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2023 Denver Broncos Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2023

Denver Broncos predictions Russell Wilson

The 2022 Denver Broncos were the perfect example of why square, public gamblers lose money betting on the NFL.

Heading into last season, the Broncos had Super Bowl hype. The addition of potential Hall of Fame quarterback Russell Wilson, the excitement of new ownership and a fresh coaching regime, and a slew of free agent and draft pickups, all created an air of certainty around the 2022 Broncos.

Denver had the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl entering last season, and their 10.5 season win total number was topped by just two teams, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Groupthink and conformity are poison in sports betting. The level of certainty around the 2022 Broncos was pure venom.

What actually happened? Wilson was a dud. Nate Hackett was an in-over-his-head clown who didn’t survive the season. The predictions of Wilson as an MVP candidate and a 13- or 14-win season all crashed in spectacular fashion.

The Broncos went 5-12. It was their sixth straight losing season.

To put that into perspective, the Broncos had only six losing seasons in their previous 35 years prior to this six-year losing streak.

Sean Payton has been brought in to clean up the mess. Expectations have been tempered, though, and uncertainty outweighs confidence around this squad as bettors remain skeptical of a group that burned them last year.

I see an opportunity.

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DENVER BRONCOS 2023 OFFENSE

Wilson set career-lows in completion percentage, touchdowns and passer rating last year. He was lampooned by media and fans, and his teammates weren’t buying his phony, corny, brand-managed style in the locker room.

We’re going to find out a lot about Wilson this year. His first season outside of Pete Carroll’s cocoon was a massive flop. How he responds here will determine the final act of the soon-to-be-35-year-old’s career.

If Wilson has another poor season, it won’t be because he doesn’t have help.

The front office spent big to upgrade an offensive line that allowed the most sacks (63) in the NFL last season. Pro Bowl tackle Mike McGlinchey, mauling guard Ben Powers, and former Seattle center Kyle Fuller were added to bolster the front five.

Denver’s receiver room was one of the deepest in the league until K.J. Hamler went on the NFI with a heart issue and Tim Patrick was lost for the season to injury (again). Jerry Jeudy, aging Courtland Sutton, rookie Marvin Mims and tight end Albert Ogwuegbunam need to be a dynamic combination for Wilson to get back to normal.

Throw in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who worked with Payton in New Orleans and was a bust with the Chargers last season, and this attack has Top 10 potential.

Denver does have a big issue in the running game. They signed Samaje Perine, but he is not a lead back. Supposed No. 1 back Javonte Williams is attempting to come back from two torn knee ligaments, and his early season availability is up in the air.

With nearly $9 million in available cap space remaining, don’t be surprised if the Broncos make a move for one of the free agent running backs still on the market.

DENVER BRONCOS 2023 DEFENSE

The 2022 Broncos defense finished in the Top 10 in total defense for the second straight year and the sixth time in the last nine years. They did that despite almost zero help from the offense, which averaged a league-worst 16.6 points per game.

Vance Joseph, who was a spectacular failure as Broncos head coach in 2017-18, is back as the team’s defensive coordinator. Joseph’s track record as a DC is somewhere between mediocre-to-awful, so we will see if he is capable of keeping this team in the league’s top half.

Denver has difference-makers on all three levels. Free agent pickup Zach Allen will try to replace departed Dre’Mont Jones. Linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton are 100+-tackle machines. And safety Justin Simmons and corner Pat Surtain are among the elite in their position groups.

Not to mention veteran ballers like Frank Clark, Randy Gregory and Kareem Jackson.

Depth is an issue. Especially across the defensive line. But their starting 11 has no real weaknesses. And if they get more help from the offense – Denver was No. 31 in the league in time of possession on the road – this group will be formidable.

DENVER BRONCOS 2023 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 10     4:25 PM            vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Sep 17     4:25 PM            vs. Washington Redskins

Sun, Sep 24     1:00 PM            @ Miami Dolphins

Sun, Oct 1         1:00 PM            @ Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 8         4:25 PM            vs. New York Jets

Thu, Oct 12     8:15 PM            @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Oct 22      4:25 PM            vs. Green Bay Packers

Sun, Oct 29      4:25 PM            vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Mon, Nov 13   8:15 PM            @ Buffalo Bills

Sun, Nov 19     8:20 PM            vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Nov 26     4:05 PM            vs. Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 3        4:05 PM            @ Houston Texans

Sun, Dec 10     4:25 PM            @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Dec 17     7:00 PM            @ Detroit Lions

Sun, Dec 24     8:15 PM            vs. New England Patriots

Sun, Dec 31     4:25 PM            vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Jan 7         7:00 PM            @ Las Vegas Raiders

DENVER BRONCOS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Last year the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds were No. 7 in the league. Now they are No. 17. Last year the Broncos’ season win total was tied for No. 3 in the league. Now they are No. 19.

I smell value.

I’m bullish on Denver. I absolutely believe in Sean Payton, one of the best coaches in the NFL over the last 40 years. And I’ve seen Wilson be too good for too long not to think that he can put it together for at least one more season before Father Time catches up.

One of the unspoken issues that helped submarine Denver’s season was their absurd injury luck. They were No. 32 in adjusted games lost to injury. That came after they finished 2021 No. 27 in games lost to injury.

So better injury luck alone would improve Denver’s prospects.

Next, factor in Denver’s 4-9 mark in one-score games. Toss in their absurd 19.3 offensive yards per point (No. 32), and sprinkle their -1.4 Pythagorean Wins Expectation number, and this is a squad that is just aching for a bounce back.

Denver is in a brutal division. They crossover with the no-joke AFC East. There are zero soft spots on the schedule. So, for this team to improve, they will really have to earn it.

I’m buying. There’s too much talent on offense. The defense just needs to avoid total collapse. I think that this year’s Broncos are going to be what people expected to see last season. There won’t be a seventh straight losing season. Take ‘over’ 8.5 wins.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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