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Free Super Bowl Props Predictions for 2024

by Joey House - 2/9/2024

Free Super Bowl props predictions Deebo Samuel San Francisco 49ers

What started out as a way to entice fans and casual bettors to wager on the Super Bowl, the then-director of Caesar's Sportsbook Art Manteris created the first prop bet for Super Bowl XX in 1986. The New England Patriots were squaring off with the legendary 1985 Chicago Bears team. The Bears' roster was filled with future Hall of Famers, but it was the less-than-svelte 350-plus pound rookie defensive tackle William "The Refrigerator" Perry who was getting much of the limelight from his three rushing touchdowns during the regular season.

Manderis set the initial odds to 20:1 (+2000) that the Fridge would score a touchdown. Sportsbooks throughout Las Vegas caught wind of the new wagers and the line went from 20:1 all the way to 2:1. The backers who got in their "Yes" wager early were tickled to death when Perry rumbled into the endzone in the 3rd-quarter on Chicago's way to routing the Patriots, 46-10. Even though Caesars lost over $100,000 on Perry's touchdown, the prop craze had begun. Nearly 40 years after that GIGANTIC touchdown, prop bets are now bigger than ever, offered not only on special games but throughout the entire season. One Vegas sportsbook estimates that prop bets make up 70% of their handle for the Super Bowl.

However, prop bets know no bigger market than the Super Bowl. Each year there are more and more different wagers conjured up. This year, you can bet on everything from before the game, will Taylor Swift's flight be televised, to after the game, will the Super Bowl MVP mention Swift (notice a trend here?), and everything in between.

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For those of you who like to make your wagers as complex as possible, oddsmakers have your back. During the 1980s, the Super Bowls were not very competitive, with only two games ending within one possession. So, when Super Bowl XXIV between the Denver Broncos and the high-powered San Francisco 49ers looked like it was going to be a blowout (the Niners were 12-point favorites), one sportsbook created this wager: Who scores more points, the Niners or the Chicago Bulls' Micheal Jordan? MJ put up a strong 39 against the New Jersey Nets but paled in comparison to the 55 points the Niners hung on John Elway's Broncos.

Here are some of the interesting cross-sports prop bets that might be worth investigating.

Deebo Samuel Total Targets vs. Vancouver Canucks Total Goals

At first glance, this seems like a slam dunk for Samuel's total targets. Vancouver does have the highest-scoring offense in the NHL this season at 3.78 goals per game. They are skating against the Washington Capitals, who are in the middle of the pack in terms of goals allowed per game (3.06). Deebo's targets, however, have been wildly inconsistent all season. In the NFC championship game, in a Herculean comeback effort, Samuel was targeted 9 times, despite having lingering effects from an injury suffered in the Divisional Round of the playoffs against Green Bay. He has averaged 6.2 targets per game over the last 11 games.

Ultimately, what seals the deal for Samuel are the odds. Even though Vancouver has the best scoring offense, and the Capitals' form is atrocious (average of 5.25 goals against in their last 4 games), the price on them is only even money (+100). If they were +120, I think the Canucks would be worth a shot, but with Samuel sitting at -130, his targets just represent the logical move...but it's closer than you might think.

PICK: Samuel's Total Targets (-130)

Patrick Mahomes 1st-Half Passing Yards +1.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder's Team Total

It feels as though the Thunder should be getting the point and a half in this one. OKC is 4th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 120.8 ppg. They'll be in the tail part of a back-to-back when they take on the Sacramento Kings and their 21st-ranked defense (average 118.1 ppg allowed). Mahomes, meanwhile, does the bulk of his passing damage in the first half, averaging 147.6 yards a game before halftime. The Thunder have scored 140 points just once this season, and 12 times through 130-139. In two meetings against the Kings, OKC has scored 123 and 98 points, respectively. It is worth noting that the Thunder's 140-point outburst was played on the second night of a back-to-back. With the price being -115 for either side AND getting the measly 1.5-yard spread, all we need is for Mahomes to be just close to his season average and we cash our second cross-sport prop.

PICK: Mahomes 1st-Half Passing Yards +1.5 (-115)

Patrick Mahomes Total Pass Attempts vs. Oscar De La Hoya Pro Wins (39)

I love this bet! De La Hoya was one of my all-time favorite boxers, and I've been yearning for a way to incorporate him into my current wagering. Now my prayers have been answered! Seriously though, this wager offers some value. The total set for Mahomes' pass attempts is 36.5, juiced to the over at -130. If you take this wager, which basically just becomes an Alt pass attempts bet, 3 more attempts get you odds of +115. Mahomes has hit the 40+ pass attempts mark eight times this season, including 41 passes in the frigid playoff win against Miami. Even in the AFC Championship Game, which was low-scoring, he tossed it 39 times. Chiefs' head coach Andy Reid is a master tactician, and I fully expect him to unleash the Chiefs' aerial arsenal. Getting plus money to beat De La Hoya's professional win total, priceless.

Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards vs. Highest Scoring NCAA Men's Basketball Team on Feb. 10

For those of you who just can't wait to gamble on the Super Bowl, this wager allows you to start a day early. There are over 150 NCAA games on Saturday, and the top-scoring team in the country, Kentucky (89.7 ppg), plays an interesting out-of-conference opponent when they host Gonzaga. The most points a NCAA team has scored this season came a few weeks ago when Samford beat VMI 134-96. The next highest total was 122. Last Saturday, on a similar slate of games, five teams scored more than 100 points, including UMBC's 114 points against Albany's 102. Now we take a look at the odds on CMC's rushing and alt-rushing yards. His normal total is set at 90.5 yards -120. His alt-total of 110+ is priced at +195 and the 120+ yard prices are +285. However, the odds for this cross-sport bet are +300 for him to outrush the highest-scoring college hoops team. Granted, it's an unknown variable at the moment. However, based on recent results, it most almost guaranteed to be less than 120 yards and most likely between 100 and 110 yards, giving us enormous value at +300.

McCaffrey has hit the century mark seven times this season, with a high of 152 (it's a good thing the 1991 Loyola Marymount team isn't playing this Saturday). Much has been said about Kansas City's defense, and not just their offensive firepower, leading the way this year, but that really just pertains to scoring and a stout passing defense. K.C. is in the bottom half of rushing yards allowed, averaging 113.2 yards per game. In the divisional round of the playoffs, Buffalo ran roughshod over the Chiefs for 182 yards on the ground, the most yards they allowed all season. 12 times they gave up 115+ yards on the ground.

Again, what makes this such an enticing wager is the massive +300 we're getting. With the Chiefs more than capable of giving up large amounts of ground and going against arguably the best running back in the league, this seems like a wager that is definitely worth the risk.

PICK: McCaffrey's Total Rushing Yards more than highest scoring NCAAB team +300

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