Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/30/2024

by Spencer Toth - 10/30/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping OG Anunoby

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks weekday game and will be providing the best bets along the way. By using knowledge of both the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to generate a consistent profit for the third consecutive season. 

On Monday night, the Knicks fell below the .500 mark after a 110-104 home defeat against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks took a lead into the fourth quarter but were unable to hold on after allowing 36 points in the final frame. The Knicks had six players score 14+ points, but their lack of scoring depth off the bench was exposed. Head coach Tom Thibodeau routinely gives his starters heavy minutes. And with a top-heavy Knicks lineup, this year will be no exception. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

From a betting perspective, we went 0-2 on the night. The Knicks blew a late lead and were unable to cover the -2.5 point spread. We also sprinkled on Karl-Anthony Towns to score 2+ three pointers, but he finished with just one. 

Tonight, the New York Knicks (1-2) take a trip down to Florida to take on the Miami Heat (2-1). Miami has leaned on their defense to get off to a solid start, allowing just 102 PPG in their two victories this season. Miami has been able to consistently go on deep playoff runs despite a low regular season seed thanks to strong defense and a motivated Jimmy Butler. Butler is a difficult player to get a read on, as one night he will look like prime Michael Jordan, and the next night he will finish in single digits. His reluctance to shoot the 3-ball turns him into a different breed of player compared to most in the modern-day NBA. Butler’s favorite shot is a simple mid-range jumper, something he can knock down with incredible efficiency. The Knicks will need to make sure they spread the court well on defense, as Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier are both capable of hitting open shots. Butler’s ability to handle the basketball with two other guards on the court can make the Miami offense difficult to pin down. They play slow, methodical basketball and rarely turn it over. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has insisted he even wants to get Bam Adebayo behind the arc as often as possible. 

The Knicks haven’t gotten off to the start they had hoped, but that doesn’t mean it is time to throw in the towel. Depth was always going to be an issue for New York after they traded away several role players, but it is coming back to bite them sooner than expected. Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa are both already injured, and Josh Hart has a nagging leg injury already developing at this stage of the season.

New York’s slow start can be attributed to a variety of aspects, but the most glaring issue is the lack of scoring from Jalen Brunson. The season is still young, but Brunson hasn’t been anywhere near the level the Knick fan base has gotten accustomed to. His 23 PPG, on 47.4% from the floor and 4.7 assists are all far lower than any season he has had in a Knicks uniform. He has yet to score 27+ points this year, something he did in 44/77 games last season. Brunson got offensive reinforcements with Towns and Mikal Bridges joining the roster, but the departures of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo should result in a similar amount of volume for Brunson. 

New York has the defense to match Miami’s starting five. Josh Hart and OG Anunoby are both excellent defenders at all five positions, but their injury concerns will not allow them to play 40+ minutes on a nightly basis. The rest of the Knicks lineup will need to step up defensively when their floor generals are off the court, and this Miami team is the perfect test to do so. The Heat’s slow pace of play could allow New York to find their footing defensively. We saw how they were able to shut down the Pacers in transition, and the Heat are usually reluctant to push the pace. 

For the first bet of the night, we will be taking the Under 215.5 points. Miami’s defense has proven themselves over the last several years, and they can easily hold the Knicks to around 100 points tonight. The Heat’s defense gets significantly worse on the bench, but the lack of depth for the Knicks will not allow them to expose their biggest weakness defensively. On the other end of the court, there is no doubt Thibodeau will demand better. The Knicks have a star studded starting five, but they need maximum defensive effort in order to succeed. Towns and Bridges will need to figure out how to gel with their new team, and a slow-paced Heat offense could allow them to do just that. 

For the second bet of the night, we will be absolutely unloading the clip. Based on the numbers alone, this is the best bet of the night and could even be the best bet of the season. Bam Adebayo has added the three-point shot to his game after lighting it up from deep in the preseason. He averaged 1.3 makes on 3.3 attempts from behind the arc in the preseason but has been unable to translate that success into the regular season. He has gone exactly 0/2 in all three games this season and is due to see one go through the hoop. Spoelstra said that the floor for Adebayo attempts in two per night, and he would have no problems seeing the big man shoot 7-8 attempts. Assuming Adebayo shoots two or more attempts again, he should hit at least one. Based on his 35.7% three-point percentage last season, if he takes two shots there is a 59% chance he hits one or more. Even if that number is regressing slightly after he’s gone 0/6 this season, the +170 odds on him to make a triple is way too good to pass up. These are fantastic odds for a likely prop, and do not hesitate to pile the cash on Adebayo tonight. 

Pick: Knicks vs Cavaliers Under 215.5 2 Units

Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Three’s +170 7 Units

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers