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Elite Eight Bracket Predictions with National Championship Odds

by Joey House - 3/24/2023

Elite Eight bracket picks Markquis Nowell Kansas State Wildcats

One of the greatest things about March Madness is that just when you thought you saw it all, something new happens. The 2023 NCAA Tournament will mark the first time ever that a No. 1 seed will not be playing in the Elite Eight. After a wild second day of the Sweet 16, the entire field is set to see who will earn the right to head to the 2023 Final Four in Houston.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

East Region

National Championship Odds: (3) Kansas State +1200 (9) FAU +1800

Current Spread: Kansas State -2/144

No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic overcame a 5-point halftime deficit to defeat Tennessee, 62-55, to earn FAU their first Sweet 16 victory in school history.  Showing that they simply wanted to win more, FAU, with only two players over 6-foot-4, out-rebounded a Vols team that has only three players under 6-foot-4, 40 rebounds to 36. One of the nation's leading 3-point shooting teams, the Owls managed to hit only 8-27 (29.6%) from beyond the arc. However, Tennessee only shot 6-23 (26.1%) themselves from 3-point land. FAU went 12-16 from the foul line, and the Vols went 7-12. The difference in 3-point shots and free throws was the ballgame.

Kansas State needed overtime to defeat Michigan State 98-93 in the highest-scoring game so far in the tournament. KSU's phenom All-American guard, Markquis Nowell set an NCAA tournament record with 19 assists, which was one more than the entire Michigan State squad had. However, he turned his ankle early in the second half. During his absence, Michigan State took their first lead of the second half. He returned, with the ankle heavily taped, and immediately tied the game back up with a three. He was clearly not 100% though for the remainder of the game, and that situation will need to be monitored before making your wagers.

FAU is going to try and don the Cinderella cloak one more time to make the first-ever Final Four, but I just don't see that happening. FAU's only hope is that Nowell aggravates his tender ankle, because, when he's not on the floor, the Wildcats look lost. Even if Nowell is only at 75%, that's better than most 100% people. FAU can score in bunches with the three, but the Wildcats can keep them at a distance to advance to next weekend's Final Four.

Prediction: Kansas State 84, Florida Atlantic 76

West Region

National Championship Odds: (3) Gonzaga +550 (4) UConn +500

Current Spread: UConn -2/153.5

These two teams had very different experiences on Thursday evening to reach the Elite Eight. UConn shut down a talented but turmoiled Arkansas team, 88-65. Gonzaga fought a heavyweight matchup against UCLA in a rematch of the 2021 Final Four that featured the same result and point differential as the Zags won 79-76 (they won 93-90 in '21). I used heavyweight as a reference, because at halftime UCLA was up by 13 points and in complete control. Gonzaga fought their way back to take their own commanding nine-point lead with 1:23 remaining, only to watch UCLA come back firing. The Bruin's Amari Bailey completed the comeback when his 3-pointer gave UCLA a 1-point lead with 13 ticks on the clock.  Gonzaga's Julian Strawther answered the call with his own 3-point shot with 7 seconds remaining, and the Bulldogs retook a two-point lead. UCLA turned it over, and the Zags were victorious, 79-76.

The Huskies really haven't been challenged at all in their games. They've been able to build nice cushions and didn't have to expend any extra energy. Gonzaga is the polar opposite of that statement. They have been forced to play from behind the past two contests, trailing at halftime to both TCU and UCLA. Each time, they've obviously been able to rally. However, in a single-elimination format like March Madness, those games tap into your energy reserves and rapidly deplete them.

Gonzaga is first in the country in the Offensive Adjusted Efficiency. Unfortunately for them, UConn is third in OAE and 13th in Defensive Adjusted Efficiency, whereas Gonzaga is 73rd. The Zags are a top 10 team in shooting 3-pointers, and UConn is a top 20 team in defending the 3. UConn simply matches up very well against the Zags. I think the Huskies are finally going to be tested a bit because Gonzaga is a solid team from top to bottom and can get back into any contest because of the 3-pointers. In the end, the Huskies' batteries aren't as drained as much as the Bulldogs is.

Prediction: UConn 77, Gonzaga 71

South Region

National Championship Odds: (5) San Diego State +900 (6) Creighton +550

Current Spread: Creighton -2/133.5

San Diego State showed tremendous grit and moxie in their Sweet 16 game against Alabama. After taking a 5-point halftime lead, SDSU then proceeded to lose this lead, and with 11:40 left in the game, trailed Bama, 48-39. Over the final 11:31 of the game, SDSU doubled up the Crimson Tide, 32-16, to win going away 71-64.  The Aztecs had nine players score four or more points and 10 players play 14 minutes or more. A beautiful example of peaking at the right time, SDSU's win gave them the 4th longest current winning streak in the country.

Creighton, who played the role of Cinderella quite a few times themselves, finally played the role of the evil stepmother as they sent this year's fairytale story Princeton back to New Jersey, defeating the Tigers, 86-75. Creighton was almost the polar opposite of SDSU as they had one bench player that logged 21 minutes and two others that combined for only seven.

The cornerstones of Creighton basketball are fundamentally sound basketball and superior 3-point shooting. This year's squad is not much different: third in the nation in fouling their opponent, 39th in the country in 3-pointers made, and 91st in defense in turnovers. They also have almost an inch of average height advantage.

But San Diego State has the edge in experience and depth of bench. Playing in such emotionally charged games in such a cluster can be draining. If SDSU can keep this game close until the end, I think they might have fresher legs to propel them to victory and on to Houston.

Prediction: San Diego State 72, Creighton 69

Midwest Region

National Championship Odds: (2) Texas +360 (5) Miami, Fla +1100

Current Spread: Texas-4/150

With all of the turmoil and controversy that has surrounded the Texas basketball program this season, it would be understandable if the Longhorns were unfocused. It may have had the opposite effect and galvanized Texas, as they never trailed Xavier in a dominant 83-71 victory.

Miami was supposed to have been an upset by the sexy, vogue pick of Drake. Instead, they have used that doubt as fuel easily winning their next two contests. The last victory, an 89-75 win over Houston, denied the Cougars a chance to play in the Final Four in their hometown.

The Longhorn's biggest concern is 6-foot-9 senior forward Dylan Disu and a bone bruise in his left foot. He suffered this injury during the Penn State game and still posted a double-double. Against Xavier, he started but then very quickly was taken out. He emerged awhile afterward from the locker room wearing a walking boot. At best he is a game-time decision.

These two teams are rather similar on offense, with each team ranked in the Top 15 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.  I believe this game will turn on Texas' perimeter defense.  Miami is 48th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. However, Texas has faced, in order, the 1st, 9th, and 6th-ranked teams, in the nation, in 3-point percentage. They have held these three teams to a collective 18 out of 60 for an impressive 30%. Sunday's matchup is more of the same for these Longhorns as they punch their ticket for a short trip to Houston.

Prediction: Texas 84, Miami 72

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