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Forever Young Odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/26/2024

Kentucky Derby 2024

With the Kentucky Derby being almost exclusively an American tradition, it comes as no surprise that foreign horses have not fared well in Churchill Downs. In the 149 previous "Run for the Roses", only five foreign horses crossed the finish line first: Omar Khayyam (1917-England), Tomy Lee (1959-England), Northern Dancer (1964-Canada), Canonero II (1971-Venezuela), and Sunny's Halo (1983-Canada). Northern Dancer held the record for the fastest Derby until Secretariat re-wrote all of the history books in 1973.

Yet while there has minimal success from foreign-bred horses, Japanese horses have yet to contribute to that list. There have only been four Japan-bred runners, and the best finish they earned was sixth (Master Fencer-2019 and Derma Sotogake-2023). While there are two Japanese entries (Forever Young and TO Password) into the historic 150th Kentucky Derby, all eyes will be on the colt Forever Young as he brings his perfect 5-0 record to Churchill Downs to take on the American competitors.

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Breeding: Forever Young was sired out of the Congrats mare Forever Darling. Real Steel was a very accomplished turf runner, winning two graded stakes and finishing in the money in nine out of his 16 races, all outside the United States. Forever Darling won the 6 1/2-furlong 2016 Santa Ynez (G2). When she lengthened her distance, her performance dropped a bit. Real Steel's offspring have been quite successful, with 129 of the 307 foals (42%) going on to be winners. The career earnings of $13,670,475 would indicate that not many of these wins were in high-profile races.

Trainer: One of Japan's leading trainers, Yoshito Yahagi, is ranked 22nd in the TRC Global Rankings for trainers. He became the first Japanese trainer to win a Breeders' Cup race, by winning the Filly and Mare Turf and Distaff in 2021. He was scheduled to make his Kentucky Derby debut last year with Continuar but scratched him shortly before the race due to poor training performances.

Jockey: The 26-year-old Ryusei Sakai has been the mount for Forever Young's entire five-race career. He is currently ranked 30th in the TRC Global Rankings for jockeys. He has also been Continuar's jockey, so his Kentucky Derby history mirrors that of the trainer, Yoshito Yahagi.

Prior experience: Forever Young made his racing debut last October 14 in the 2023 2YO Newcomer in Kyoto against a field of 14 unraced competitors over 1800 meters (1 1/8 miles). Going off as the second-choice at 16/5, he won by four lengths in convincing fashion. His second race took place just 20 days later in the 2023 JBC Nisai Yushun (LS). As a heavy 6/5 favorite in the 12-horse field, he won the 1 1/8-mile race in a rather pedestrian 1:54.30. The final race of his 2-year-old campaign was in the 1-mile 2023 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun (LS). Once again, Forever Young was the huge 11-10 favorite in the 12-horse field. He won in decisive fashion, finishing 7-lengths ahead of another strong Japanese horse, Aigle Noir. These strong wins encouraged Yahagi to venture outside of Japan and put Forever Young up against foreign competition. His first race in his 3-year-old campaign came on February 24 at the 1-mile 2024 Saudi Derby (G3) at King Abdulaziz Race Track in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He started rather flat in the 12-horse field but showed amazing resilience in the closing stretch to defeat the American-bred Danno by a head. He then took his perfect record onto the UAE Derby (G2) at the Meydan Race Course in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Going up against 11 competitors, Forever Young ran a smart race, conserving speed while never dropping too far off the lead. In the closing stages, when Sakai asked him to go, Forever Young easily responded and won by 2-lengths from Auto Bahn.

Odds, Analysis, and Prediction: The early morning line shows Forever Young as the fourth selection, going off at 10-1 odds. According to a 2015 New York Times feature, the Japanese horse-breeding industry underwent a fundamental change as they started to develop horses for the more classical distance races. This paradigm in the Japanese training community helps to explain the failure of Japanese-trained horses in the Derby. Forever Young is a product of these sweeping changes. The question I have about him is the competition, or lack thereof, that he has come up against. The 5-0 record looks lovely, but it's like a varsity team beating up on JV scrubs, so it doesn't mean as much as an undefeated North American horse. In his first foreign race in the Saudi Derby, he was helped by a rather slow pace that allowed him to close from a distance. Even then, he just eeked out a win against the American Book'em Danno by a head. In the UAE Derby, it looked like Sakai learned from the previous race, as they were never far from the leaders. While that sort of progress is encouraging, I just don't think it's going to translate to success at Churchill Downs. While Forever Young is a popular selection among the horse racing pundits, I'll be fading him in my picks for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

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