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Free NCAA Tournament Betting Picks for the First Round

by Mike Allen - 3/19/2024

Free NCAA Tournament betting picks Rob Dillingham Kentucky Wildcats

Selection Sunday and Manic Monday have passed. The countdown is on for Thursday at Noon EST when the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off.

Many of you guys probably have brackets already filled out, and a few of you may even have some early bets on the table. The lines will tighten as we progress through the rounds, so it isn't the worst idea to attack the first round with some aggression.

There are several angles one can take when betting on these first-round matchups. Many use the seeding to help them determine their picks, while others are focused mainly on analytics. Some use the betting odds. The latter is likely the best idea for success.

From there, though, we need to find an edge on either side to make a smart betting pick.

Today, we have some free NCAA Tournament first-round betting picks for you. Let’s look at the lines for some of the games we have picked out for you and make those predictions.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Auburn vs Yale

The Auburn Tigers are analytical aces heading into the NCAA Tournament. They are also red-hot right now, coming off of a dominant SEC Tournament, beating the Florida Gators in the finals 86-67 just a few days ago.

On the other side, we have the Yale Bulldogs, who were the best Ivy League team throughout the regular season. They were incredibly fortunate to make it past Brown, though, in the finals of the conference tournament.

Brown is terrible, and the step up in competition will be a big one for these brainiacs.

Point Spread

Auburn: -11.5

Yale: +11.5

The Tigers of Auburn have won six straight games and by more than 12 points in five of those games. This was all against SEC teams.

Yale has two games against strong squads this season (Gonzaga and Kansas), and they lost both contests by 15 points. This betting line opened at 13.5. So, we are getting some value if we take the Tigers to cover the spread.

Moneyline

Auburn: -1000

Yale: +625

Point Total

Over 138: -115

Under 138: -115

I have Auburn going deep into this year’s NCAA Tournament, and it starts with a second-half drubbing of Yale once the Bulldogs are in foul trouble.

Pick: Auburn Tigers (-11.5)

Kentucky vs Oakland

Have you had the opportunity to catch a Kentucky Wildcats game this year? While their defense and play on the road have left some fans disappointed, they are the most exciting team to watch play basketball.

They may have not only the best freshman in the nation, but the two best. And neither of those guys is the top player on the team.

The frosh backcourt of Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham is one of the most dynamic we have seen in some time. Sheppard has gotten most of the praise and hype, shooting over 54% from the field on the year and 52.5% from beyond the arc. Add 4.5 assists per game with 2.5 steals, and you have your Freshman of the Year.

Dillingham isn't far behind, and he brings a level of speed and athleticism that is uncommon amongst uncommon men. He can get to the basket and finish like Allen Iverson, but don't play too far off of him because he has a touch from the outside, as well as draining 45% of his three-point attempts.

Point Spread

Kentucky: -12.5

Oakland: +12.5

Oakland tested themselves a few times this season with steps up in competition, and they failed miserably each time. I expect more of the same against Kentucky here, who may put up 100 points against the Golden Grizzlies.

Moneyline

Kentucky: -1100

Oakland: +650

Point Total

Over 163.5: -115

Under 163.5: -115

I have it 93-74 in favor of Kentucky.

Pick: Kentucky (-12.5)

Texas Tech vs NC State

The NC State Wolfpack could be headed for a let-down game as they just won the ACC Tournament as a No. 10 seed.

This team had lost four in a row when they strung together five straight wins in the conference tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. It was a pleasure watching them, though, I have to say.

Their power forward/center, DJ Burns Jr., is a tank with a touch. The 6-foot-9 Winthrop transfer weighs in at 275 pounds and has no problem posting up and pushing around any opposing big man.

I love the touch he puts on his shots also. To be such a big guy carrying the extra weight, he can put it in the air ever so softly.

NC State may have run out of steam, though. five wins in five days, including beating their rival Tar Heels in the title game, can take it out of you. They will have had plenty of time to physically recover. However, where are their heads at?

Are they in the clouds or grounded?

As for the Red Raiders of Texas Tech, they are the better team from the better conference. They have more talent. However, said talent, and, most importantly, their 7-footer Warren Washington, is doubtful to play.

There are other injury concerns as well for Texas Tech. A lot of people are looking to fade NC State in this spot, as the point spread is smaller than one would think, considering the record of the Wolfpack.

Point Spread

Texas Tech: -5.5

NC State: +5.5

Moneyline

Texas Tech: -220

NC State: +190

Point Total

Over 146: -105

Under 146: -115

A nonconference record of 13-2 stands out to me, though. What I heard from the Texas Tech head coach about the health of some key players heading into this matchup was concerning, to say the least.

I will take the Wolfpack to cover the 5.5 points.

Pick: NC State (+5.5)

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