Final Four Bracket Predictions and National Championship Odds

by Joey House - 3/28/2023

Final Four bracket predictions Aguek Arop San Diego State Aztecs

And then there were four. Now that the smoke has cleared, and the dust has settled, we have the 2023 Final Four set. Once again, Warren Buffet escaped with his billion dollars safe in his challenge for someone to pick a perfect bracket. The sum of the Final Four seeds is 5+9+5+4, which equals 23. This is the second-highest total ever, after the 2011 Final Four of the Underdogs that featured these seeds: 3,4,8,11. While no one predicted this motley crew to make it this far, Doc Sports will be sure to give you all the information needed so you can cash your ticket.

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National Championship Odds: (5) San Diego State +370 (9) Florida Atlantic +650

Current line: SDSU -2/131.5

There is one Cinderella that is still dancing in this tournament of upsets. Florida Atlantic, coached by Dusty May and out of Conference USA, has surprised many by winning as much as they have. In the Sweet 16, they overcame a 5-point halftime deficit and won going away against Tennessee, 62-55, in a game that yours truly picked correctly. Then in the Elite Eight, they squared off against Markquis Nowell and the Kansas State Wildcats. Even though Nowell went off for 30 points and 12 assists, FAU had four different players in double-digits in scoring and won 79-76 in a fantastic game to decide who got to the Final Four.

San Diego State utilized its impressive depth, as nine players averaged double-digits in minutes in both their 71-64 victory over Alabama and their 57-56 win against Creighton. Where that depth becomes readily apparent is in the defensive display that the Aztecs have shown. Their 4 opponents together averaged a total of scoring 79.8 points per game. However, in the four games against SDSU, these teams combined together could only muster an average total of 57.3 points per game. That's a total of over 22 points less per contest.

While Florida Atlantic hasn't shot the ball with a high percentage of success from 3-point range, where they've made up for that is in the volume that they shot. They've only shot 31.2% from long-range, while making 8.5 3's a contest. Unfortunately for the Paladins, shutting down long-range missile strikes is an Aztec specialty. SDSU has given up, on average, 4 made three-point shots a game, and their opponents are only shooting 17% from downtown.

I think defense and experience is what propels San Diego State to the National Championship Game. FAU has one senior on its whole roster, while SDSU has just one freshman. Couple that with the lock-down defense that the Aztecs have been employing, and I see this as a comfortable San Diego State victory.

Prediction: San Diego State 66, Florida Atlantic 54

National Championship Odds: (4) UConn -125 (5) Miami, FL +475

Current line: UConn -5.5/149

The University of Connecticut Huskies certainly have not played like a number 4 seed in this tourney. Their margin of victories in all four games has been 24 points (Iona), 15 points (St. Mary’s), 23 points (Arkansas), and 28 points (Gonzaga). I said in my Sweet 16 preview against the Razorbacks that UConn has an incredibly balanced team, both offensively and defensively, and they have shown exactly that.

Seventeen years ago, Miami's head coach Jim Larranaga authored one of the biggest Cinderella stories of all time, coaching the George Mason Patriots to a Final Four. Now he’s guiding a slightly less surprising but equally as impressive team. Down by as many as 13 points to the No. 2 seed Texas, the Hurricanes outscored the Longhorns 30-14 over the final 10 minutes to win, 88-81.

All signs point to this being a UConn victory. However, there is an avenue for a Miami victory that should give UConn fans some cause for concern. Teams that play UConn get to the foul line an average of 21 times per game, which has the Huskies ranked 317th in the country for that. Miami shoots 78% from the foul line...as a team. The Hurricanes are ranked 12th in the nation for free throw percentage. So far, all of their games have been blowouts, and foul shooting hasn't come into play. But if Miami can make the game close, this could become a factor. UConn averages committing 18 fouls a game. And while in the first two games of the tourney they were well below their season average, the last two games were at their norm.

In analyzing the Arkansas-UConn matchup, I said that the winner of that contest has a legitimate shot at winning it all. I still think that UConn will advance here, but I think Miami gets the cover.

Prediction: UConn 73, Miami 70

National Championship Game

In following my picks, the San Diego State Aztecs will battle the University of Connecticut Huskies for the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship. Since losing to Creighton on February 11, the Huskies have gone 10-1. But they're not just winning these games, they are destroying their opponents. Their average margin of victory is 17.3 points, and the closest game (besides their 2-point loss in the Big East tourney) was a 6-point win in that same tourney. They are playing on another level. San Diego State has flirted with great teams with a Kawhi Leonard-led Sweet 16 team in 2011 and another Sweet 16 run in 2014. As of now, UConn is the clear-cut favorite to win the championship, and there's a reason why. They are the most complete team in terms of offense and defense. They can beat you in a multitude of ways, and their only weakness is their tendency to foul more than the national average. If they stay healthy, this is their tourney to lose.

Championship prediction: UConn 76, San Diego State 65

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Final Four Bracket Predictions and National Championship Odds

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