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Handicapping Early Super Bowl Odds

by Joey House - 1/24/2024

Handicapping early Super Bowl odds Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

Long known for not enjoying the present but always looking ahead, oddsmakers have set lines for the four different matchup possibilities, as well as the odds of each team winning Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. Since Doc's sports has long been known for finding hidden value and picking winners, we'll take a look at these numbers and see if there is any odd that is worth investing in.

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Current Odds to Win Super Bowl 58

San Francisco 49ers (+145): Before the start of the regular 2023 regular season, San Francisco's odds to win the Super Bowl 58 were tied for the 3rd-shortest with Buffalo at +900. They began the playoffs as the +215 favorite and have continued to see those odds shrink.

Baltimore Ravens (+210): The Ravens have had the largest reduction in value of their Super Bowl odds, starting the season at +1800 to the current second-lowest odds of +210. Oddsmakers are punishing those who jumped on the bandwagon a bit too late.

Kansas City Chiefs (+350): Kansas City was the favorite at the start of the season to win Super Bowl 58 at +600. Due to their somewhat rocky regular season, you'll still get a decent return if they can navigate the next two rounds of the playoffs.

Detroit Lions (+700): The Lions were a very popular and sexy "sleeper" pick before the season began, going off at +2200. They validated that trust with their season-opening win in Kansas City and now are the biggest dog to win it all.

In addition to those odds on who will win it all, there are odds on the four different possible outcomes.

San Francisco to beat Baltimore: +280

Baltimore to beat San Francisco: +300

Kansas City to beat San Francisco: +500

San Francisco to beat Kansas City: +550

Baltimore to beat Detroit: +975

Detroit to beat Baltimore: +1400

Kansas City to beat Detroit: +1500

Detroit to beat Kansas City: +2000

Finally, these are the spreads and totals of those hypothetical matchups:

San Francisco (-1.5 -110) vs. Baltimore +1.5/47.5

San Francisco (-2.5 -120) vs. Kansas City +2.5/49

Detroit (+3.5 -110) vs. Baltimore -3.5/50

Detroit (+3 -110) vs. Kansas City -3/52

Discovering the Advantages of Early Betting

The first thing that you must make sure of is your sportsbook's rules involving hypothetical wagering. Most books will void the bet if that team fails to make it to the game being wagered on. This can allow bettors to be slightly more aggressive and take full advantage of the enhanced odds that the unknown future holds.

Betting early isn't just about predicting who is going to win or lose; it is about strategically positioning yourself to maximize returns. Some of these wagers offer very lucrative prices. For example, if you believe that Detroit is going to go into San Francisco and return with a date in Las Vegas in hand, getting in now at +1400 against Baltimore is fantastic, compared to the best moneyline of about +350 if the spread is a touchdown.

Another aspect that needs to be considered is the possibility of taking an early cashout of these wagers. Imagine you wagered $1000 on Detroit to defeat Kansas City at +2000. With the liability of a potential $20,000 loss facing them, many online sportsbooks will offer you an early cashout of three to four thousand dollars. While that is much less than the potential payday, it is a guaranteed profit and a nice payout for just winning one game.

Unveiling the Perils of Wagering Early

As can be expected, the lack of information and knowledge are the most compelling reasons to make a more traditional wager in the common time frame. Placing a wager on Kansas City before the AFC Championship Game is great, but that wager could go drastically wrong if QB Patrick Mahomes is injured against a tough Ravens defense. Ask any Florida State backer who may have bet on them to make the playoff halfway through this past season how they feel about dynamic wagering, and they'll likely sing a different tune.

It isn't just potential injuries though that can cause frustration in early wagering. Severe weather conditions (yes, we're talking about you Buffalo) can impede offenses and change the course of a game. Granted, this Super Bowl is being played in a dome, so that isn't particularly an issue here. However, in general, weather can be an adverse risk of early wagering.

Conclusion

Just like any other form of gambling, early betting is filled with risk and uncertainty. However, the increased level of uncertainty also leads to a more lucrative reward. I happen to believe that Kansas City, with its experience and significant coaching advantage, will upset Baltimore and then defeat San Francisco in Super Bowl 58. Locking in the wager now will pay out +500 after Travis Kelce gives Taylor Swift his game ball for 120 yards receiving and two touchdown receptions. But waiting until after Sunday, when the game is set, will eliminate almost all of that value.

The only question that is left to be asked is: Will Taylor appear with Travis in the "I'm going to Disney World" commercial after he wins the Super Bowl MVP?

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