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2024 First Touchdown Scored Super Bowl Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Joey House - 1/31/2024

Super Bowl first touchdown scored props predictions Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

One of the fastest-growing markets in sports wagering is proposition bets, or prop bets for short. You can bet on a specific statistical category or outcome, oftentimes regardless of the game's outcome. The Super Bowl is the king of prop bets, with Super Bowl LVII having over 500 different prop bets last season.

A fan-favorite prop bet revolves around who scores a touchdown. You can wager on who scores the first touchdown, the last touchdown, or a player to score a touchdown at any time. And with live, in-game wagering, you can wager on who will score the next touchdown (or perhaps no more touchdowns to be scored).

While doing research for another article, I stumbled on this factoid that could be of great assistance in trying to determine who scores the first touchdown. In the previous 57 Super Bowls, wide receivers have scored the first touchdown 25 times. This is like handicapping the Kentucky Derby and being able to eliminate almost half the field. While it obviously doesn't guarantee success (it is only occurring 43.9% of the time), it does give us an excellent starting point to work from.

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Styles of Offense and Matchups

The first place we start is by comparing styles of offense and how they match up against the opposing defense. The Chiefs were 8th in the league in TD passes (28) and 25th in the league in TD runs (9), with seven of those going to Isiah Pacheco. Even though QB Patrick Mahomes is second on the team in rush attempts and yards, he surprisingly has zero rushing touchdowns this season. Opposing the Chiefs are a Niners defensive unit that is 8th in passing TDs allowed (20) and 4th in rushing TDs given up (10).

Taking a look at the flip side of things, San Francisco's passing attack is the 2nd-most prolific in TD passes (33) and leads the league in touchdown runs (27). The TD-scoring machine that is Christian McCaffrey had 14 TDs on the ground and 7 through the air. Attempting to stop them is a Kansas City defense ranked 4th in passing TDs allowed (19) and 4th in rushing TDs allowed (10).

The Niners truly make us consider all possibilities of touchdown scoring with an almost equal distribution on the ground and the air. Factor in McCaffrey's accounting for 35% of all their TDs, and he is the obvious choice. However, of the 13 times that San Francisco scored the first TD in a game, McCaffrey registered only four of these scores. His current odds of +350 are just too short for this kind of wager. If you're including multiple wagers on this prop, then, by all means, sprinkle him in there. However, if you're just firing one or two shots, there is more value elsewhere.

Kansas City's nine first touchdowns scored slightly favor passing (5) versus rushing (3) and one Defensive/Special Teams score. RB Isiah Pacheco has three running and one receiving, and WR Rashee Rice had two receiving.

Player Analysis

Another vital factor to consider is the usage that each player had, and how many snaps they were on the field for. I've gone back through the entire playoffs to determine how much a player was on the field. Behind each player's name, I'll include the current odds in parentheses for clear visualization.

Isiah Pacheco (+600) KC-RB: Think of Pacheco as "McCaffrey-Lite." He has the same number of first TD scores in a game as CMC (4) and has registered them both rushing and receiving. Next to Mahomes and Kelce, he was on the field more consistently through the playoffs than any other Chief offensive player. With Andy Reid's love affair with screens, he is a very viable option.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3000) KC-RB: Once the focal point of the Chiefs’ rushing attack, Edwards-Helaire now only enters to give Pacheco a break to catch his breath. There is much better value elsewhere.

Rashee Rice (+850) KC-WR: Given what we now know about wide receivers scoring almost half of the first TDs in Super Bowl history, Rice becomes attractive. The fact that he has already cashed two of these bets earlier in the year and is going up against a secondary with some questions makes him that much more appealing.

Justin Watson (+2800) KC-WR: One of the bigger longshots that merit attention. He's 5th on the team in receptions, 4th for receiving TDs, has one of these wagers already, and gets enough reps to have a puncher's chance.

Travis Kelce (+600) KC-TE: Tied with Pacheco for the second shortest odds. Much will be made of his breaking the great Jerry Rice's postseason receptions record. However, how does that help him for this wager? Surprisingly enough, he doesn't have any of these on the year so far. He's Mahomes' favorite target in the red zone and usually his safety valve elsewhere, but I just think you can do better elsewhere. A great anytime touchdown scorer (-120), especially with Taylor Swift there.

Deebo Samuel (+800) SF-WR: After worries that Samuel might miss the NFC Championship game, San Francisco fans breathed a collective sigh of relief seeing Samuel haul in eight of the nine passes thrown his way. He even carried the ball three times. Now that his injury status has been completely cleared, he should see as much if not more action his way. A true home run threat from anywhere on the field, Deebo definitely deserves a strong look.

Brandon Aiyuk (+850) SF-WR: Aiyuk is a very attractive option. After Pacheco and CMC, Aiyuk has the third most 1st TD scores with three. One of them was even a 2-yard reception, showing that San Francisco doesn't ALWAYS give it to McCaffrey down there.

George Kittle (+950) SF-TE: These odds may come back to bite Vegas in the ass. While Kelce is having a better postseason, Kittle had the better overall season, with more yards, higher yards per reception, and more TDs, plus he has cashed this bet once already. If anything, he's more likely than Kelce because Purdy doesn't have the plethora of options that are available to Mahomes. He's played in 97% of the snaps in both of the playoff games and had the second-most targets over the course of the season for the Niners. Plus 950 seems like a gift.

I have a longshot pick that I believe has amazing potential. Even though he doesn't have a rushing TD this season, Kansas City's QB Patrick Mahomes is a very live dog here. First, there have only been three QBs over the course of the Super Bowl that have registered the first TD of the game: Joe Montana in SB XVI, Ben Roethlisberger in SB XL, and Mahomes in SB LIV. This is the first year as a starter that he does not have a single rushing touchdown. And I think with the magnitude of the game, he'll be much more inclined to take off and run. The fact that he's already done this once just makes it that much more attractive. But the real selling point is his odds of +2200. Are you telling me that I can get one of the most athletic QBs in the game today, who has already cashed one of these tickets in a Super Bowl, at 22-1? Yes, please.

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