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MLB Handicapping: Best, Worst Betting Teams First Five Innings

by Matt Jacob - 6/16/2023

MLB First Five innings betting Esteury Ruiz Oakland Athletics

As sports betting has exploded across the country, the wagering menu offered at sportsbooks has expanded exponentially. This is particularly true in MLB, as there are now about as many ways to bet on the sport as there are ways for the Kansas City Royals to lose ballgames.

One of the most popular MLB wagering options: betting on which team will be leading on the scoreboard after five innings.

Similar to halftime wagers in football and basketball, first five innings bets focus solely on the score of a game after the final out of the fifth inning — roughly halfway through a nine-inning contest.

Why is it sometimes to a bettor’s advantage to place a five-innings wager as opposed to a traditional full-game moneyline or run line bet? What are the different ways to make five-inning bets? And who are MLB’s most (and least) profitable five-inning teams in 2023?

Doc’s Sports offers MLB picks for every game on our baseball predictions page.

Read on for the answers.

Why Make a First 5 Innings Bet?

Even the best teams in baseball have one or two shaky starting pitchers who take the ball every fifth day. At the same time, many of baseball’s worst teams have at least one trustworthy starter.

When these particular stars align, a juicy first-five-inning wagering opportunity often presents itself — and often it’s in the form of a plus-money underdog.

The reason? Even though complete games have gone the way of dinosaurs, a solid starting pitcher usually can survive the first five innings. That’s key, because it takes the volatile bullpen component out of the handicapping equation.

To underscore the importance of starting pitching as it relates to first five inning wagering success, consider this:

The Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers rank 1-2-3 in starting pitching ERA, while the Atlanta Braves are sixth.

The four most profitable first five inning moneyline teams as of mid-June (in order): the Rangers, Rays, Braves and Astros.

Of course, while the quality of the starting pitcher (or lack thereof) is the most important factor to consider when diving into the first five innings wagering market, it’s not the only one.

Simply put, the team you’re betting on needs an offense that’s productive early in games. This explains why the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs, respectively, rank 13th and 15th in five-inning moneyline profits despite having MLB’s fourth and fifth best starting pitcher ERAs.

The Twins enter Friday’s action averaging just 2.45 runs in the first five innings of games, while the Cubs check in at 2.53 runs. Those numbers rank 22nd and 17th, respectively, in MLB.

Conversely, the Rangers (3.75), Rays (3.50) and Braves (3.28) lead the way in first five inning run production.

The only other squad averaging more than three runs in the first five innings? The Los Angeles Angels (3.07). However, the Angels’ starting pitchers have a collective 4.77 ERA, which ranks 23rd out of 30 teams. Hence the reason the Halos are 17th in five-inning moneyline profitability.

Types of First Five Innings Wagers

There are two ways to attack the first five innings wagering market — and they mirror the options offered for full-game bets: moneyline and run line.

With a five-inning moneyline bet, you’re wagering on a team to have the lead after five completed innings. However, unlike a full-game moneyline bet, a five-inning moneyline wager can (and frequently does) end with a push.

So, if, say, a game is tied 2-2 after five innings, all five-inning moneyline wagers made on both teams are refunded.

However, if you place a five-inning run line bet, you are either giving or taking half a run. For example, a game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants might have the following five-inning run line pricing:

Dodgers -0.5 runs (+105)/Giants +0.5 runs (-125)

In this scenario, if you backed the Dodgers on the five-inning run line, they must have the lead after five innings to win your bet. And if you wagered $100, you would net a profit of $105.

Conversely, if you took the Giants on the five-inning run line, you would have to lay $125 to win $100. However, your wager would cash even if the game was tied after five innings, because you’re getting the half run.

Playing a favorite on the five-inning run line makes sense if there’s a big mismatch on the mound; if one starting pitcher has a strong history against the opponent’s offense; and/or if the favorite tends to produce a lot of early runs and the underdog is often slow out of the gate.

At the same time, one might make a five-inning run-line bet on an underdog if the starting pitchers and/or offenses are of similar quality. That way if the game is tied after five innings, the wager is a winner.

Most profitable 5-inning teams

As previously noted, the Rangers, Rays, Braves and Astros head into Friday’s action leading the pack when it comes to five-inning moneyline profitability. The clubs right behind that quartet might be a bit surprising.

Here are the details on the seven most profitable five-inning moneyline teams:

Texas Rangers

5-inning moneyline record: 44-16-8

Profitability: +16.3 units (i.e., a $100 better would be up $1,630)

Tampa Bay Rays

5-inning moneyline record: 48-17-7

Profitability: +12.7 units

Atlanta Braves

5-inning moneyline record: 42-20-7

Profitability: +7.8 units

Houston Astros

5-inning moneyline record: 36-21-12

Profitability: +6.5 units

San Francisco Giants

5-inning moneyline record: 31-24-13

Profitability: +4.2 units

Pittsburgh Pirates

5-inning moneyline record: 28-15-14

Profitability: +4.1 units

Miami Marlins

5-inning moneyline record: 32-16-11

Profitability: +3.6 units

Here are the seven most profitable five-inning run line teams:

Tampa Bay Rays

5-inning run line record: 49-23

Profitability: +17.9 units

Texas Rangers

5-inning run line record: 46-22

Profitability: +16.6 units

Atlanta Braves

5-inning run line record: 43-26

Profitability: +9.1 units

New York Yankees

5-inning run line record: 40-29

Profitability: +6.6 units

San Francisco Giants

5-inning run line record: 38-30

Profitability: +3.1 units

Arizona Diamondbacks

5-inning run line record: 39-30

Profitability: +2.8 units

Baltimore Orioles

5-inning run line record: 

Profitability: +1.7 units

Least profitable 5-inning teams

Say this much for the Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals: They’re nothing if not consistent — consistently awful, that is.

The Royals (18-50) and A’s (19-52) own baseball’s worst records by a mile, and no teams have cost bettors more money. Combined, Kansas City and Oakland are down nearly 43 units — meaning if you waged $100 on every Royals and every A’s game, you’d be out almost $4,300.

Well, what do you know, those two hapless franchises also rank as MLB’s two worst five-inning moneyline teams. But they’re hardly the only money burners.

Here are the seven teams anchoring the bottom of the five-inning moneyline standings:

Kansas City Royals

5-inning run line record: 19-40-9

Profitability: -18.7 units

Oakland A’s

5-inning run line record: 17-42-12

Profitability: -16.7 units

Boston Red Sox

5-inning run line record: 24-39-6

Profitability: -16.5 units

Detroit Tigers 

5-inning run line record: 19-35-13

Profitability: -12 units

Philadelphia Phillies

5-inning run line record: 28-33-8

Profitability: -11.5 units

St. Louis Cardinals

5-inning run line record: 24-31-14

Profitability: -10.9 units

New York Mets

5-inning run line record: 30-33-5

Profitability: -10 units

Finally, here are the seven least profitable five-inning run line clubs:

Philadelphia Phillies

5-inning run line record: 29-40

Profitability: -16.4 units

Kansas City Royals

5-inning run line record: 26-42

Profitability: -16 units

St. Louis Cardinals

5-inning run line record: 30-39

Profitability: -13.8 units

Boston Red Sox

5-inning run line record: 29-40

Profitability: -13.3 units

Chicago White Sox

5-inning run line record: 31-39

Profitability: -13 units

Oakland A’s

5-inning run line record: 29-42

Profitability: -12.8 units

Milwaukee Brewers

5-inning run line record: 30-38

Profitability: -12 units

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