Fierceness Odds to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/23/2024

It's the holiday season for horse racing fans and "punters" alike, as we are less than two weeks away from the first leg of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby. As if it needed any more excitement or fanfare, this year's "Run for the Roses" is the historic 150th edition of the fabled race. Because of the popularity of "The Most Exciting 2 Minutes in Sports", each Derby serves as an introduction to the wonderful and exciting world of horse racing, as well as the potentially lucrative aspect of betting on the ponies. Here at Doc's, we cater to the seasoned handicapper, as well as the virgin bettor looking to break their maiden. With over 50 years in the handicapping business, we've seen just about everything and will prepare you to rake in the winnings.

One of the things we witnessed for the first time was last year's epic run of bad luck for the Kentucky Derby hopefuls. The 2023 Derby had five horses that were "scratched", or withdrawn from the race. Included in that list of five thoroughbreds was the heavy favorite Forte, scratched just hours before post-time on the day of the Derby. So, when preparing a strategy for wagering on not only the Derby but any race, it was highly advised to have an alternate plan of attack ready for this unfortunate but possible contingency.

Horse handicappers love to create and research "systems" when they are attempting to predict the winner of a particular race. The "Run for the Roses" spawns more systems because of the Derby's immense popularity and its long, rich history. While these systems can be an excellent starting point in your handicapping, by no means should they be the only step taken in your research. My ex-father-in-law, who introduced me to horse racing and handicapping, was a big proponent of "last-time-out winners", or horses that had won in their previous race. Winning, just as it is for team sports, seems to be contagious for horses as well.

One of this year's Kentucky Derby favorites, Fierceness, checked off that box in spectacular fashion when he won the 2024 Florida Derby (G1) on March 30th by 13 1/2 lengths. Of all the races on the Kentucky Derby Prep Race circuit, the Florida Derby has been the best indicator of future success in the Kentucky Derby. Since 2000, six Florida Derby winners have gone on to visit the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May: Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017).

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Breeding: Fierceness is lucky enough to have received an A++ in the Equline Pedigree Rating system. He was sired by City of Light out of the Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella in March of 2021. City of Light has sired 309 foals of racing age, with 146 of them starters (47%) and 81 winners (26%), with total earnings of $9,960,475. The sire City of Light was a multiple graded stakes winner, including his final two races at the 2018 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and a dominating performance on a sloppy track in the Pegasus World Cup in 2019.

Trainer: Fierceness is trained by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. Unless there are a ton of scratches, this will most likely be Pletcher's only entry in the Run for the Roses. The Hall of Famer has two Derby wins on his resume with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Pletcher's offerings in the Derby have been less than impressive as of late, with just one In The Money (ITM) finish in the last 10 entries dating back to 2018. This will mark just the third time in his illustrious training career that Pletcher has only one horse running in the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey: Fierceness has been ridden by the impressive John R Velazquez for the last four races. Velazquez, who is currently ranked 14th in the world jockey rankings for earnings with $3,438,670, is the active leader among jockeys with three Kentucky Derby wins in 25 races: Animal Kingdom (2011), Always Dreaming (2017), and Authentic during the 2020 Covid year, when the Derby was run in November. Velazquez is Pletcher's first choice in jockeys, and the pair already have one Derby win together.

Prior experience: Fierceness broke his maiden his first time out, back on August 25 at Saratoga over 6 Furlongs (F). He followed that up with a colossal thud in the 2023 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct, fading to a dismal 7th on a sloppy track in October. Less than a month later, Fierceness bounced back in a major way, winning the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in a dominating performance. His first race of the new calendar year produced a disappointing third in the 2024 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream in February. Then came another monumental bounce back with his record-setting 13 1/2-length romp in the 2024 Florida Derby (G1).

Odds, Analysis, and Prediction: There is no denying that Fierceness is a special horse, and his short odds of 3-1 bear that out. When he runs his race, he can be just as dominant as any of the powerhouse thoroughbreds of recent memory. His classic run in the Florida Derby was as impressive a victory as you will ever witness. Even in his defeats, he had grabbed a share of the lead before his tanks just went dry before they were supposed to. It's not much fun or very sexy betting on chalk, but these horses are chalk for a reason. The disappointing defeats in Fierceness's past may actually help keep his odds more enticing. Even though he was eventually scratched, last year's heavy favorite Forte came into the Derby having won 6 out of 7 races and appeared to be virtually invincible. Yet Fierceness's win at Florida was a full second faster than Forte's 2023 Florida Derby win. Post position will obviously have a factor, as will the weather, but Fierceness should be a major factor at the end and figure in any winning combinations. His status as a favorite is certainly warranted.

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