 8-year career. Considering his volume of 7.6 attempts per game in his career, the efficiency Hield scores with could make him the perfect replacement for Thompson. He hasn’t really been slowing down with age, as his style of basketball tends to still be effective in the twilight of careers. 

The Warriors also picked up Kyle Anderson from the Timberwolves, who is an effective 3-and-D role player. There is no doubt the Warriors got slightly worse. However, after injuries disrupted their campaign last year, they are hopeful the offseason changes will be the right ones for this franchise’s future. 

Golden State Warriors Season Expectations

It’s always difficult to reach the expectations following championship seasons. The Warriors have won four of the last 10 NBA championships, with their most recent one coming back in 2022. With a track record like that, anything short of another ring is seen as a failure. Steph Curry just signed a contract extension in the offseason, signifying the Warriors still intend to compete for a championship in the coming years. Draymond Green’s inability to control his temper on and off the court has been an issue for this team. Additionally, a majority of their rising prospects have been unable to match lofty expectations for the Warriors. Hield will slide in nicely next to Curry, giving the Warriors one of the most exhilarating backcourts in the league. However, Hield is a liability defensively, and the Warriors lack the size inside to stop big and strong teams. Considering the type of career 34-year-old Green has had, it’s hard to see him being effective in the 5 position this season. 

Golden State Warriors Schedule Breakdown

The Warriors have the second most national televised broadcasts, with nearly half their games being played across the nation (36). They have a gentle start to the year, with the Trail Blazers and Jazz being their first two opponents. They have a few daunting road trips at the tail end of the season, with a trio of 5, 6, and 7, game road trips in the final two months of the season. 

Golden State Warriors Odds

The Warriors have an Over/Under of 43.5 wins this season and are expected to be on the cusp of a playoff spot. They have even -110 odds to make or miss the playoffs, and +3500 odds to win the fifth championship of Curry’s career. The 43.5 win total is in line with their 46-36 and 44-38 seasons in the last two years, but it’s hard to see them replicating that here. Golden State’s offense has been able to overshadow their interior defensive liabilities for years. Draymond Green can’t be expected to play 30 minutes a game for 82 games this season at center, leaving the Warriors with few other options. 

In the NBA Cup, it takes just a few good showings to make a deep run in the tournament. However, the Warriors find themselves in a very difficult West Group C. They are projected to finish dead last and have +550 odds to top a group featuring the Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies. There are no easy wins in the tournament for Golden State, and they are unlikely to reach the knockout stages, let alone come close to cashing a +3500 ticket on their NBA Cup victory. 

2024-25 Golden State Warriors Season Predictions and Best Bets

In general, I will be fading the Golden State Warriors this season. Hield is probably an equivalent replacement for Thompson, but the reality is their core is aging without getting any better. Curry and Green’s best days are behind them, and it’s becoming a reality that Andrew Wiggins will never develop into a superstar. They were able to miraculously lead the league in rebounds despite being the shortest team in the league last season. That trend is simply unsustainable, and the Warriors will heavily regress this season. An often injured, undersized, ill-tempered, aging center is not the cornerstone for a deep playoff run. The Warriors will fall short of expectations and will be forced to watch the postseason festivities from their sofas. 

Top Pick: Golden State Warriors to Miss the Playoffs -110

Pick: Golden State Warriors Under 43.5 Wins

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