EPL Premier League Soccer Title Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 2/21/2023

Title Odds:

Manchester City -110

Arsenal +110

Manchester United +1200

Table:
Arsenal: 54 Points, 15 Games Remaining

Manchester City: 52 Points, 14 Games Remaining

Manchester United: 49 Points, 14 Games Remaining

The Premier League title race is approaching the home stretch, and there are still 3 teams with a legitimate shot at lifting the trophy. Arsenal is looking for their 1st title since their invincible 2004 season and will be featured in the Champions League next season for the first time since 2017. They entered the season with low expectations and were not expected to be in the title race with +4000 odds to lift the trophy. Their closest competition comes from Manchester City, who came into the season with -175 odds to win their 5th title in the last 6 seasons. Pep Guardiola has created a juggernaut in the Premier League. And despite the point deficit, the defending champions are still the betting favorites to emerge victorious. Their inter city rivals, Manchester United, can’t be forgotten, as a recent surge has thrust them back into the title picture. They’ve won 3 and drawn 1 in their last 4 games and are within striking distance of the leaders once again.

The stage is set, and there will be plenty of dramatic soccer played in the final months of the season. Despite the narrow field, there is still plenty of money to be made in the title winner market. Let’s dive in.

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Arsenal: +110

Despite their underdog status, it would be wrong to start with anyone other than the league leaders. Mikel Arteta has revitalized a bland Arsenal squad and has brought the team back into the spotlight. His men got off to a red-hot start, winning 14 of their first 16 games. This has been no fluke, as Arsenal has been investing in their youth players, and have the 2nd youngest team in the league. Leading the attack is Real Madrid outcast Martin Ødegaard. The Norwegian magician is silky smooth on the ball and is able to create chances from seemingly lost plays. His 8 goals and 6 assists don’t tell the whole story, as the 24-year-old is the lynchpin of almost every Arsenal attack and is critical to their success in the middle of the park. Joining him in the attack is rising star Bukayo Saka, who at just 21-years-old is one of the longest serving senior members of the squad. He’s already in his 4th full season with the team and comes to play regardless of the opponent. While he only has 9 goals and 8 assists, his work rate and playmaking abilities ensure he’s one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet. In defense, Gabriel and William Saliba have been solid protectors of Aaron Ramsdale’s goal, and there are really no holes in the lineup. However, things have not always been easy, as Arsenal’s leading goal scorer, Gabriel Jesus, went down with a knee injury during the World Cup, but the team hasn’t missed a beat as Eddie Nketiah has filled in admirably, scoring 4 goals in his 9 starts.

Arsenal still have a lead over Manchester City, but they have entered a rough patch at the wrong time. They’ve won just 1 of their last 4 games, with losses to Everton and title rival Manchester City, allowing City to take a brief lead last week. Arteta has remained calm, as even the best teams have poor stretches of play. He has no doubt his team will be able to remain ahead of Manchester City. And considering 5 of their next 6 games are against bottom half opposition, Arsenal must not be dropping points against inferior foes if they are to remain on top.

Manchester City: -110

Manchester City is the deserved favorite to lift the trophy, as their dominance over the last 5 seasons is something rarely seen in top-flight English soccer. They have won 4 of the last 5 titles, and serial winner Pep Guardiola is always thinking up ways to unlock his opponents. The Spanish manager has won trophies wherever he goes, and Manchester City has benefitted from his tactics time and time again. While their squad is very deep, and talented in every position, there is one man who has been a real difference maker for Manchester City. Erling Haaland has taken the league by storm, scoring 26 goals in 23 games this season. The Norwegian star appears to be superhuman. And despite his success in the Bundesliga last season, few people expected his impact in the Premier League to be so decisive. He’s well on his way to breaking the single season scoring record of 34 goals, and always finds himself in the right spot to convert chances. He’s fast, strong, and is a lethal finisher, and the 22-year-old will continue terrorizing opposition defenders for the better part of the next decade. Of course, Kevin De Bruyne has been delivering assists to Haaland more often than not, as the Belgian midfielder has already amassed 12 assists this season. Despite his offensive talent, De Bruyne tracks back and helps out his defenders and is a critical piece of the Manchester City squad day in and day out.

While they are still well within reach of another Premier League title, Manchester City have not been as dominant as we’ve come to expect over the last few seasons. They’re on pace for just 82 points, which would be their second lowest total since 2016. Guardiola has been accused of over-thinking simple matches, and his complicated tactics can fail to defuse a simple low block. Teams who line up across Manchester City know they will be in for plenty of defending. And when Manchester City is wasteful in front of goal, they can drop points despite dominating play. In their last match against Nottingham Forest, they had 73% possession and outshot Forest 23-4 and still split the points in a 1-1 draw. Manchester City will need to convert their dominance into goals, or they will let Arsenal make a shock run to English glory.

Manchester United: +1200

I’ll be brief here; Manchester United deserve to still be mentioned in the title race, but will need to be near perfect if they are to remain within striking distance in the coming months. Arsenal is on pace for an 89-point finish. And if Manchester United win all of their final 14 games, they will finish on 92 points. They have already played Arsenal and Manchester City twice this season, and will need help if they are to make up ground.

What a roller coaster season it has been for Manchester United. They came into the season with +2800 odds to win the title and were expected to finish outside the top 4 for the second season in a row. The squad that walks out of the tunnel now is very different from the one we saw at the start of the season. Christiano Ronaldo has departed to Saudi Arabia, but Erik ten Hag has managed to keep putting points on the board, ensuring his job remains safe at the very illustrious club. Marcus Rashfrod has potted 14 goals this season and is just 3 goals away from matching his career best. Bruno Fernandes has been instrumental going forward, with 5 goals and 6 assists, as the Portuguese playmaker managed to put the Ronaldo saga behind him and create new chemistry with Rashford up top.

As mentioned, Manchester United will need to be near perfect if they are to emerge victorious this season, as their fate is out of their hands. Tough tests await them, as they go on the road to Newcastle and Liverpool in the next month, and their final trajectory will likely be determined before the 1st of April.

Betting Prediction:

Right off the bat, I will not be betting on Manchester United. While they have been playing solid soccer over the last few weeks, down the home stretch I expect Arsenal to put their cushion at the top to use, or serial winners Manchester City to win once again. I can’t deny there is value in their +1200 price, I can’t rationalize expecting both teams in front of them to stumble.

For the title, I have to side with Arsenal. I can understand the allure of betting on Manchester City, as they have proven they can win, but Arsenal have also proven they can win this season. On numerous occasions, Arsenal have stolen points in stoppage time, including two stoppage time goals in their most recent match against Aston Villa, picking up a 4-2 victory. Being able to pick up valuable points despite not playing well is what champions do, and Arsenal have become excellent at that. There is no doubt Manchester City has the experience and talent advantage, but the youngsters playing in North London want it more and will do everything in their power to get over the line. A 2-point lead with a game in hand is nice, but Arsenal cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. Ødegaard and Saka have been phenomenal in attack, and Jesus is expected back in around a month. They have been able to hold back Manchester City without him. And if they are still leading upon his re-arrival into the squad, Arsenal will lift the Premier League title for the first time in almost 20 years, cashing our +110 bet in the process.

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EPL Premier League Soccer Title Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

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