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2024-25 Florida Gators Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/22/2024

Florida Gators basketball predictions Walter Clayton Jr.

The Florida Gators showcased one of the most explosive offenses in the country and gave us some real classics down the home stretch of the regular season. In what seemed like shootout after shootout, Florida finished 11-7 in the Southeastern Conference, which was the sixth best conference record. They bolstered their resume down the stretch, as they picked up key wins against Alabama (twice, once in the conference tournament), Kentucky, Auburn, all the while reaching the conference final and finishing as the Southeastern Conference runners-up. The Gators headed into March Madness as the 7-Seed in the South Region, but they were upended by the 10-Seed Colorado Buffaloes who took down the Gators, winning by a score of 102-100.

In his first year with the Gators, after transferring from Iona, Walter Clayton Jr. led the team in scoring with 17.6 PPG. He was complimented by Zyon Pullin, the best three-point shooter on the roster, who shot 44.9% from deep. Pullin (15.5 PPG), Tyrese Samuel (13.9 PPG), and Will Richard (11.4 PPG) joined Clayton Jr. as the four Gators to record double-digit PPG. As a team, Florida ranked third in the conference in PPG as the averaged 85.6 per contest. What really propelled this team was their ability to create second chances as they finished second in the conference and third nationally with 14.6 offensive RPG. The defense wasn’t the best as they allowed 79.2 PPG, but they did limit their opponents’ impact from deep as their opponents shot just 32.6% from deep, which allowed Florida to win the shootouts.

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Florida Gators Basketball Key Additions/Losses

After averaging 9.2 PPG and 23.4 minutes with the Gators, guard Riley Kugel transferred to conference foe Mississippi State. Kugel was the only significant player to transfer off the team. Kugel’s departure is highly shadowed by Pullin and Samuel’s absence. Samuel made his mark felt in his lone year with the Gators as a graduate transfer from Seton Hall, while Pullin moved on to the NBA and was on the Miami Heat’s roster during the preseason.

After losing two of the team’s top scorers and a solid role piece in the backcourt, the Gators had some holes to fill if they wished to remain relevant in a strong conference. To add long-term depth in the backcourt, Florida brought in two three-star guards out of high school including the top Slovenian in Urban Klavzar. Their biggest addition from the high school ranks was center Olivier Rioux who is listed as 7-foot-6. For a more immediate solution, the Gators brought in three players via the transfer portal. Alijah Martin joins Clayton Jr. as the other Florida Gator to have a shot at the Wooden Award. Martin travels upstate to join the Gators as a grad transfer after four solid years at FAU. He averaged 13.1 PPG last season and 1.6 SPG. Joining Martin is center Rueben Chinyelu who started 12 games for Washington State and forward Sam Alexis who nearly averaged a double-double last season (10.8/9.1) with UT Chattanooga.

Florida Gators Basketball X-Factors

Conference Play- The Southeastern Conference has nine teams in the AP Top 25. Last season, the Gators went 4-5 against ranked conference opponents, but otherwise took care of business. The other two conference losses were on the road, and each were by just one point. Florida has six games away from home against Top 25 opponents this season while they have three at home against ranked teams in the conference. Florida can better position themselves if they steal another win or two against ranked conference opponents.

3-Point Shooting- Florida’s winning recipe was just to outlast the opponent in a shootout. They were one of the best shooting teams in the nation with multiple weapons. They lost their best three-point shooter in Pullin, but they went out and got Martin who should be able to fill his shoes. Martin has a career 36.9% mark from deep while Richard and Alexis have the potential to be deadly from beyond the arc as well. Imagine how much better this team could be if they could take some of the attention off of Clayton Jr., allowing him to open up his game even more.

Florida Gators Basketball Notable Games

Home- #12 Tennessee, #13 Texas A&M, #24 Ole Miss

Away/Neutral- #9 UNC, #23 Kentucky, #16 Arkansas, #12 Tennessee, #11 Auburn, #2 Alabama

Florida Gators Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +6000

Final Four: +1500

Conference Winner: +3200

Wood Award: Walter Clayton Jr. - +4000

Wooden Award: Alijah Martin - +12000

AP Top 25- 21st

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 20th

KenPom- 28th

Florida Gators Basketball Predictions

The conference is a tough one, so you are better off looking at the value you can get for the Gators being a Final Four squad. With shooting potential like this, the Gators can upend anyone in the country. The problem will be consistency and their ability to slow down the better offenses they will face in conference play. If Alexis and Richard can step up and compliment Clayton Jr. and Martin, these Gators will be unstoppable on the offensive side of the floor. Look for more exciting games from the Gators this season as they give us some more classics against the better competition on the schedule. Also, though unlikely with guys like Hunter Dickinson, RJ Davis, and Mark Sears headlining the list, Clayton Jr. could be an excellent dark horse candidate to win the Wooden Award at +4000.

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