2023 Florida Derby Predictions: Top Five Contenders

by Dave Schwab - 3/29/2023

As a major prep race for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6, the Florida Derby is at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, April 1. The Grade 1 stakes race is open to three-year-old thoroughbreds and the prize purse is $1 million. The Florida Derby covers 1 1/8 miles on dirt as the featured event of this race card.

Of the 12 entries in Saturday’s Florida Derby, there are five horses with morning line odds along with my percentage to win the race.

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Forte (4-5 Odds)

Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., this Kentucky-bred colt is starting at No. 11 for this race. He is also starting at the odd-on favorite after winning his last four races in his two-year-old and three-year-old career. Forte finished first as a three-year-old in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 4. He raced at Belmont Park, Saratoga and Keeneland as a juvenile.

Sired by Violence, Forte was bred to go more than a mile on dirt and win this race. He is the early favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Winning Percentage: 70%

Fort Bragg (5-1 Odds)

As a son of Tapit, he finished a disappointing fifth in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park in his last race as a three-year-old. However, Fort Bragg finished in the money as a juvenile in all four events at Del Mar, Santa Anita and Los Alamitos Race Course. He placed third in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 17 to end his two-year career.

Fort Bragg has raced 1 1/16 miles on dirt in his last three events, and he could step-up in distance and class this Saturday at Gulfstream if the breaks fall his way.

Winning Percentage: 5%

Dubyuhnell (6-1 Odds)

Trained by Danny Gargan, he is breaking outside from No. 12 gate with Jose Ortiz as his jockey. Dubyuhnell finished eighth in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 11 in his debut as a three-year-old, so the path for success in the Grade 1 Florida Derby is unclear. He finished first in his last two races as a juvenile.

Dubyuhnell has raced competitively for West Paces Racing, LLC and Stonestreet Stables, LLC. Sired by Good Magic, he was bred to go more than a mile on dirt.

Winning Percentage: 5%

Cyclone Mischief (8-1 Odds)

As a son of Into Mischief, he placed third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream after Forte and Rocket Can. Cyclone Mischief had his last three races at Gulfstream as a three-year-old colt. He completed his two-year career at Churchill Downs and Keenland while being bred in Kentucky.

Trained by Dale Romans, Cyclone Mischief has enough experience at Gulfstream to finish in the money in this race.

Winning Percentage: 15%

Mage (10-1 Odds)

As a live longshot on the morning line in this race, Mage finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in early March. He is trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by jockey Luis Saez out of the No. 4 gate. Mage had races at Gulfstream in two races as a three-year-old colt in his only competitive events.

Also sired by Good Magic, he also has home-track advantage in the Florida Derby with his familiarity at Gulfstream.

Winning Percentage: 5%

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2023 Florida Derby Predictions: Top Five Contenders

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