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Free Super Bowl Picks for 2025 Side ATS and Over Under

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/3/2025

Free Super Bowl picks side and ATS with over under Landon Dickerson Philadelphia Eagles

The Super Bowl is just days away. And with that, it is time to turn our attention to the books and start placing our bets on this year’s game. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have arrived in New Orleans ahead of this year’s Super Bowl matchup, and the festivities are on deck.

Both teams dominated their way to reach the penultimate game, with the Chiefs going 15-2 and the Eagles going 14-3. Despite being tied for a league best 15-2 record, the Chiefs ranked just 11th in point differential, finishing the season with a mere +59 mark. Twelve of their 17 games were decided by one possession, and that trend has continued into the postseason, with both victories coming at less than 10 points and just an average margin of victory of +6 points.

On the other hand, the Eagles finished the season with a +160-point differential, which ranked second in the NFL behind the Detroit Lions. Despite the difference, the Kansas City Chiefs are the betting favorites to take home their third Lombardi Trophy in as many years.

Extending on the differences of regular season performance, the postseason has also been different for both teams. In both of Kansas City’s playoff games, there have been some controversial calls that had a massive impact on the outcome of the game. Nonetheless, both games seemed to be highly contested and down to the wire.

The Eagles path has not been like that. Philadelphia has been jumping out to early leads and gained control of each game. In their game against the Rams, they got too comfortable and almost gave away the lead in the final minutes of the game, however the Eagles stout secondary sealed the deal on the Rams final drive. Instead of bringing that scare into the next game, the Eagles flat out dominated the Washington Commanders in every aspect of the game and are riding a 32-point victory into the Super Bowl.

The keys in this game will be how Patrick Mahomes handles the Eagles secondary and if the Chiefs’ defense can find an answer to the Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley running attack.

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Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds

Point Spread

Kansas City Chiefs: -1.5

Philadelphia Eagles: +1.5

The Chiefs opened as two-point favorites to take home their third consecutive Super Bowl victory. However, they have since been knocked down to just 1.5-point favorites, and the line has held firm there as we are just six days away from kickoff.

The Chiefs struggled against the spread this season. They went 7-9-1 ATS during the regular season and have gone just 1-1 in the postseason. However, Mahomes has been able to come up big when the spread is low. In his career, Mahomes is 7-0 ATS when the spread is less than three points. At 1.5, this seems to be a great sign for Chiefs fans as they look to make history. However, the Chiefs don’t have the same dominant roster as the previous teams that secured the Lombardi Trophy, and the Eagles seem to be rolling with momentum.

The Eagles were tied for fourth ATS, in the NFL, during the regular season, as they covered 11 of their 17 games. They have continued to play well ATS in the postseason, going 2-1. In the one game they didn’t cover, they held a 13-point lead with less than five minutes to go in the game. The Eagles defense has been incredible at shutting down the opposition early and squashing any chance of momentum forming. The Eagles allowed just 8.8 PPG in the first half, while their offense ranked inside the Top 10 in first-half scoring.

With their strong starts this postseason, and their shut down secondary, it is hard for me to see the Eagles losing this game. In addition to Philadelphia’s defense dominating the first half, the Chiefs have scored just 3.3 PPG in the third quarter this season. If these trends continue, and the Eagles can establish an early lead, the Chiefs have been slow to start in the second half all season, which in turn would give the Eagles a chance to extend their lead. Additionally, history sides with the Eagles strong starts. The team that has scored first has won 63.7% of the Super Bowls. If Philadelphia can make their early statement as they have for most of the season, they will position themselves nicely.

Philadelphia’s defense matches well against the Chiefs’ offense. The Eagles allowed just 174.2 passing YPG during the regular season, while the Chiefs have accounted for nearly 68% of their yards in the air. Though Mahomes has the big game experience and the Eagles secondary features some rookies like Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, the Chiefs will have to find a way to get their ground game early and take the pressure off of their quarterback.

Underdogs have also covered each of the last four Super Bowl’s while also going 3-1 straight up. In addition to that, the team with the better regular season record is just 1-16 ATS over the last 17 Super Bowls. There are too many numbers pointing to the Eagles in this one.

My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +1.5

Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds

Point Total

Over 48.5: -110

Under 48.5: -110

During the regular season, both the Eagles and Chiefs saw the under hit more frequently than the over. They each hit the under in 10 of their 17 regular season games, which was tied for the second most in the NFL. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have seen each side of the game total, while the Eagles have hit the over in two of their three games.

Since Week 16, the Eagles have hit the over in four of their six games since then, while the Chiefs have seen the south side of the game total in six of their last seven games.

Both defenses are tough. The Eagles secondary can limit the explosive plays and will force Kansas City to focus on their ground game. Additionally, the ground game is the strength of the Eagles offense. And, while the Chiefs have been solid against the run this season, it is hard to see the Eagles going away from their 1-2 punch of Hurts and Barkley. Keeping the ball on the ground will keep the clock moving, and both defenses will get their fair share of stops. This will be a low scoring game, and I could see the Eagles winning this one, 17-14.

My Pick: Under 48.5

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