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2021 Florida Gators Football Predictions: Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/26/2021

College football picks Anthony Richardson Florida Gators season win total predictions

2020 Record: 8-4

2021 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.0

2021 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: ‘Push’

I’m a big fan of Dan Mullen’s work on the field. All Mullen does is field quality teams in one of the most competitive conferences in football. He has gone 29-9 straight up in three years at Florida and has a 98-55 career record; all in the SEC. Mullen is legit.

On its surface, last year’s 8-4 campaign seems like a nondescript year. You could be forgiven for feeling like Florida even underachieved after winning 10 and 11 games in the two seasons prior. A closer look reveals an even more complicated truth about last season for the Gators, who started the season 8-1, played their way to No. 6 in the country and into playoff consideration, and then collapsed with three straight losses.

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Florida lost all kinds of talent from last year’s squad. Particularly from an offense that averaged 39.8 points per game. Quarterback Kyle Trask and first round draft picks Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts were all elite performers. Florida has some capable, if unproven, replacements. But there is almost no way that they will come close to matching last year’s high-flying attack.

Florida’s defense was an absolute train wreck last year, so it is probably a good thing that they are retooling on that side of the ball. They brought back only five starters from a group that got torched for at least 35 points in half of their 12 games. They were No. 100 in the nation against the pass and surrendered an average of 30.8 points per game.

Mullen has always been an exceptional defensive mind. I don’t expect it to take him very long to get things fixed on his stop unit. The Gators allowed just 20.0 points per game in 2018 and 15.5 in 2019.

The SEC East is a mess this year. South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are all garbage piles. Missouri is meh. And when Kentucky is considered a top tier team in your division, then your division sucks. That should help pave the way for the Gators to have a successful season, even in somewhat of a rebuilding season.

Florida would have to lose four games in order to come up short against this number. I don’t see them beating Alabama or Georgia (even despite their longstanding domination of the Bulldogs). They also have a tough game at LSU. But that’s really it. The Gators should be favored in nine of their 12 games, and the majority of their opponents – FAU, Vanderbilt, Samford – are worthless.

I think the Gators, No. 13 in the AP Top 25 and No. 11 in the Coaches Poll, are way overrated heading into the season. I think they will be money burners at the window. But that won’t impact their W’s. This team has a cupcake schedule, and I’ve seen Mullen do enough solid work in this conference over the past 13 years to expect him to get the most out of this squad. I’ll call for 9-3 and a ‘push’.

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