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2025 First Touchdown Scored Super Bowl Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/30/2025

Super Bowl first touchdown scored prop predictions Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles

With the Super Bowl just 10 days away, the time to start placing bets on props is now. Super Bowl LIX between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs is going to be an all-time matchup and with it, some all-time betting props for you to dive into. One of the most popular prop bets in all sports is the first touchdown scorer, so let’s take a look at the top five players from both the Chiefs and the Eagles with the best odds of reaching the end zone first.

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First Touchdown Numbers

The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to become the first team in Super Bowl history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They went 15-2 during the regular season, with one loss coming in the final week of the regular season in a game where they rested their starters. Including their two playoff games thus far, the Chiefs have played in 12 one-possession games this season. Kansas City has scored the first touchdown in 11 of their 19 games total this season, including both playoff games. In the two playoff games, the first touchdown scorer was Kareem Hunt, and both were rushing touchdowns. Hunt was the most frequent first touchdown scorer for the Chiefs, as he had a total of five first touchdown rushing touchdowns. Mahomes recorded a first touchdown rushing touchdown in their regular season game against the Houston Texans, and then he also found five different receivers who caught the first touchdown of the game at different points in the season. The Eagles match up well against the Chiefs’ run game, as they have allowed just nine rushing touchdowns this season, which is the second lowest in the NFL. They also lead the league in passing defense, as they allowed just 174.2 passing YPG this season. The Eagle’s defense is dominant and limited opponents to just 17.8 PPG in the regular season and just 18.3 PPG in the postseason.

Philadelphia is looking to win their second Super Bowl of all time and their second in seven years. They went 14-3 in the regular season, won the NFC East, and have breezed through the playoffs thus far, going 3-0 with a +50-point differential. The Eagles have scored the first touchdown in 75% of their games this season, if you include their three playoff games, and have scored the first touchdown in each of their three playoff games. Saquon Barkley leads the team with scoring the first touchdown this season. Of the 15 games in which the Eagles reached the end zone first, Barkley did it six total times, four of which were on the ground and two were receiving. Jalen Hurts was next on the team with three first touchdown rushing touchdowns. A.J Brown was the only other player to do it multiple times with two first touchdown receiving touchdowns. Jahan Dotson, DeVonta Smith, Ainias Smith each did it once, while C.J. Gardner-Johnson recorded a Pick Six in their Week 17 game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Chief’s run defense is solid, as they ranked eighth in rushing YPG allowed, and their 13 rushing touchdowns allowed ranked 10th in the league. However, their passing defense ranks 18th as they allowed 218.8 passing YPG.

Both teams have nearly even splits in how they scored the first touchdown of the game. However, with respect to the matchup, let’s take a look at who has the Top Five odds on each team to record Super Bowl LIX’s first touchdown:

Kansas City Chiefs Players

Kareem Hunt +900: Hunt leads all Chiefs with +900 odds of scoring the game’s first touchdown. Statistically, he would be the best option considering he has led the Chiefs to this point as the games first scorer with five rushing touchdowns. In this game, he trails only Barkley, who has recorded the first score just one more time. Hunt has been the go-to option for the Chiefs in the postseason as well as being responsible for 33% of the team’s touchdowns.

Travis Kelce +950: Travis Kelce has recorded one touchdown on nine receptions throughout the postseason. He is Mr. Clutch for the Chiefs, and he does have the second most targets on the team. However, this Eagles secondary will have their attention on the veteran tight end all night.

Xavier Worthy +1100: Xavier Worthy is one of the five receivers to record the game’s first touchdown as he did in Week 17 against Pittsburgh. He also leads the Chiefs in targets. Worthy is also a YAC monster, so it would be no surprise to see him break free and record the games first score. If the Chiefs score first, I think it will be because of Xavier Worthy.

Patrick Mahomes +1700: Surprisingly, Mahomes has two rushing touchdowns during the postseason, and both were recorded against the Buffalo Bills. If they got close, I could see Mahomes recording the first score, but he will likely be extra cautious on the ground until the second half.

Isiah Pacheco +1700: Last year, Isiah Pacheco was the do it all back for Kansas City. However, he has just 10 carries through the Chiefs two postseason games. I don’t expect him to see many scoring opportunities unless he breaks free, or Hunt is injured. Pacheco only recorded one run of 20+ yards this season.

Philadelphia Eagles Players

Saquon Barkley +450: Barkley does lead the field in first touchdowns recorded as he did it six times over the course of the Eagles 20 games this season. Barkley recorded 15 total touchdowns this season for the Eagles (13 rushing, 2 receiving). He has been a big play threat in every postseason game so far, and he was the first player to record a touchdown in his last game. He is going to field most of the picks to be the first touchdown scorer of the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts +650: Hurts provides a lot of great value here at +650. He was the game’s first touchdown scorer in their game against the Rams, and he did it twice in the regular season. Hurts ranked fifth in the league and led all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns this season with 14. He has the ability to make defenders miss and create something out of nothing with his legs.

A.J. Brown +1300: Brown caught the game’s first touchdown twice during the regular season, but he has had a tough go of it during the postseason and I expect the Chiefs to lock Brown down for most of the game and they will definitely take away his big play ability early.

DeVonta Smith +1600: Same with Smith. I think the Chiefs will try to avoid letting Hurts beat them in the air. Smith has yet to record a touchdown during the postseason this year, and he has only recorded just four first quarter targets through the Eagles three playoff games.

Dallas Goedert +2000: Goedert is tied with Brown for the team lead in targets over the course of the postseason. However, he would be a wild card pick in this scenario. He has only one postseason touchdown, and he recorded just two in the regular season.

My Pick: Jalen Hurts, +650: Hurts has been doing it all for the Eagles since he has arrived in Philadelphia. In the Chiefs and Eagles previous Super Bowl matchup, Hurts ran the ball in for a one-yard touchdown to open scoring up. And with their long drives, it’s a possibility the end up in a position for a Brotherly Shove and a Hurts score to start the game.

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