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Free Super Bowl Picks for 2024 Side ATS and Over Under

by Mike Allen - 1/31/2024

Free Super Bowl picks ATS over and under Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Free Super Bowl LVIII Picks for the Winner and Point Total

Live from Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11, the aptly numerated Super Bowl LVIII will Feature the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs Versus the winners of the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers.

While both teams have obviously had to play well to get to this point, the playoffs have played out rather differently than the regular season for both teams. The Kansas City Chiefs outscored their 17 opponents by a margin of only 76 points.

The San Francisco 49ers, on the other hand, outscored their opponents by a combined 194 points. It comes out to about a difference of a touchdown per game. That's massive, and I think that is why we see the 49ers as the betting favorites for Super Bowl LVIII.

The Niners certainly aren't the betting favorites because of how they have played in the postseason. This team was lucky to get past the Green Bay Packers, and they certainly should not have made it past the Detroit Lions last week. It took a colossal collapse and some terrible decisions from the likely coach of the year, Dan Campbell, for them to win.

With that said, their quarterback, Brock Purdy, did prove to the NFL and its viewers that he is much better than just a game manager.

For the Kansas City Chiefs, they have been an under team for the entire year, struggling to throw the ball down the field with very few explosive plays. If they had paid Tyreek Hill, I don't think they would be betting underdogs coming into this one.

Cheetah or no cheetah, this team is still coached by the legendary Andy Reid and quarterbacked by the cheat code himself, Patrick Mahomes. I'm not going to get into the Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift show like most, because I don't think either of them will make a massive impact on this game.

Kittle and Kelce cancel each other out, and that's that.

The stars of Super Bowl LVIII, in my opinion, will be the leaders of the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have successfully changed their image from primarily an offensive team to a team that wins from their defense.

I don't think they purposely handicapped themselves by not having a downfield threat this year, but again, they have a cheat code, and its last name is Mahomes.

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Super Bowl LVIII Betting Odds

Point Spread

San Francisco: -2

Kansas City: +2

This betting line opened at -2 for the San Francisco 49ers. It was quickly back down to -1, back up to -1.5, where it settled for a day or so, and then now the spread is back to -2 points.

That makes Mahomes an underdog. You have probably heard this statistic before, but in his career, the Tyler, Texas, native is 10-1-1 against the spread as a betting dog. That is the number one trend for the Super Bowl, and honestly, I'm a little bit surprised that the line made its way back up to two in favor of the Niners.

Yes, San Francisco has a significantly better roster, but they are struggling right now. And the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an AFC Title Game where they shut down Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, holding John Harbaugh's team to only 10 points.

On one hand, I like the fact that the 49ers had to battle back to win because their modus operandi all year was they were frontrunners, and if they fell behind, they stayed behind and eventually lost. On the other hand, their defense is looking worse than it has the entire season.

That is the big worry for me if I were to back San Francisco, especially as a betting favorite because, again, they are playing against a cheat code and possibly the best NFL coach of all time.

Maybe Purdy isn't a game manager, but you know what else he isn't? Mr. Mahomes. Maybe Kyle Shanahan is the best offensive play caller in the league, but he has yet to prove to anyone that he is on the same level as the man under the headset who will be standing 60 yards across from him at Super Bowl LVIII.

Teams with a ton of playoff experience tend to know when to turn it on for the postseason.

I don't like the front four for the 49ers on defense. I think they're going to get pushed around a bit, and this will open up some holes and possibly cutting lanes for the lightning-quick hole-hitter Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco.

Is he as good as the 49ers star Christian McCaffrey? No, but I believe he can be just as effective at Super Bowl LVIII. Deebo Samuel will be a problem like he always is, and I am confident in legendary left tackle Trent Williams to protect his quarterback's blind side.

These are both cool stories, but they still aren't as important to me as the playoff experience of the Chiefs, the coaching advantage KC will have, and I know I keep saying it, but Mahomes is a cheat code.

Pick: Kansas City (+2)

Point Total

Over 47.5: -110

Under 47.5: -110

I know it might promote a bit of boredom on what's supposed to be the best night of football for the entire season, but I like the under 47.5 more than I like the Chiefs (+2).

The public likes to bet overs, and we are more than a week away at the time of this writing from Super Bowl LVIII. So, If you want to bet the under, I would wait a bit because the vast majority of public betting will happen over the weekend a day or two before the big game.

During the regular season, the Chiefs went under the point total 70% of the time. I understand they were up against a stout Baltimore Ravens defense last week, but they still scored only 17 points.

I understand at this point that using logic to bet on the NFL usually isn’t the best policy. The total of 47.5 is a key number, though. If we take the under, we can still get paid with a 24-23 final.

The Kansas City Chiefs managed only 4.4 yards per play in their AFC Championship win over Baltimore. That may be a whole yard under their regular season average, but it is still indicative of them not having explosive capabilities down the field.

Speaking of downfield capabilities, Kansas City held the Dolphins to 7 points. I don't believe we will see a shootout on Super Sunday. So, give me the under 47.5 points.

Pick: Under 47.5

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