Dodge Challenger 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 05/08/2008
Michael Waltrip starts his 700th Sprint Cup race and Jeff Gordon will try to jump start his season as he tries for his eighth win at the Lady in Black, Darlington Raceway, NASCAR's second oldest track, on Saturday night at 7:20 p.m. EST.
They've recently resurfaced the 1.366 "egg" shaped oval that is unique in that one end of the track is wider than the other. Denny Hamlin is most likely on alert that Darlington shreds tires with its abrasive surface and speeds in excess of 170 mph. If you are looking for action look no further than the long, long curve of Turn 2 where drivers trade paint and end up in the wall without warning. At Darlington drivers race the track as much as they race each other.
Who will win the Dodge Challenger 500?
They have changed the race's name this year from the Dodge Avenger to the Dodge Challenger this year. If you'll remember last year's Mother's Day event was rescheduled due to rain and was run on the 13th with Jeff Gordon winning the race. Rounding out the top five in last year's race were Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman and Carl Edwards.
This year the same five drivers could be there again with the inclusion of Kyle Busch. Toyota has been so dominant this year, so it could likely be another visit to victory lane for Joe Gibbs Racing's triple threat of Busch, Stewart, and Hamlin.
If Jeff Gordon hopes to make a serious run at his fifth Sprint Cup (and his first since 2001) he'll have to do something and do it soon. The four-time champ needs to repeat the same successes he had last year at this time when he sprinted away with the lead. Last April and May Gordon won three races and finished fourth twice. He'll need more of the same this year and what better place than Darlington a place he loves to race.
Third-year crew chief Steve Letarte needs to figure out how to put the No. 24 back in victory lane. What won it here last year for Gordon was his pit strategy and experience. If Gordon can do that and have a faster car than he has had recently then he is the driver to beat on Saturday night.
Last Saturday night our pick, Denny Hamlin (7/1), set the record for the driver who led the most laps at Richmond (381) but did not actually win the race-thanks to a deflated right front tire with 14-laps remaining in the race. Hamlin stayed out until he drew an intentional caution that put Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in a position to break his two-year drought in Sprint Cup. After restart it looked like Junior had the race won until a controversial wreck with Kyle Busch happened and Clint Bowyer held on for a surprising victory. As a result Hamlin dropped two spots to sixth place and Bowyer moved up three spots to fourth place on the Sprint Cup leader board.
Pick! Jeff Gordon (7/1)
Dodge Challenger 500 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Dodge Challenger 500 at Darlington. Over the wall my NASCAR matchups record stands at 6-8 as I lost one unit on my Square Tire Pick, backing Kevin Harvick against the fastest driver on the tour, Tony Stewart. Stewart managed to run a solid race and finished in fourth place while Harvick finished in eighth place. This brings my record over the wall to -3.80 units on the season as I find myself running under caution after 10 of 36 races on the season.
Long Odds Value Pick
At Richmond we picked Jeff Burton as our 18/1 long shot. He ran an unremarkable race and never seriously challenged the leader until Hamlin's right front tire slowed down the No. 11 car considerably. Burton finished the race in 11th place and lost first place to Kyle Busch, who now has a slim 18-point lead over Burton with 1,495 total points. This week we are going to go with a legitimate live long shot. The No. 43 Speed Racer/Cheerios Chevrolet driven by Bobby Labonte. With an average finish of 15 at Darlington, Labonte has notched one win, five top-five and 11 top-10 finishes. And if you are looking for experience on intermediate tracks Labonte is a good choice as he has won 17 times and finished in the top five 78 times. Labonte has quite steadily moved up in the standings and last weekend's 13th-place was good enough to move him up four points in the standings. I'm under no illusions and a 12-place is most likely. But with the new asphalt surface and Darlington's predilection for uncertainty Labonte is as good a pick as other drivers with half or better the long odds than the Petty Enterprises driver. And after-all he'll be driving a Dodge.
Pick! Bobby Labonte (100/1)
Square Tire Pick
Gregg Biffle (-1.30)/Jeff Burton (even)
Can Burton keep up with Kyle Busch on the Sprint Cup leader board or will another driver supplant Richard Childress Racings' No. 31 driver for second place? At Richmond last weekend Burton's Chevrolet finished in 11th while Biffle's Ford finished in 14th place. Biffle does boast a better average finish (10.7) at Darlington than Burton (11.7), but consider that Burton has six more top-five finishes and 11 more top-10 finishes than Biffle at Darlington. I think as long as he gets all four tires when he pits Burton should be able to avoid any mishaps involving blown tires. This year Burton remains as one of the few drivers that has been able to compete every lap of the season and I don't see that changing on Saturday night.
Pick! Jeff Burton (even)
*Dodge Challenger 500 Odds
Darlington Raceway, Sat, May 10 (7:20pm EST)
A.J. Allmendinger 150/1
Bill Elliott 200/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 50/1
Clint Bowyer 16/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/2
Dave Blaney 150/1
David Gilliland 200/1
David Ragan 50/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 13/2
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 14/1
J.J. Yeley 150/1
Jamie McMurray 75/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 11/2
Joe Nemechek 200/1
John Andretti 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 80/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Ken Schrader 150/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 16/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 150/1
Paul Menard 125/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 125/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 150/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Sterling Marlin 150/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Travis Kvapil 125/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog